So my comments may be sporadic. I didnt have time to update my p+l and will try to make the time.
Have a good week and holiday.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
I've been noticing that
when you buy stocks you have to look for reasons NOT to buy them. Skeptical is the key word.
It is funny that Mr. Cramer this morning mentions the fact that he misses many opportunities but it is the ones he likes that he worries over. And he likens it to Mr. Buffet's approach on picking stocks which is like being up to bat with no strikes - meaning you can wait for your pitch.
10AM is a key number. If bad, the market should rally. If surprisingly good, the market sells off?
I am not looking to buy or sell today, unless of course, stops are hit. I am going to post on Sunday.
The week before major holidays such as Labor Day tend to be bullish. So we can either day trade this move or patiently wait for trends to merge and set up for the post Labor Day market-something which I am leaning torwards.
It is funny that Mr. Cramer this morning mentions the fact that he misses many opportunities but it is the ones he likes that he worries over. And he likens it to Mr. Buffet's approach on picking stocks which is like being up to bat with no strikes - meaning you can wait for your pitch.
10AM is a key number. If bad, the market should rally. If surprisingly good, the market sells off?
I am not looking to buy or sell today, unless of course, stops are hit. I am going to post on Sunday.
The week before major holidays such as Labor Day tend to be bullish. So we can either day trade this move or patiently wait for trends to merge and set up for the post Labor Day market-something which I am leaning torwards.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Steak Dinner
I just had a pleasant steak dinner with two of my friends. And all I thought about was the argument I had with my doorman. You just can't take things to personal or it effects the other, more joyful, parts of your life.
It is the same with investing.
It is the same with investing.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
My broker called
and mentioned that I take a look at BCSI. That was one of my first recommendations using the rolling index. For the past few days, it has only picked up stocks on the down side because, though stocks like BCSI have popped, the momentum is still weak. It is not a momentum picking indicator but a trend following one.
I would love to get 16 pnt pops but I would rather hit singles and doubles than hit a few home runs and strike out a lot. I guess what I'm saying is that I like OBP - On Base Percentage and whatever way can get it.
It is a transitory time in the market and volatile. So I still maintain it is better to be committed to the trend than a quick buck here and there. And if the trend changes, we will be ready.
That is the theory behind my index.
I would love to get 16 pnt pops but I would rather hit singles and doubles than hit a few home runs and strike out a lot. I guess what I'm saying is that I like OBP - On Base Percentage and whatever way can get it.
It is a transitory time in the market and volatile. So I still maintain it is better to be committed to the trend than a quick buck here and there. And if the trend changes, we will be ready.
That is the theory behind my index.
Cover BLUD
BLUD has turned to a potential failed double top and should have rallied.
My indicators don't show any buys today. But a bunch of shorts of which I'm comfortable with what we have.
My indicators don't show any buys today. But a bunch of shorts of which I'm comfortable with what we have.
The market's trend is down
unless proven otherwise. It is correcting an oversold area. So I want to be short stocks that are in obvious downtrends: weak sectors and weaker stocks. I don't necessarily like to time the market to the second because that is a fool's errand. So patience is key.
But I also realize some stocks have done well in the sell off and even better in this rally: so we need to be focused on them as well.
That is my gameplan.
4Long:6Short (2 are etfs which shouldn't be too volatile)
But I also realize some stocks have done well in the sell off and even better in this rally: so we need to be focused on them as well.
That is my gameplan.
4Long:6Short (2 are etfs which shouldn't be too volatile)
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
LONG SXE , SHORT UST LVB FFG SPLS
These will be our shorts for awhile. All unique set ups.
We will be long BLUD SXE
and SHORT UST LVB FFG SPLS
and long one index that shorts the Russell1000
All other stocks I will look to go long
We will be long BLUD SXE
and SHORT UST LVB FFG SPLS
and long one index that shorts the Russell1000
All other stocks I will look to go long
Monday, August 20, 2007
Nattie Gas Batting Slump
Now that was an amazing percentage drop concerning natural gas. But that doesn't make me worried because we didn't buy futures contracts nor leveraged ourselves. What we did is buy a spread which needs time to develop. As well as buy companies that are overlooked by the marketplace which causes us to buy at a fair price. I'm very bullish this market because I put my money where the BIG money is going. And as mentioned, NG commerical interest is at record highs. This has nothing to do with this hurricane, but something else: terrorist attack, Russian problems with shipments of nat gas, or hurricane spiralling effect - who knows. Possibly, another hedge fund or bank that traded in Nat Gas had to liquidate positions-who knows. But as Newton said, "if I contributed to society it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants." That is how one makes big money in the market. And that is why I have a hard time day trading since we are trying to track the footprints of where those big elephants are going; instead of clipping a few bucks here and there from the small traders which the news media did today when paniced buyers of nat gas futures fled the market. And trust me, the commercials were gleefully picking away at 15% off nat gas futures.
Drug Use on Fox
As I had a late lunch today, I saw that Fox news mentioned that Foreign Policy magazine is behind legalization of drugs and actually showing someone creating a line of coke. Fox news, the bastion of conservative views, didn't have some arch conservative on ranting about the moral issues of it, but instead mentioning the failure of the war on drugs.
I bring this up because if this indeed becomes legal one should be long the big drug pushers such as Altria, Reynolds, Carolina Group.
And they will pay a dividend as you wait.
Ironically, the time it takes to legalize said items will probably be the same time that nuclear power becomes acceptable. IS THERE SOME CORRELATION UNDERLYING THESE TWO INVESTMENT CLASSES???
I bring this up because if this indeed becomes legal one should be long the big drug pushers such as Altria, Reynolds, Carolina Group.
And they will pay a dividend as you wait.
Ironically, the time it takes to legalize said items will probably be the same time that nuclear power becomes acceptable. IS THERE SOME CORRELATION UNDERLYING THESE TWO INVESTMENT CLASSES???
Trade Update as of Monday
1)Place NLR-the nuclear ETF on long term portfolio AT 36.89. We will have FXS, FXY, NLR, GLD
2)Place NBR 28.98. This will be part of the speculative portfolio. ROSE, QQQQ/RWM-pare trade, UNG/USO-pare trade
3) Long Blud, SJF 74.10 ($2000 worth)
2)Place NBR 28.98. This will be part of the speculative portfolio. ROSE, QQQQ/RWM-pare trade, UNG/USO-pare trade
3) Long Blud, SJF 74.10 ($2000 worth)
Buy SJF
This is an etf that shorts the Russell 1000 (value index)
Im not really inclined either to be short individual stocks today. The market should rally but as can be seen today, very weak. The trend is still down.
We will be in BLUD,
SJF Im making this $2000 due to it not being a stock.
Im not really inclined either to be short individual stocks today. The market should rally but as can be seen today, very weak. The trend is still down.
We will be in BLUD,
SJF Im making this $2000 due to it not being a stock.
The Media are Liars
Here is a classic set up. Hurricanes in the news again, and oil and natural gas are down - with the flippant comment "this too shall pass"
The commercial interests in natural gas are at record levels. The corporations that are actively involved in the production and distribution of natural gas are buying more contracts than they produce. The only reason they would be doing that is if their production might be interrupted. These companies don't pay for overpriced gas unless they foresee miserable weather ahead. So they can buy high, and sell HIGHER!
So as an investor/ speculator it would be prudent to own some underpriced natural gas plays: NBR, ROSE, XTO (didnt recommend since it is actually a conservative investment)
I would change my opinion immediately if the commercial interests change their viewpoint.
As for the market in general, I think this week will be called "Volatile Week Hangover" - meaning things are going to be in a ho-hum trading range.
The commercial interests in natural gas are at record levels. The corporations that are actively involved in the production and distribution of natural gas are buying more contracts than they produce. The only reason they would be doing that is if their production might be interrupted. These companies don't pay for overpriced gas unless they foresee miserable weather ahead. So they can buy high, and sell HIGHER!
So as an investor/ speculator it would be prudent to own some underpriced natural gas plays: NBR, ROSE, XTO (didnt recommend since it is actually a conservative investment)
I would change my opinion immediately if the commercial interests change their viewpoint.
As for the market in general, I think this week will be called "Volatile Week Hangover" - meaning things are going to be in a ho-hum trading range.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Naturally Wild
is the way I term myself concerning natural gas. But the futures contract is so volatile I am trying to find a better investment vehicle to maximize profits.
Today in Barrons, they covered NBR which I have liked for awhile, since it is cheap on a PE and Book Value perspective. But what I didnt realize is that NBR's profits are tied to NG prices. I thought drillers were for Crude Oil only. So if my bullish scenario in NG plays out, the expected 40-50 price range mentioned in Barrons should be hit.
So lets add this to speculative AT CLOSE on Monday.
Today in Barrons, they covered NBR which I have liked for awhile, since it is cheap on a PE and Book Value perspective. But what I didnt realize is that NBR's profits are tied to NG prices. I thought drillers were for Crude Oil only. So if my bullish scenario in NG plays out, the expected 40-50 price range mentioned in Barrons should be hit.
So lets add this to speculative AT CLOSE on Monday.
Deserving It
Last week should have been more profitable than it was. Actually showing a loss for the week when everything looked so good.
