can be obscenely high which ergo equates to a very high stock market indeed.
A 10 year US note at 3.48% comes out to 28.7 PE for the SP500.
Additionally, that doesn't include growth, and growth will happen with stocks. So lets assume 1% growth then 3.48%-1%=2.48% which comes out to a PE of 40.3
So if deflation is in the cards the stock market will sky rocket, even from here, especially for large cap financially sound corporations. I think small caps are popping due to their unhealthy state and their need to sell to a larger company.
If inflation happens, retail gets killed but manufacturing and farming related to where inflation occurs will soar then from there the economy will balance itself out. And of course all debts will be repaid but business will not be back to normal.
Make sense?
Friday, September 18, 2009
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