When things are overly optimistic or wildly pessimistic, it pays just to stand back, which I should have done on Thurday. Though we got out of most of our positions, I remained short and chose 2 more stocks to be short in. I am not second guessing myself but am trying to developed a disciplined approach that will maximise profit and minimize emotional decisions.
1) Getting out at the open appears foolish. At least wait till 10:00 or the close to see where the dust settles
2) If one has outperformed the market in a significant way, it is time to wait for next week.
3) Don't let Mr. Cramer effect your entry and exits points. Take his advice for what it is but it is ultimately your money and your research that decides the length of ones trade.
When things are overly optimistic or wildly pessimistic, it pays just to stand back, which I should have done on Thurday. Though we got out of most of our positions, I remained short and chose 2 more stocks to be short in. I am not second guessing myself but am trying to developed a disciplined approach that will maximise profit and minimize emotional decisions.
1) Getting out at the open appears foolish. At least wait till 10:00 or the close to see where the dust settles
2) If one has outperformed the market in a significant way, it is time to wait for next week.
3) Don't let Mr. Cramer effect your entry and exits points. Take his advice for what it is but it is ultimately your money and your research that decides the length of ones trade.
Update for Investments Aug 13-17
For the Rolling Index:
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
BLUD 34.40 (31.65) 29 shares $997.60
TOTAL LOSS -175.28
I acted impulsively on the open Friday and into Thursday's close instead of letting the indicators work. All losesses were on Friday.
Last Week we began the index at 10171.99 and ended at 9996.71
An decrease of 1.7%.
SP 500 INDEX closed last week at 1445.94 from 1453.64.
A 0.53% loss for the week.
UNDERPERFORMED INDEX BY 1.17%
SPECULATIVE (#4 underperformed for 2 wks should change course this week)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2)
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
LONG TERM (Were dated at open of July 30, mentioned July 29, will look at progress in 6 months time)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90
Friday, August 17, 2007
I have an idea how the Dow will close today but
Like the opening I should have waited for signals to either go long or short. And not rush into the market lacking patience. It is the only attribute that separates a profitable speculator to the myriad others who 'could have, should have, would have.'
One has to anticipate and not play catch up in this business and the only way I have found to work for me is patience.
So the Dow still looks to end strong but there will be signals that this will occur and at which time we will be long stocks. If not I don't think one be short over the weekend. A wait and see approach is at hand once again.
One has to anticipate and not play catch up in this business and the only way I have found to work for me is patience.
So the Dow still looks to end strong but there will be signals that this will occur and at which time we will be long stocks. If not I don't think one be short over the weekend. A wait and see approach is at hand once again.
Chaotic Week and Corrections
Speculative--we are out of AA, TMA options
We can't short ROB so will be looking for speculative plays.
Rolling Index was as follows:
M-short ETFC
T-short CRS, RGC, MME (no such stock), WU, FED, MMA
W-cover JDSU, short AINV, TOL covered spec AA, TMA
R-short LSB, MM covered MMA, CRS, AINV, ININ (an error we never placed this order), ETFC
F-at open, covered RGC, MME, WU, FED, LSB, MM, TOL (we got lit up at open so don't think Im going to do that again. Plus, my indicators said to go long but I just couldn't see myself buying)
We have no positions into the close, so far.
We can't short ROB so will be looking for speculative plays.
Rolling Index was as follows:
M-short ETFC
T-short CRS, RGC, MME (no such stock), WU, FED, MMA
W-cover JDSU, short AINV, TOL covered spec AA, TMA
R-short LSB, MM covered MMA, CRS, AINV, ININ (an error we never placed this order), ETFC
F-at open, covered RGC, MME, WU, FED, LSB, MM, TOL (we got lit up at open so don't think Im going to do that again. Plus, my indicators said to go long but I just couldn't see myself buying)
We have no positions into the close, so far.
The Russell2000
As can be seen, the Russell2000 NOT taking out its lows and outperforming the market was signaling something.
Well
I think it would be prudent to cover shorts.
Im interested to see how the Rolling Index performed.
Please remember that we shorted stocks off the radar screen on the most part to capture trend and not volatility. Volatility gives me a headache.
Now the question is this a +400 day?
Im interested to see how the Rolling Index performed.
Please remember that we shorted stocks off the radar screen on the most part to capture trend and not volatility. Volatility gives me a headache.
Now the question is this a +400 day?
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Saw this in March
So cover MMA, CRS, AINV, ININ, ETFC
Market may rally but if it doesnt we have other shorts that we can do.
BEAR MARKET with possibly BIG RALLIES!
Market may rally but if it doesnt we have other shorts that we can do.
BEAR MARKET with possibly BIG RALLIES!
The Russell2000 and Copper
Now the market big cap indexes are weaker and hitting lows greater than the small cap indexes which makes no sense to me since the larger companies will be healthier and, as shown, haven't progressed at all since 2000 if one does a ratio to small cap stocks. Is this a discrepency that will end well? Or due to lack of liquidity, the larger indexes are selling off first with small caps lagging but eventually picking up steam?
And you have to be short industrial metals, in particular, copper if this is truly a sell off where a slow down in the global economy is possibly imminent and the dollar and yen raging. So this is one bag of tools one needs to look at to see what type of market we are having. Additionally, how can copper stay strong while the stocks of the miner's weak, unless we have two different investors: 1) the lightly-margined ones 2) the over-leveraged kind.
Lets see
And you have to be short industrial metals, in particular, copper if this is truly a sell off where a slow down in the global economy is possibly imminent and the dollar and yen raging. So this is one bag of tools one needs to look at to see what type of market we are having. Additionally, how can copper stay strong while the stocks of the miner's weak, unless we have two different investors: 1) the lightly-margined ones 2) the over-leveraged kind.
Lets see
Arbitrage
Here is one Im looking at ...
TMA is 10.56
Pays 2.72 in dividend annually assume a 50% haircut.
1.36
SELL 2010 C TMA $10 options are trading at $5
If redeemed 4.44 profit + 1.36 + 1.36=7.16
which is 70% profit
Risk 10.56-5=5.56 which is $556
1.3:1 RATIO
WATCH THIS ONE!!!
TMA is 10.56
Pays 2.72 in dividend annually assume a 50% haircut.
1.36
SELL 2010 C TMA $10 options are trading at $5
If redeemed 4.44 profit + 1.36 + 1.36=7.16
which is 70% profit
Risk 10.56-5=5.56 which is $556
1.3:1 RATIO
WATCH THIS ONE!!!
SHORT THE RICH AND EAT THEIR PROFITS!
If commodity stocks in which the underlying companies are cash rich get hit to nauseating levels then why not the companies that cater to the ultra rich?
There is an etf just released for that purpose and is called ROB. short it short it short it.
Of course, if it does well then once again the fund managers get away with the loot leaving the common man (this time meaning government) with the bag.
My technical indicators don't work with an etf just released so this is based solely on whimsy. Kind of like what has kept the mortgage market up.
So this is in place of AA in my speculation category.
There is an etf just released for that purpose and is called ROB. short it short it short it.
Of course, if it does well then once again the fund managers get away with the loot leaving the common man (this time meaning government) with the bag.
My technical indicators don't work with an etf just released so this is based solely on whimsy. Kind of like what has kept the mortgage market up.
So this is in place of AA in my speculation category.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Speculative
I am out of AA options. TMA options are worthless since you can buy the stock so cheaply.
Orders
Cover JDSU
Short AINV
Short TOL, homebuilder that triggered a sell today.
We are short CRS, RGC, MME, WU, FED, MMA on Tues.
We are short ETFC on Monday.
So Short 9 stocks.
Short AINV
Short TOL, homebuilder that triggered a sell today.
We are short CRS, RGC, MME, WU, FED, MMA on Tues.
We are short ETFC on Monday.
So Short 9 stocks.
Have confidence in the Uranium MIning Industry
I am not aloof nor am I hiding under a rock concerning the big sell off in uranium.
Before I even mentioned it to anyone I encountered this sell off twice before.
This time it is different in the sense that the news concerning the nuclear industry is great which is I why I kept recommending it. If you decide to stick with it, you will have what they call a trial by baptism. Here is a classic market set up (thinking 1998) where the most reliable investment – mortgages – turns out to be a sham and sells off. While the most spurned and speculative market – nuclear – turns out to have legs and sells off. Both market pundits say look at the cash! But if you look at TMA, it has a funding problem and they have no junk. While Mega, FRG, and Pinetree have over 100mln in the bank-cash!
And did I fail to mention seasonality? The miners drill this time of year and announce their finds in late fall, winter. So until their spring/summer drilling results are out then there is no telling the price level people will place on these guys.
I hope this helps, but realize that now with this massive sell off the recovery will take awhile.
This morning looks ugly
There will probably be a dip then rally this morning but must stay short.
I would say today that I will be looking to trim my positions at close.
1) There is a potential of an additional 5-6% drop in the markets.
2) The Yen is working and not the Swiss.
3) My speculatives are weak in this environment and can get weaker hence speculatives, so am thinking of closing them out at close. Not panic driven but preservation of capital is on my mind. SO WE CAN SPECULATE LATER!
Uranium mining companies have had such a jarring run down that at this point it makes no sense to sell. Remember that 20% of these companies market values are cash. They can't get to the prices they were before the phenomenal run up because, if they did, they can close up shop and distribute the assets of the company.
I believe that a recession will be good for the nuclear industry actually. With the slowing down of global production, there will be less demand for coal powered plants as the nuclear fleet begins to be built which should make people comfortable with a 'nuclear' world. Additionally, nuclear power plants are worker intensive one needs in a slowing economy. But where are they going to get all the uranium from?
I would say today that I will be looking to trim my positions at close.
1) There is a potential of an additional 5-6% drop in the markets.
2) The Yen is working and not the Swiss.
3) My speculatives are weak in this environment and can get weaker hence speculatives, so am thinking of closing them out at close. Not panic driven but preservation of capital is on my mind. SO WE CAN SPECULATE LATER!
Uranium mining companies have had such a jarring run down that at this point it makes no sense to sell. Remember that 20% of these companies market values are cash. They can't get to the prices they were before the phenomenal run up because, if they did, they can close up shop and distribute the assets of the company.
I believe that a recession will be good for the nuclear industry actually. With the slowing down of global production, there will be less demand for coal powered plants as the nuclear fleet begins to be built which should make people comfortable with a 'nuclear' world. Additionally, nuclear power plants are worker intensive one needs in a slowing economy. But where are they going to get all the uranium from?
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Hedging
Markets go up and they go down. I'm sure several people have stocks they want to sell. There are two simple solutions for this dilemma:
1) eat the loss
2) hedge the stock by buying ETFs that short the market. Such as SDS which shorts the S&P500. OR RWM that shorts the RUSSELL 2000.
I realize I recommended uranium and have seen them drop subprime style but it is a long term hold on the secular uptrend in energy. Not a trading vehicle. And I still thought I was getting value with the companies, but in reality it just wasn't the case.
Shorting the market will not be on my list because I believe owning FXY, FXS plays on the condition why the market is going down...debt and no liquidity. Additionally, except for short term trading I don't believe it is prudent to take a short stance unless one has experience in handling the emotional roller coaster shorting entails. It is better to be out of the market and wait. I am long the dollar but I don't see any ETFs that can double your dollar position.
And I'm in GLD when the governments of the world will possibly print money to an extent that causes precious metal inflation.
IN A BEAR MARKET ONE WANTS TO PRESERVE CAPITAL. THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM BEAR MARKET BUT NEVERTHELESS IT IS REAL AND CAN GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, SO IT IS NEVER TO LATE TO PREPARE!!!
1) eat the loss
2) hedge the stock by buying ETFs that short the market. Such as SDS which shorts the S&P500. OR RWM that shorts the RUSSELL 2000.
I realize I recommended uranium and have seen them drop subprime style but it is a long term hold on the secular uptrend in energy. Not a trading vehicle. And I still thought I was getting value with the companies, but in reality it just wasn't the case.
Shorting the market will not be on my list because I believe owning FXY, FXS plays on the condition why the market is going down...debt and no liquidity. Additionally, except for short term trading I don't believe it is prudent to take a short stance unless one has experience in handling the emotional roller coaster shorting entails. It is better to be out of the market and wait. I am long the dollar but I don't see any ETFs that can double your dollar position.
And I'm in GLD when the governments of the world will possibly print money to an extent that causes precious metal inflation.
IN A BEAR MARKET ONE WANTS TO PRESERVE CAPITAL. THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM BEAR MARKET BUT NEVERTHELESS IT IS REAL AND CAN GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, SO IT IS NEVER TO LATE TO PREPARE!!!
6 stocks to short
A diversified short portfolio:
CRS-steel
MMA-mortgage
FED-thrift
RGC-leisure
WU-finance
ININ-tech
CRS-steel
MMA-mortgage
FED-thrift
RGC-leisure
WU-finance
ININ-tech
Mr. Bernanke
He is the man. One should respect that. One should also respect risk. Unfortunately it has been trodden upon as the critics have been saying since 1987 when Greenspan initiated his famous 'put.'
Due to the inherent risklessness in the market, it is not proper for FED to act tough even though WAS proper several years ago to be. The systemic (big word) is to great.
The reason is that the individual investor isn't even in the market but being ever wise he has put it into mutual funds and pension plans-people that wear suits all day and have degrees in finance.
Mutual funds are mutual funds so they invest in the stock market which is actually the only healthy thing in the market-relatively speaking. But it is the pension plans that I'm more worried about.
These pension plans, the multi billion ones, represent federal, state, and local employees as well as private employees. So as the common man is rooting for hedge fund explosions and rich people getting burned, they don't realize their savings which went to pensions then to fund of funds then to hedge funds and finally to subrime mortgages (that the common man took out--full circle don't you think?). Trickle down economics may not work with taxes but it sure works in the real world.
The wealthy will lose their jobs not their bank accounts. So it will once again fall on the common man, like with Enron, to face the burden and appear on Dateline or a Michael Moore documentary sad and disgruntled.
Respect the people at the top and never cheer for a downfall. It is not proper and every revolution as seen in our history books never turned out quite as people imagined them to be. And this is a revolution because when the dust settles our financial system may not be the same again and government control of the market may become systemic as only risklessness was.
Due to the inherent risklessness in the market, it is not proper for FED to act tough even though WAS proper several years ago to be. The systemic (big word) is to great.
The reason is that the individual investor isn't even in the market but being ever wise he has put it into mutual funds and pension plans-people that wear suits all day and have degrees in finance.
Mutual funds are mutual funds so they invest in the stock market which is actually the only healthy thing in the market-relatively speaking. But it is the pension plans that I'm more worried about.
These pension plans, the multi billion ones, represent federal, state, and local employees as well as private employees. So as the common man is rooting for hedge fund explosions and rich people getting burned, they don't realize their savings which went to pensions then to fund of funds then to hedge funds and finally to subrime mortgages (that the common man took out--full circle don't you think?). Trickle down economics may not work with taxes but it sure works in the real world.
The wealthy will lose their jobs not their bank accounts. So it will once again fall on the common man, like with Enron, to face the burden and appear on Dateline or a Michael Moore documentary sad and disgruntled.
Respect the people at the top and never cheer for a downfall. It is not proper and every revolution as seen in our history books never turned out quite as people imagined them to be. And this is a revolution because when the dust settles our financial system may not be the same again and government control of the market may become systemic as only risklessness was.
RosettaUpdate
ROSE had a conference call today. It appears that as a company that have a strong resource base that is scalable which should translate into strong revenue and income growth.
What I found interesting is that income was hindered by ad valorum taxes higher than the going rate by CA because they were underpaying previously.
By the end of September, one should see if the court throws out Calpers claim. According to management, the lawsuit is being pursued because Calpers has nothing to lose by proceeding.
And they are looking for a visible and well respected manager to take the helms as CEO.
And as mentioned natural gas is poised to rebound from here.
What I found interesting is that income was hindered by ad valorum taxes higher than the going rate by CA because they were underpaying previously.
By the end of September, one should see if the court throws out Calpers claim. According to management, the lawsuit is being pursued because Calpers has nothing to lose by proceeding.
And they are looking for a visible and well respected manager to take the helms as CEO.
And as mentioned natural gas is poised to rebound from here.
Uranium Subprime
There is a company called Mega Uranium worth about 800mln on the open market. Today they reported from yahoo news:
"As at June 30, 2007, Mega had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $105.9 million as compared to $41.3 million at the end of September 30, 2006, an increase of 155%. As at June 30, 2007, the Company had mineral properties and related expenditures of $351.4 million as compared to $56.8 million as at September 30, 2006. The increase is primarily due to Mega's acquisition of Redport Limited, Twenty Seven Capital Corp. and Monster Copper Corporation."
So 800-100=700mln left-400 for companies=300mln valued just on their properties in Australia which are tremendous. They have no debt and now have 4 (Nu Energy not reported) more companies not on the open market, tremendous resource base, and additional management.
And the market treats it like this a negative growth industry. No sense. Lets see if patience is rewarded.
"As at June 30, 2007, Mega had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $105.9 million as compared to $41.3 million at the end of September 30, 2006, an increase of 155%. As at June 30, 2007, the Company had mineral properties and related expenditures of $351.4 million as compared to $56.8 million as at September 30, 2006. The increase is primarily due to Mega's acquisition of Redport Limited, Twenty Seven Capital Corp. and Monster Copper Corporation."
So 800-100=700mln left-400 for companies=300mln valued just on their properties in Australia which are tremendous. They have no debt and now have 4 (Nu Energy not reported) more companies not on the open market, tremendous resource base, and additional management.
And the market treats it like this a negative growth industry. No sense. Lets see if patience is rewarded.
Interesting Fact and the Market Makes No Sense
So trade senseless in the literal meaning of the word. Dont trade with any of your senses but what the cold hard facts say.
Housing weakness is to the extreme and once again lumber is up!
So what is that telling us?
Last week the biggest winning sector was financials and the biggest losing sector was telecom.
But the reality is that financials are in the hole for billions of dollars that telecoms have in the bank and in orders. So that is a discrepancy that possibly will be reversed this week.
Also, in order to trade senseless, you need to capture the trend. And hold on until proven otherwise. That is how the big money is made and why there is no rush to trade. In bear markets, selloffs occur quickly which causes excitement to short at bottoms right before vicious moves up, so when it is clear that it is indeed a bear market one has time to get in on rally days because sell off days tend to be vicious. In bull markets, the move ups aren't usually as pronounced as bear markets so once it is clear the market is on the upswing you can scale in on good days. This is what IBD has discovered and recommend the paper to everyone.
Housing weakness is to the extreme and once again lumber is up!
So what is that telling us?
Last week the biggest winning sector was financials and the biggest losing sector was telecom.
But the reality is that financials are in the hole for billions of dollars that telecoms have in the bank and in orders. So that is a discrepancy that possibly will be reversed this week.
Also, in order to trade senseless, you need to capture the trend. And hold on until proven otherwise. That is how the big money is made and why there is no rush to trade. In bear markets, selloffs occur quickly which causes excitement to short at bottoms right before vicious moves up, so when it is clear that it is indeed a bear market one has time to get in on rally days because sell off days tend to be vicious. In bull markets, the move ups aren't usually as pronounced as bear markets so once it is clear the market is on the upswing you can scale in on good days. This is what IBD has discovered and recommend the paper to everyone.
BEST INVESTMENT FOR TURBULENT TIMES!!!
I have figured out the best way to make money. The old fashion way - earning it. And when you do , SAVE IT!
The market right now is for professionals though it seems enticing like sirens in the water after a 3 yr voyage where you haven't seen anything but Mr. Skips and his parrot.
I love following the market and speculating but the reality is that one should pick his shots carefully and be truthful with oneself.
I am personally upset that I couldn't wait to buy some of these uranium mining companies but alas hindsight is 20/20.
The market right now is for professionals though it seems enticing like sirens in the water after a 3 yr voyage where you haven't seen anything but Mr. Skips and his parrot.
I love following the market and speculating but the reality is that one should pick his shots carefully and be truthful with oneself.
I am personally upset that I couldn't wait to buy some of these uranium mining companies but alas hindsight is 20/20.
It Looks Like
A classic fade the open. The market should rally choppily into close. Tomorrow will probably be down with fear coming back into the market. Thursday everything should settle back. And Friday people will close out their positions for the weekend. That is the game plan. Lets see what happens.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Big News on Nuclear Power
1) Congress seen backing nuclear pact with India
2) SP starting index on all things nuclear
3) Toshiba sells part of its stake in Westinghouse to Kazakhstan's state uranium mining company in order to guarantee uranium with new nuclear plant. So this would mean that GE and its partners will actively seek mining alliances as well.
4) Nuclear ETF will be released soon
2) SP starting index on all things nuclear
3) Toshiba sells part of its stake in Westinghouse to Kazakhstan's state uranium mining company in order to guarantee uranium with new nuclear plant. So this would mean that GE and its partners will actively seek mining alliances as well.
4) Nuclear ETF will be released soon
Update for Investments Aug 6-10
For the Rolling Index:
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
REALIZED PROFIT OF 233.49
CURRENT POSITION
JDSU 14.63 (13.46) 68 shares closed at 14.54, -6.12
TOTAL PROFIT 227.37
Last Week we began the index at 9944.62 and ended at 10171.99
An increase of 2.2%.
SP 500 INDEX closed last week at 1453.64 from 1433.06.
A 1.4% gain for the week.
SPECULATIVE (#3 is doing well, I expect a favorable outcome by December)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long 1 AA (Alcoa option) Jan 17.50 C for 20.90
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
LONG TERM (Were dated at open of July 30, mentioned July 29, will look at progress in 6 months time)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
REALIZED PROFIT OF 233.49
JDSU 14.63 (13.46) 68 shares closed at 14.54, -6.12
TOTAL PROFIT 227.37
Last Week we began the index at 9944.62 and ended at 10171.99
An increase of 2.2%.
SP 500 INDEX closed last week at 1453.64 from 1433.06.
A 1.4% gain for the week.
SPECULATIVE (#3 is doing well, I expect a favorable outcome by December)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long 1 AA (Alcoa option) Jan 17.50 C for 20.90
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
LONG TERM (Were dated at open of July 30, mentioned July 29, will look at progress in 6 months time)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90
Market Hype?
This morning:
1) Goldman's ailing Hedge Fund has Eli Broad and Hank Greenberg invest money into it
2) Yen predicted to go down
3) Surprise retail sales
4) Blackstone reports record earnings
5) No bank failures this weekend
So someone is going to be buying this morning with all this good news. Lets see what happens in the afternoon. With an up day early, we have three possibilities: 1) DJIA goes up 230 pts 2) choppy markets throughout 3) sell off then rally into close
I DONT THINK WE WILL BE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY INTO THE CLOSE
Remember I keep saying that gold and oil need to stay up for the market to remain healthy. Oil is up and gold is off a little bit. Those two key indicator I think are better than interest rates presently to gauge liquidity.
1) Goldman's ailing Hedge Fund has Eli Broad and Hank Greenberg invest money into it
2) Yen predicted to go down
3) Surprise retail sales
4) Blackstone reports record earnings
5) No bank failures this weekend
So someone is going to be buying this morning with all this good news. Lets see what happens in the afternoon. With an up day early, we have three possibilities: 1) DJIA goes up 230 pts 2) choppy markets throughout 3) sell off then rally into close
I DONT THINK WE WILL BE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY INTO THE CLOSE
Remember I keep saying that gold and oil need to stay up for the market to remain healthy. Oil is up and gold is off a little bit. Those two key indicator I think are better than interest rates presently to gauge liquidity.
Healthy market?
The market is up this morning. It needs to stay up all day to show some semblance of strength. I don't think an up 180pts in the Dow will be healthy, but a long, steady grind up will show more demand than a quick move up.
Didn't post results this weekend, will post this afternoon.
Didn't post results this weekend, will post this afternoon.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Wildly Bullish and ORDERS
I am not predicting anything but it SMELLS to me that there will be a big move up this coming Monday. The Yen sold off into close and gold prices are starting to reawaken which to me says that liquidity is possibly back!
AND I BELIEVE THE ENERGY SELL OFF IS NIE. LOOK AT NATURAL GAS!!!!
Cover ALL shorts.
We, I believe, will only be in JDSU.
AND JUST FYI -- URANIUMS TODAY ACTED LIKE THEY WERE IN THE SAME BOAT AS THE SUBPRIME LENDERS: NFI, AHM, FMT, NEW.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SHORTS, I THINK TODAY IS WHAT YOU CALL EXHAUSTION SELLING. TODAY, CONTRARILY, WAS A BUY SIGNAL!!!!
HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND
WILL POST EVERYTHING SUNDAY!!!!
AND I BELIEVE THE ENERGY SELL OFF IS NIE. LOOK AT NATURAL GAS!!!!
Cover ALL shorts.
We, I believe, will only be in JDSU.
AND JUST FYI -- URANIUMS TODAY ACTED LIKE THEY WERE IN THE SAME BOAT AS THE SUBPRIME LENDERS: NFI, AHM, FMT, NEW.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SHORTS, I THINK TODAY IS WHAT YOU CALL EXHAUSTION SELLING. TODAY, CONTRARILY, WAS A BUY SIGNAL!!!!
HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND
WILL POST EVERYTHING SUNDAY!!!!
Japanese Yen
The ultimate play on the end to liquidity. I would say if the FED lowers rates then the YEN goes up because of a weaker dollar and that it will take time to have liquidity ramp up again. The risk is the low the Yen put in July. Additionally, there was a record high commercial interest in the yen which to me smacks of knowledge of the events playing out in the credit market. The commercials are now selling at a great profit there Yen positions. Very bullish.
2008 playbook
I started this blog initially to just cover the energy and commodities market but with the bearish overtone the past few months I don't think many people would have read my blog.
So I want to write why I'm convinced of a uranium mining bull market to an even greater extent then what we have already experienced.
My big expectation is that oil companies are going to be looking into the future and seeing the demand of uranium increase as nuclear power plants start to be built in earnest worldwide in the course of a few years. Of course, this has already happened but for oil companies to begin an earnest commitment they need to be more convinced then a few wide eyed speculators.
Many of these uranium miners have great claims, are actively defining their resources, geographically diversified, and cash rich. These oil companies will start to pick them off one by one unknown to the public who are wary of these shares since the fabulous run up and down of the value of these companies. Remember that oil companies were the largest owners of uranium claims in the seventies.
Bull markets have three legs up and two legs down which are corrections. That is the Dow Theory which I am a proponent of.
The first wave of the uranium market was in 1996. When uranium hit $14lb then sold off with USEC, a former government agency, dumping uranium on the open market (sound familiar). Several mining execs start to speculate and grab cheap land claims.
The second wave was catching the secular bull market in energy starting in late 2002. The last hurrah was in March 2007. Savvy investors start the chain rolling and hedge funds end it as subprime explodes and the government sells uranium on open market sending the price of uranium down $30 from speculative highs.
The third wave will be the titans of industry buying these companies, at first, cheaply but the stampede will run the value of these companies to obscene prices only multi-billion dollar companies can do. The end will be Cameco merging with XOM. (AOL and Time Warner)
I have no crystal ball and don't even want one. But I need a game plan to get me through this ugliness and this is the one I have. Hope it helps.
So I want to write why I'm convinced of a uranium mining bull market to an even greater extent then what we have already experienced.
My big expectation is that oil companies are going to be looking into the future and seeing the demand of uranium increase as nuclear power plants start to be built in earnest worldwide in the course of a few years. Of course, this has already happened but for oil companies to begin an earnest commitment they need to be more convinced then a few wide eyed speculators.
Many of these uranium miners have great claims, are actively defining their resources, geographically diversified, and cash rich. These oil companies will start to pick them off one by one unknown to the public who are wary of these shares since the fabulous run up and down of the value of these companies. Remember that oil companies were the largest owners of uranium claims in the seventies.
Bull markets have three legs up and two legs down which are corrections. That is the Dow Theory which I am a proponent of.
The first wave of the uranium market was in 1996. When uranium hit $14lb then sold off with USEC, a former government agency, dumping uranium on the open market (sound familiar). Several mining execs start to speculate and grab cheap land claims.
The second wave was catching the secular bull market in energy starting in late 2002. The last hurrah was in March 2007. Savvy investors start the chain rolling and hedge funds end it as subprime explodes and the government sells uranium on open market sending the price of uranium down $30 from speculative highs.
The third wave will be the titans of industry buying these companies, at first, cheaply but the stampede will run the value of these companies to obscene prices only multi-billion dollar companies can do. The end will be Cameco merging with XOM. (AOL and Time Warner)
I have no crystal ball and don't even want one. But I need a game plan to get me through this ugliness and this is the one I have. Hope it helps.
Showing Up to Work
The market is not looking healthy and fear is persuasive. This is a trading environment now and it is unclear where the market will head. But ask yourself is this SELLOFF warranted. It has been for 2-3 years due to illogical lending practices that a common man took, but knew it made no sense. Though I don't think it is the Fed's God given right to start a recession because we live in a democracry where things should play out on their own: they should be compelled to lower rates.
Remember this selloff will have signs of ending when gold and oil start to move up. Those are great indicators for the liquidity in the market.
Early morning will have a sell off, but HOW WILL THE CLOSE look? DJIA 13,499 or DJIA 12000? I'm leaning towards a downday, but not straight down. Personally, I think a big down 260 pnt will be healthy since it will be an exhaustion sell to start over again on Monday.
Remember this selloff will have signs of ending when gold and oil start to move up. Those are great indicators for the liquidity in the market.
Early morning will have a sell off, but HOW WILL THE CLOSE look? DJIA 13,499 or DJIA 12000? I'm leaning towards a downday, but not straight down. Personally, I think a big down 260 pnt will be healthy since it will be an exhaustion sell to start over again on Monday.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Nonsensical Markets
Markets make no sense and work on their own internal logic. Remember that when you place a trade based on logic.
Here I am short lumber, right? Because there is a housing downturn. And then sure enough Bush bans Canadian imports of the stuff.
When will the free market reign supreme?
Plus, I mean here the homebuilders are all bleeding money and the administration said they aren't going to bail them out, but I mean are they going to exacerbate it with high lumber prices?
While energy companies are getting crushed with great earnings, cash in the bank, and demand demand demand for their products for the far out future. Makes no sense.
But in a fire sale EVERYTHING MUST GO!!!!
Here I am short lumber, right? Because there is a housing downturn. And then sure enough Bush bans Canadian imports of the stuff.
When will the free market reign supreme?
Plus, I mean here the homebuilders are all bleeding money and the administration said they aren't going to bail them out, but I mean are they going to exacerbate it with high lumber prices?
While energy companies are getting crushed with great earnings, cash in the bank, and demand demand demand for their products for the far out future. Makes no sense.
But in a fire sale EVERYTHING MUST GO!!!!
Short STN 83.22
Market call is that they will not be bought out due to real estate conditions.
This is not a Macau play but a regionl, working man Nevada play.
Barrons in 2006 ripped on this stock, like they did recently with Blackstone.
This is not a Macau play but a regionl, working man Nevada play.
Barrons in 2006 ripped on this stock, like they did recently with Blackstone.
Uganda Uranium
Uranium Hunter is located in Uganda and is valued at 60mln dollars while IBI is only 10mln.
Go to there website to compare but Im going to stick with the one featured in Northern Miner.
Or buy both.
www.ibinvest.com
http://www.uraniumhuntercorp.com/
The news on the company is here http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070802/0285540.html
The HISTORIC bull market continues...
Go to there website to compare but Im going to stick with the one featured in Northern Miner.
Or buy both.
www.ibinvest.com
http://www.uraniumhuntercorp.com/
The news on the company is here http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070802/0285540.html
The HISTORIC bull market continues...
Rosetta Resources
This is speculative at its best.
I mentioned options on this stocks not expecting such a correction in prices. But presently just buying this company outright is great speculation on the price of natural gas.
You're getting a deal because of confusion in the bankruptcy courts, CEO resigning abruptly, and market volatility. All three have nothing to do with the great assets and low debt it has.
This is the anti-Enron where everything was rosy but wasn't. In this business you pick stocks for the long run with warts and all and this has it.
This stock you can't place a stop but must ride it out.
I mentioned options on this stocks not expecting such a correction in prices. But presently just buying this company outright is great speculation on the price of natural gas.
You're getting a deal because of confusion in the bankruptcy courts, CEO resigning abruptly, and market volatility. All three have nothing to do with the great assets and low debt it has.
This is the anti-Enron where everything was rosy but wasn't. In this business you pick stocks for the long run with warts and all and this has it.
This stock you can't place a stop but must ride it out.
Here is entry/exits so far for week. I have started to put it in excel which added to delay.
| STOCK | LONG OR SHORT | ENTRY | STOP | SHARES | PRICE | POSITION .CLOSED | P&L | |||
| hcsg | l | 31.37 | 28.8604 | 32 | 1003.84 | 33.8 | 67.76 | |||
| sap | l | 55.03 | 50.6276 | 18 | 990.54 | 54.48 | -19.9 | |||
| hgt | s | 23.7 | 25.596 | 42 | 995.4 | |||||
| ssp | s | 43.84 | 47.3472 | 23 | 1008.32 | 40.43 | 68.43 | |||
| asf | s | 33.76 | 36.4608 | 30 | 1012.8 | 35.94 | -75.4 | |||
| nnds | s | 44.15 | 47.682 | 23 | 1015.45 | 41.71 | 46.12 | |||
| jtx | s | 27.64 | 29.8512 | 36 | 995.04 | 28 | -46 | |||
| asca | s | 28.7 | 30.996 | 35 | 1004.5 | 26.01 | 84.15 | |||
| disca | l | 24.38 | 22.4296 | 41 | 999.58 | 26.14 | 62.16 | |||
| sap | l | 54.76 | 50.3792 | 18 | 985.68 | 55.09 | -4.06 | |||
| rgc | s | 21.07 | 22.7556 | 47 | 990.29 | |||||
| agn | l | 61.12 | 56.2304 | 16 | 977.92 | 64.84 | 49.52 | |||
| dlb | l | 37.62 | 34.6104 | 27 | 1015.74 | 37.97 | -0.55 | |||
| pfbc | s | 37.89 | 40.9212 | 26 | 985.14 | |||||
| inin | s | 18.66 | 20.1528 | 54 | 1007.64 | |||||
| jdsu | l | 14.63 | 13.4596 | 68 | 994.84 |
Nuclear India
Please go to
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer
=conews&tkr=GE:US&sid=aqWje8X9SnRo
This shows how the big boys are gunnin for 14bln in orders in India. Not in 5 yrs, but now.
These type of deals are occurring all over the world.
The nuclear industry is in the beginning of its renaissance.
Today, look at USU . I love buy out rumors because the stock pops then proceeds to sell off in kind. This is the only enricher in the states and doesn't have the healthiest balance sheet but I think this one will be a winner down the road. Others are building enrichment plants like USU but this one already has the only working unit in the States. They will have to supply India as their market starts to grow. I'm sure with the US - India agreement, USU will have a part in it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer
=conews&tkr=GE:US&sid=aqWje8X9SnRo
This shows how the big boys are gunnin for 14bln in orders in India. Not in 5 yrs, but now.
These type of deals are occurring all over the world.
The nuclear industry is in the beginning of its renaissance.
Today, look at USU . I love buy out rumors because the stock pops then proceeds to sell off in kind. This is the only enricher in the states and doesn't have the healthiest balance sheet but I think this one will be a winner down the road. Others are building enrichment plants like USU but this one already has the only working unit in the States. They will have to supply India as their market starts to grow. I'm sure with the US - India agreement, USU will have a part in it.
Fisherman's Market
You go to the fisherman's market to buy fish. That market smells. There are no allusions of the place. You are looking for fresh fish while some merchants will sell you day old fish, but of course dress it up to make it look fresh or try to preserve it in ice. But what if the ice melts? Which I think is happening in Europe today.
Things are starting to smell again. Is this a 3 leg down, in ElliottWave parlance?
If so the market must give back yesterday's gains. Please read this Bloomberg article. Big drops in Europe. Might be good for the dollar though compared to the Euro.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601087&sid=a3BgW.MHBVfE&refer=home
Things are starting to smell again. Is this a 3 leg down, in ElliottWave parlance?
If so the market must give back yesterday's gains. Please read this Bloomberg article. Big drops in Europe. Might be good for the dollar though compared to the Euro.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601087&sid=a3BgW.MHBVfE&refer=home
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
close
sap
disca
we are having some great paper profits but dont want to be carried away.
This is a trader's market and not time to stick out a position.
We're making great percentage winners.
disca
we are having some great paper profits but dont want to be carried away.
This is a trader's market and not time to stick out a position.
We're making great percentage winners.
Buy JDSU
The market is in correction mode so want to have flexibility if there is a sell off or big upside movements so JDSU will play the strength in CSCO quarter.
Russell 2000 up BIG today and Yen DOWN big today. Traders are saying business as usual. We will see. Remember how oil went up then down $5 in very quick order.
But look at the oil sector today very strong.
Russell 2000 up BIG today and Yen DOWN big today. Traders are saying business as usual. We will see. Remember how oil went up then down $5 in very quick order.
But look at the oil sector today very strong.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Buy DISCA and Short RGC and Rebuy SAP
Will post entries prices tomorrow.
Market is crazy.
I reiterate no point to buy or sell unless you are a trader or have, basically, a conviction bordering on the religious side.
Market is crazy.
I reiterate no point to buy or sell unless you are a trader or have, basically, a conviction bordering on the religious side.
Uranium ETF, will it be a replay of gold and silver etfs???
Please go to http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070806/REG/70806035/1025/
Please note that before gold and silver's etf were released the underlying commodity had a beautiful move up.
Will it happen with the uranium mining companies???
URRE is a part of the Russell2000 so is weak because of index trading as well as weakness in the energy patch.
URZ was featured on street.com tv yesterday.
USU might be bought out
So these are becoming more in the public eye.
Please note that before gold and silver's etf were released the underlying commodity had a beautiful move up.
Will it happen with the uranium mining companies???
URRE is a part of the Russell2000 so is weak because of index trading as well as weakness in the energy patch.
URZ was featured on street.com tv yesterday.
USU might be bought out
So these are becoming more in the public eye.
Pride comes before the fall
I was going to save this essay for Sunday but a few of my friends had called and wanted some answers on the volatile market we have had recently.
When markets sell off it is a common fact that they rally as well. It is not the time to play games and try to buy stock in the hopes of picking a point or two, figuring it will pay for losses in the other stocks one owns. If you are down in your stock and not feeling comfortable, sell. Even if it's painful, because stocks can go up or down farther then one expects. Sometimes it is predictable and sometime it's surprising. That is why before one buys, he must know his expectations and the time frame he is looking at and not stray from what got you into the stocks in the first place.
If one invests more actively, he can have a set stop of 8% and never look back. This is the Investors Business Daily outlook of things. And find it the best solution for money management in a the buying and selling of stocks game.
Warren Buffet has the saying , "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." The market OVERALL for the past 4 months worked on greed. You have to realize that the companies are making the money while you, the investor, are holding the companies for appreciation which they have done in spades the past 4 years without a significant selloff. And one has to remember that if a stock has gone up 20% that is better than putting it in the bank and maybe one might want to lighten up if those gains were immediate. For example, if the company's market value is 1 billion dollars then the value of the company is now 1.2 bln so the company has to grow earnings to make that 20% worthwhile. It's tough making a million dollars let alone 200 million of them. Fear is pervading the market and the easy gains have been lifted from the majority of stocks. What is one to do?
Reassess each and every one of his investments and see if the reasons are still valid. Do you need the money? Can it be better placed somewhere else? If that is the answer then stick with it and do not have any regrets about selling. Never look back! Go for a walk and enjoy the day because each day is precious and it is not worth being stressed over something philosophic as 'will it go up or will it go down.' Let Newton worry about that. You did your job and made the right decision just sometimes it takes awhile for the market to come around.
For a history lesson. Look at 1998 when the Nasdaq tanked. It was a buy of a lifetime if you sold in 2000.
When markets sell off it is a common fact that they rally as well. It is not the time to play games and try to buy stock in the hopes of picking a point or two, figuring it will pay for losses in the other stocks one owns. If you are down in your stock and not feeling comfortable, sell. Even if it's painful, because stocks can go up or down farther then one expects. Sometimes it is predictable and sometime it's surprising. That is why before one buys, he must know his expectations and the time frame he is looking at and not stray from what got you into the stocks in the first place.
If one invests more actively, he can have a set stop of 8% and never look back. This is the Investors Business Daily outlook of things. And find it the best solution for money management in a the buying and selling of stocks game.
Warren Buffet has the saying , "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." The market OVERALL for the past 4 months worked on greed. You have to realize that the companies are making the money while you, the investor, are holding the companies for appreciation which they have done in spades the past 4 years without a significant selloff. And one has to remember that if a stock has gone up 20% that is better than putting it in the bank and maybe one might want to lighten up if those gains were immediate. For example, if the company's market value is 1 billion dollars then the value of the company is now 1.2 bln so the company has to grow earnings to make that 20% worthwhile. It's tough making a million dollars let alone 200 million of them. Fear is pervading the market and the easy gains have been lifted from the majority of stocks. What is one to do?
Reassess each and every one of his investments and see if the reasons are still valid. Do you need the money? Can it be better placed somewhere else? If that is the answer then stick with it and do not have any regrets about selling. Never look back! Go for a walk and enjoy the day because each day is precious and it is not worth being stressed over something philosophic as 'will it go up or will it go down.' Let Newton worry about that. You did your job and made the right decision just sometimes it takes awhile for the market to come around.
For a history lesson. Look at 1998 when the Nasdaq tanked. It was a buy of a lifetime if you sold in 2000.
Monday, August 6, 2007
Buy SAP 55.03 and cover
Speculative that I mentioned last week:
Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
Buy HCSG 31.07
Short HGT 23.62 (for a day or two)
Cover all shorts except for mgg, mlnx
with market up big today can spill over into other areas.
Just not into energy.
Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
Buy HCSG 31.07
Short HGT 23.62 (for a day or two)
Cover all shorts except for mgg, mlnx
with market up big today can spill over into other areas.
Just not into energy.
JTX downgraded, but the stock is up, what to do?
I say this is the classic short on the rumor, buy on the news.
Thinking of covering all shorts today. Not sure. Lets see at 3:30.
Look at ASF completely gave back its post earnings gains. Not very good action to say the least.
Thinking of covering all shorts today. Not sure. Lets see at 3:30.
Look at ASF completely gave back its post earnings gains. Not very good action to say the least.
Energy Getting hammered
If there is an economic slowdown there will be less demand for that black gooey stuff called oil. Or that is what the market is telling us. Unfortunately, these companies are cash rich. Cash is king. So lets see where these companies go, but they should be the first to rally.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Update on Investments
For the Rolling Index:
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
Covered
1) EEFT 28.03 (30.27), 15.45 shares, 25.41, +40.79
2) WBMD 46.43 (42.72) 22 shares, 45.79, -14.08
3) UA 55.37 (50.94) 19 shares, 61.41, +114.76
4) NVT 55.49 (51.05) 19 shares, 54.13, -25.84
5) SII 64.71 (59.30), 15.45shares, 58.71, -92.70
6) BEC 73.87 (67.96), 14shares, 70.82, -42.70
TOTAL REALIZED LOSS 19.77 + 60 COMMISSION= 79.77
Current Positions
Long
1) Buy DLB 37.62 (34.61)- 27shares=1015.74, closed at 36.97, -17.55
2) Buy AGN 61.12 (56.23) - 17shares=1039.04, closed at 63.67,+41.65
TOTAL UNREALIZED PROFIT FOR WEEK 24.10
Short
3)
4) SSP 43.84 (47.34), 22.8 shares=1000, closed at 40.32, 80.26
5) ASF 33.76 (36.46), 30 shares=1012.80, closed at 36.43, -80.1
6) NNDS 44.15 (47.68), 23 shares=1016, closed at 43.26, 20.47
7) JTX 27.64 (29.85), 37 shares=1023, closed at 27.66, -0.74
8) ASCA 28.70 (31.00)-35shares-1004.50, closed at 26.17, 88.55
9) MGG 29.92 (32.32) - 34shares=1017.28, closed at 29.54, 12.92
10) MLNX 18.85 (20.38) - 55 shares=999.05, closed at 19.05, -11
TOTAL UNREALIZED PROFIT FOR WEEK 110.36
UNREALIZED GAINS OF 134.46 - REALIZED LOSS OF 79.77 = +54.69
Last Week we began the index at 10,000. It ended at 9889.93. This week it is at 9944.62.
An increase of 0.6%.
SP 500 INDEX closed last week at 1458.59 and this week at 1433.06.
A 1.8% loss for the week.
SPECULATIVE
1)
2) Long 1 AA (Alcoa option) Jan 17.50 C for 20.90
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
LONG TERM (Were dated at open of July 30, mentioned July 29, will look at progress in 6 months time)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
Covered
1) EEFT 28.03 (30.27), 15.45 shares, 25.41, +40.79
2) WBMD 46.43 (42.72) 22 shares, 45.79, -14.08
3) UA 55.37 (50.94) 19 shares, 61.41, +114.76
4) NVT 55.49 (51.05) 19 shares, 54.13, -25.84
5) SII 64.71 (59.30), 15.45shares, 58.71, -92.70
6) BEC 73.87 (67.96), 14shares, 70.82, -42.70
TOTAL REALIZED LOSS 19.77 + 60 COMMISSION= 79.77
Current Positions
Long
1) Buy DLB 37.62 (34.61)- 27shares=1015.74, closed at 36.97, -17.55
2) Buy AGN 61.12 (56.23) - 17shares=1039.04, closed at 63.67,+41.65
TOTAL UNREALIZED PROFIT FOR WEEK 24.10
Short
3)
4) SSP 43.84 (47.34), 22.8 shares=1000, closed at 40.32, 80.26
5) ASF 33.76 (36.46), 30 shares=1012.80, closed at 36.43, -80.1
6) NNDS 44.15 (47.68), 23 shares=1016, closed at 43.26, 20.47
7) JTX 27.64 (29.85), 37 shares=1023, closed at 27.66, -0.74
8) ASCA 28.70 (31.00)-35shares-1004.50, closed at 26.17, 88.55
9) MGG 29.92 (32.32) - 34shares=1017.28, closed at 29.54, 12.92
10) MLNX 18.85 (20.38) - 55 shares=999.05, closed at 19.05, -11
TOTAL UNREALIZED PROFIT FOR WEEK 110.36
UNREALIZED GAINS OF 134.46 - REALIZED LOSS OF 79.77 = +54.69
Last Week we began the index at 10,000. It ended at 9889.93. This week it is at 9944.62.
An increase of 0.6%.
SP 500 INDEX closed last week at 1458.59 and this week at 1433.06.
A 1.8% loss for the week.
SPECULATIVE
1)
2) Long 1 AA (Alcoa option) Jan 17.50 C for 20.90
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
LONG TERM (Were dated at open of July 30, mentioned July 29, will look at progress in 6 months time)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90
Friday, August 3, 2007
State of Fear
I just finished the book State of Fear by Michael Crichton which I think is a must read for anyone, anywhere in the world. He uses the threat of eco terrorists to enlighten us on the global warming debate and remind us of how civilization has advanced. But how easily fear is used to persuade the population into making unnecessary and sometime costly changes.
No one is going to make a movie on eco terrorists; especially since it rebukes, no scolds, the problems raised in "Inconvenient Truth." That documentary was given a standing ovation at the Oscars, while this book questions our good natured intentions.
Crichton, in his notes, mentions that old politicians are wise (They have learned the wisdom of the brotherhood of man) and old scientists are behind their times (they have systems and methods that aren't updated to fit the time).
The comment triggered my thoughts of the market: is the market emotionally driven or mathematically inclined? If it's emotion based then history will repeat since our DNA hasn't changed for 10,000 years. And then one would conclude that stocks have hope and fear attached which would lend to extreme valuations. If mathematically based, then nothing serious should happen: all risks are considered and in a large collective basket (global) nothing significant should effect the market.
Jim Cramer speculated that though companies balance sheets are healthy and buy large shares of their stock back, the extreme pessimism of the media (it is receiving high ratings on the subprime mess and current market drop) could actually take this market to negative for the year. Of course, Robert Prechter has been shouting about the negative mood inherent in our society currently. Joe Granville was gravely insistent not to be caught up in Wall Street's latest excitement.
Though not personalities, the likes of the billion dollar home building industry, subprime lenders and their multi billion dollar broker backers (LEH, BSC, MER) claimed from their models that risk has been taken out of the equation. And the school teachers, Moodys and SP, gave them As.
I, personally, always remain skeptical of too-smart kids in the room, but as is is human nature I am still in awe of their ability to get through things so smoothly.
Where does the truth lie? And how can one profit? In these time, the investor who is slow to act and sees that his market conviction is correct will profit.
Hedging the universal panacea where you are long and short means that you have two positions. You now have to do research on TWO companies in order to make one profit! If you look closely at each investment, over time that will be a natural hedge against surprises. Unlike, the blind mathematically driven investment products that helped fuel speculative excess in the homebuilding and stock market.
No one is going to make a movie on eco terrorists; especially since it rebukes, no scolds, the problems raised in "Inconvenient Truth." That documentary was given a standing ovation at the Oscars, while this book questions our good natured intentions.
Crichton, in his notes, mentions that old politicians are wise (They have learned the wisdom of the brotherhood of man) and old scientists are behind their times (they have systems and methods that aren't updated to fit the time).
The comment triggered my thoughts of the market: is the market emotionally driven or mathematically inclined? If it's emotion based then history will repeat since our DNA hasn't changed for 10,000 years. And then one would conclude that stocks have hope and fear attached which would lend to extreme valuations. If mathematically based, then nothing serious should happen: all risks are considered and in a large collective basket (global) nothing significant should effect the market.
Jim Cramer speculated that though companies balance sheets are healthy and buy large shares of their stock back, the extreme pessimism of the media (it is receiving high ratings on the subprime mess and current market drop) could actually take this market to negative for the year. Of course, Robert Prechter has been shouting about the negative mood inherent in our society currently. Joe Granville was gravely insistent not to be caught up in Wall Street's latest excitement.
Though not personalities, the likes of the billion dollar home building industry, subprime lenders and their multi billion dollar broker backers (LEH, BSC, MER) claimed from their models that risk has been taken out of the equation. And the school teachers, Moodys and SP, gave them As.
I, personally, always remain skeptical of too-smart kids in the room, but as is is human nature I am still in awe of their ability to get through things so smoothly.
Where does the truth lie? And how can one profit? In these time, the investor who is slow to act and sees that his market conviction is correct will profit.
Hedging the universal panacea where you are long and short means that you have two positions. You now have to do research on TWO companies in order to make one profit! If you look closely at each investment, over time that will be a natural hedge against surprises. Unlike, the blind mathematically driven investment products that helped fuel speculative excess in the homebuilding and stock market.
How does one short down here?
How does one short down here and position for a rebound?
I think the best bet is pair trading. Pair trading is betting on the relative value of one item with another. Like long Nasdaq and short Russell 2000
You can see that the Nasdaq hasn't rallied in comparison with the Russell2000.
So in a pair bet, one would be long the Nasdaq and short the Russell with the working idea that growth stocks with plenty of cash will outperform the small cap domestic companies as represented in the Russell.
The low for this ratio was 2006 and has plenty of room on the upside as shown by the chart.
I think the best bet is pair trading. Pair trading is betting on the relative value of one item with another. Like long Nasdaq and short Russell 2000
You can see that the Nasdaq hasn't rallied in comparison with the Russell2000.
So in a pair bet, one would be long the Nasdaq and short the Russell with the working idea that growth stocks with plenty of cash will outperform the small cap domestic companies as represented in the Russell.
The low for this ratio was 2006 and has plenty of room on the upside as shown by the chart.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Update on speculative play AA
Did you know AA market cap is less than Alcan's 33.3bln to 41.58bln.
And AA is the larger company and a member of the DJIA.
Also that the 2009 (1 year from now) 17.50 call option is trading at 20.90.
So to break even AA needs to be 38.40. Today it is at 37.74 so it needs to move 0.66 to break even, a 1.7% move. That means someone is willing to sell you a global industrial powerhouse for just 1.7% for the entire year of 2008 and the volatile 2007 isn't even over yet.
There are two notable risks:
1) NOT LIQUID AT ALL, SO YOU MUST STICK IT OUT
2) Industrial contraction and AA isn't bought out. But this isn't Tribune were talking about but a cash generating machine.
BUY 2009 CALL OPTIONS 17.50 FOR APPRX 20.90=2090 DOLLARS. YOU ONLY PUT UP 55% OF PRICE.
And AA is the larger company and a member of the DJIA.
Also that the 2009 (1 year from now) 17.50 call option is trading at 20.90.
So to break even AA needs to be 38.40. Today it is at 37.74 so it needs to move 0.66 to break even, a 1.7% move. That means someone is willing to sell you a global industrial powerhouse for just 1.7% for the entire year of 2008 and the volatile 2007 isn't even over yet.
There are two notable risks:
1) NOT LIQUID AT ALL, SO YOU MUST STICK IT OUT
2) Industrial contraction and AA isn't bought out. But this isn't Tribune were talking about but a cash generating machine.
BUY 2009 CALL OPTIONS 17.50 FOR APPRX 20.90=2090 DOLLARS. YOU ONLY PUT UP 55% OF PRICE.
Buy and Sell
Hemming and Hawing couldn't move this market today.
Love to see stocks work immediately after pulling the trigger, who doesn't? But please beware, I know it all to well, I don't have a crystal ball. I am playing percentages where we are the house.
First, sell SII, it's a dog. Unfortunately, we didn't stick with NVT long enough, but that is what I expected with SII. But you can't look back.
Buy DLB 37.62 (34.61)- 27shares=1015.74. I shorted this stock earlier when there was bad news on it and got stopped. Someone really wants this stock. So it is a buy.
Short ASCA 28.70 (31.00)-35shares-1004.50. I hate gambling. I hate casino, unless of course Im the house. Had a runup immediately sold off. BEARISH!
Love to see stocks work immediately after pulling the trigger, who doesn't? But please beware, I know it all to well, I don't have a crystal ball. I am playing percentages where we are the house.
First, sell SII, it's a dog. Unfortunately, we didn't stick with NVT long enough, but that is what I expected with SII. But you can't look back.
Buy DLB 37.62 (34.61)- 27shares=1015.74. I shorted this stock earlier when there was bad news on it and got stopped. Someone really wants this stock. So it is a buy.
Short ASCA 28.70 (31.00)-35shares-1004.50. I hate gambling. I hate casino, unless of course Im the house. Had a runup immediately sold off. BEARISH!
Glencore vs. Google
First, I bet you don't know who or what Glencore is, but they generate revenue and income comparable to the likes of Google and it is not a tech company and it is private. But I guess not as private since the front page article on the WSJ. They are the largest commodities traders on the globe. Their specialty is in dealing in unhospitable climes and acquiring their commodities at a fair price. They have recently expanded by being large shareholders of publicly traded companies such as XSTRATA (nickel and coal) and CENX (aluminum).
Google and Glencore's public perception is completed misaligned with fact. "Do know evil" is Google's mantra, yet they want to monitor everyone's viewing habits that may get into the government's hands. Glencore is known as "doing evil" with rogue regimes, but I think people (more likely jealous) suspect something illicit in making such outsized profits in a business so few know-and do people know tech that well either?. It is a demanding 24/7 environment in harsh climes; unlike sunny CA. Google's employees have all been amply rewarded mostly through stock options grants which not only dilutes the shares but is being paid for by the public. In contrast, Glencore pays bonuses through income received what in the old days was considered "working for it." Additionally, many of the employees are shareholders of the company where the company buys out the employees stake when they leave-again from the company's treasury.
But Google and Glencore are similar in one respect: they know their business! Google went public seeing the future of web search. And they have been printing money ever since going public. Now Glencore is going "public" by issuing billions in debt, especially in a precarious time for debt, to buy as many commodity related industries possible before, according to them, it's too late; especially with the public perception that commodities are played out. For me, I don't like to go against people who put their money where their mouth is and margin that stake by borrowing large amounts of money, and even allowing the WSJ and Bloomberg to have articles written on them. They are borrowing money at 6% (their bonds are junk rated) and expect to get returns in excess of 10%-not a bad deal and what if commodities ramp again? It's called the sweet spot. In conclusion, Long commodities especially ones where India and China lack.
AA seems really cheap in light of the aluminum consolidation. I am looking to speculate on this one. But with option LEAPS.
If Xstrata couldn't buy Alcan, why not buy the better one, Alcoa? The company that started the aluminum business.
A side note:
And what about the bondholders, they should be buying what Glencore is buying, commodities and industries that deal in them. But if they are satisfied with 6% to help payoff their other junk bond rated debt so be it. The irony is that ALT-A mortgages as well as some subprime were rated AAA by the ratings agencies, yet the entire financial structure was built on a deck of cards. While Glencore deals in commodities not debt. They get paid and have a history of making money in even the harsh commodity climate of 2000-2002. The irony.
Google and Glencore's public perception is completed misaligned with fact. "Do know evil" is Google's mantra, yet they want to monitor everyone's viewing habits that may get into the government's hands. Glencore is known as "doing evil" with rogue regimes, but I think people (more likely jealous) suspect something illicit in making such outsized profits in a business so few know-and do people know tech that well either?. It is a demanding 24/7 environment in harsh climes; unlike sunny CA. Google's employees have all been amply rewarded mostly through stock options grants which not only dilutes the shares but is being paid for by the public. In contrast, Glencore pays bonuses through income received what in the old days was considered "working for it." Additionally, many of the employees are shareholders of the company where the company buys out the employees stake when they leave-again from the company's treasury.
But Google and Glencore are similar in one respect: they know their business! Google went public seeing the future of web search. And they have been printing money ever since going public. Now Glencore is going "public" by issuing billions in debt, especially in a precarious time for debt, to buy as many commodity related industries possible before, according to them, it's too late; especially with the public perception that commodities are played out. For me, I don't like to go against people who put their money where their mouth is and margin that stake by borrowing large amounts of money, and even allowing the WSJ and Bloomberg to have articles written on them. They are borrowing money at 6% (their bonds are junk rated) and expect to get returns in excess of 10%-not a bad deal and what if commodities ramp again? It's called the sweet spot. In conclusion, Long commodities especially ones where India and China lack.
AA seems really cheap in light of the aluminum consolidation. I am looking to speculate on this one. But with option LEAPS.
If Xstrata couldn't buy Alcan, why not buy the better one, Alcoa? The company that started the aluminum business.
A side note:
And what about the bondholders, they should be buying what Glencore is buying, commodities and industries that deal in them. But if they are satisfied with 6% to help payoff their other junk bond rated debt so be it. The irony is that ALT-A mortgages as well as some subprime were rated AAA by the ratings agencies, yet the entire financial structure was built on a deck of cards. While Glencore deals in commodities not debt. They get paid and have a history of making money in even the harsh commodity climate of 2000-2002. The irony.
Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto showed profit less than expected. This is real cash. And has to be regarded as a premium to companies where cash is a relative experience.
It also shows why commodities are at all time highs: it is tough to produce commodities while demand is continuous.
As for the market, it should be strong this morning but it will be telling later in the day. It is not good to see oil and gold be weak because then there is a fear of deflation. Then again, short term, it might be since "the big boys" may get out of their oil trade and buy some stocks.
It also shows why commodities are at all time highs: it is tough to produce commodities while demand is continuous.
As for the market, it should be strong this morning but it will be telling later in the day. It is not good to see oil and gold be weak because then there is a fear of deflation. Then again, short term, it might be since "the big boys" may get out of their oil trade and buy some stocks.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
CrazyMarket and 2 Order Entries
Short MGG 29.92 (32.32) - 34shares=1017.28
Buy AGN 61.12 (56.23) - 17shares=1039.04
UPDATE ON CURRENT HOLDS!!!
First, ASF . I didn't check to see if there was an earnings call. I don't like to play them since it is more or less gambling. Wasn't intentional and will try harder in the future to prevent this. I want to put the stop in at 38.
Second, if SII is down at the close tomorrow we will get out. It is always a suspicious sell off when a price, in this case oil, hits an all time high, like the equity indexes, and sells off DRAMATICALLY - a character trait not beneficial for traders.
I reiterate the long NG and short USO on a more long term basis. It may have started today quite dramatically. Remember these are commodities so there shouldn't be normally dramatic swings in a spread. But there can be, I encountered them myself.
MARKET IS FINISHING BOTTOMING PROCESS HENCE VOLATILITY. UNLESS YOU HAVE CONVICTION ON THE POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE SIGN--STAY AWAY--UNTIL THINGS WORK THEMSELVES OUT!!!
Buy AGN 61.12 (56.23) - 17shares=1039.04
UPDATE ON CURRENT HOLDS!!!
First, ASF . I didn't check to see if there was an earnings call. I don't like to play them since it is more or less gambling. Wasn't intentional and will try harder in the future to prevent this. I want to put the stop in at 38.
Second, if SII is down at the close tomorrow we will get out. It is always a suspicious sell off when a price, in this case oil, hits an all time high, like the equity indexes, and sells off DRAMATICALLY - a character trait not beneficial for traders.
I reiterate the long NG and short USO on a more long term basis. It may have started today quite dramatically. Remember these are commodities so there shouldn't be normally dramatic swings in a spread. But there can be, I encountered them myself.
MARKET IS FINISHING BOTTOMING PROCESS HENCE VOLATILITY. UNLESS YOU HAVE CONVICTION ON THE POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE SIGN--STAY AWAY--UNTIL THINGS WORK THEMSELVES OUT!!!
Irresponsible Journalism
Yesterday, the media had information that the Bancroft family wasn't going to sell tthe Wall Street Journal to News Corp. And Rupert Murdoch was ready to walk away from the deal. Today, the news media forgot yesterday's incorrect information and touts the ending of 104 year control of the WSJ.
If everything was as sensitive as people claim there would have been no leaks to the media. In fact, one should have bought the stock yesterday because the stock's price had Murdoch walking away factored into it. So my conclusion is that the insiders wanted another chance to buy as many shares of the WSJ as possible.
So once again if you traded with the knowledge that the media's job isn't for correct information but to sell information you could have profited. Of course, if the media information was incorrect most of the time then no one would read it, but there is enough inaccuracies to profit from.
Take the suprime meltdown and AHM falling to the wayside, everyone is shooting first and asking questions later. Now is the time to look for investments that work since you can finally begin to get a discount to what it's worth.
If everything was as sensitive as people claim there would have been no leaks to the media. In fact, one should have bought the stock yesterday because the stock's price had Murdoch walking away factored into it. So my conclusion is that the insiders wanted another chance to buy as many shares of the WSJ as possible.
So once again if you traded with the knowledge that the media's job isn't for correct information but to sell information you could have profited. Of course, if the media information was incorrect most of the time then no one would read it, but there is enough inaccuracies to profit from.
Take the suprime meltdown and AHM falling to the wayside, everyone is shooting first and asking questions later. Now is the time to look for investments that work since you can finally begin to get a discount to what it's worth.
Update on Crude Oil/Natural Gas Spread
Here is the chart I'm looking at in regards to Long natural gas and Short crude oil.
The top chart is crude oil's price going back 16 years.
The bottom is the ratio of crude to natural gas. You can see that everytime it gets to these levels it tends (doesn't guarantee) to go back down.
The top chart is crude oil's price going back 16 years.
The bottom is the ratio of crude to natural gas. You can see that everytime it gets to these levels it tends (doesn't guarantee) to go back down.
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