Stocks to own for Outrageous Turn of Events of Civilization

MO--Because people not only smoke tobacco but the illegal substance marijuana. And currently medicinal use cultivators are making money hand over fist (know there is a pun there but rushing to finish this)

TASR--Democrats take over every facet of government cumma FDR and outlaw guns in this country. Tasers and the spotted owl will be prevalent.

WFMI, NTRI--Medicine becomes more expensive as insurance covers less. Preventative medicine will be the next big thing.

CCJ--Nuclear power has taken over the US energy source as it is a way for energy independence and to provide employment for the millions unemployed.

PLA--At least the last time I was there, Europe had mags with topless girls in public new racks. In our country we have Maxim. I'd say PLA may be viewed as old and stodgy but it may set the standard for our more liberal point of view.

BBI--People are going to shop for rentals (remember my thesis of online sales tax), still use online rentals, and stream from portals such as BBI and NFLX. But wait thats not all. If they aren't going to watch the same lousy movie again they will spend the week as a gang member on their XBOX from the game they purchased or rented at BBI.

A Notion

Say commercial real estate is doomed to decline as is the consumer, but since it is a physical location providing real jobs wouldn't it be prudent for the local and state bureaucracy to do anything in its power to keep it solvent after so many other jobs have left the local area, but what can they do?

Tax online retailers like AMZN who I argue have gutted the market with their 0% sales tax. Additionally, there could be a shipping tax placed on consumer goods as well.

But here's the paradox the damage has been done and consumers expect lower prices currently so either way commercial real estate, I believe, will have to lower rents or will be receiving lower revenue from sales while interest rates may be going higher and their ability to expand is limited due to the banks having liquidity problems.

So in the end IYR, DJ Commercial Real Estate, has held up impressively so but I think if I was a shareholder of these companies I would want a little better yield.

IYR is not a AAA bond. And as such I want to get paid for my risk!

But long IYR/ short AMZN nevertheless is my notion.

IDLE HANDS

Jim Cramer is by far one of the best salesman that I am aware of. His approach takes the thinking out of making decisions. When I started this company I had a subscription to his newsletter which I thought may give us a leg up on any momentum driven sectors and some spending money. His picks: SWN and COG lost me 25% . I am disheartened because I avoided energy like the plague because of this expected drop, but as in all things that occur at midnight in the red light district, it sounded like a good idea at the time. For instance, he is currently touting DVN, which is a company that has great offshore prospects, it dropped around 26%. Though I would argue TOT has better prospects, since they have vocally made it known that they want to participate in the nuclear fuel cycle, which shows me the leadership of this company as opposed to DVN which made bold proclamations of their finds, but we’ll see if they are half way accurate with possible escalating costs while the price tags of companies in the uranium sector are decreasing and several of who are trading at their cash in the bank values.

Cramer, the public persona, will not get into a stock until it’s a proven commodity and then tout it is as a going and growing concern. But there are several ways to skin a cat, though I haven’t tried to skin even one, and believe my strategies are just as valid as his. And those will be employed henceforth. I bring this up because he has been an influence on me by giving me the encouragement to start a company.

As you are aware, the market has been going down but since I started seriously looking at the market midway in this bear market, I feared going short heavy and face a short squeeze. My strategy has always been long term gains but where there is a somewhat stable bottom.

Of course when there isn't one, I get nervouse and wanted to do something. "Idle hands are the devils play thing."

REPLACE HAND WITH CREDIT CARD...AND REPEAT TO MYSELF NO NEW NEWSLETTERS, AND CURRENT ONES AS WELL!!!!!!!

Come ON!!!!!! Don't Insult my Intelligence

Yesterday, we had very positive news concerning nuclear power and it was reported in all the news outlets. So what do they do today?

An article to confuse the situation.

Yesterday a NATION needed energy while here a town where a lady’s dog may be infected with uranium from the drinking water may cause France to reevaluate their dependence on nuclear power.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arfiLzs9r9O8&refer=home

COME ON!!!!!!!!!

When oil was about to fall we had nonsense articles on iran/Israel, shortages, Saudi minister proclaiming $150 oil, and boone pickens with his wind power idea. That was a time to short which WE did. But not a lot.

CCJ is going to 60 albeit slower than the airlines and banks move, but nevertheless..
Paladin was up yesterday so some people are getting it.

Charity and Guilt

Why do people give to charity and others do not. Is it a religious or moral conviction that leads one to give. Or possibly it out of thankfulness. But at the end of the day, I would say most give out of guilt.

Today, I'm at a coffee shop reading and thinking about the market when a homeless man from Africa and an odd instrument came up to me, slapped his instrument on my paper and started talking to me incomprehensibly to me, not from drunkenness but from his accent.

I told him abruptly that I was reading and didn't want to be disturbed in which he proceeded to continue with his act. I cut him off and asked if he was looking for charity and he said yes. So I handed him what is the equivalence of two dollars, as not to appear cheap, and he refused it saying he needed 100 shekels, but he would take 50. I persisted in saying that he is going to get $2 from me and that is it, sternly. He refused the money and walked on.

First, it shows that pennies aren't working in this inflationary global society; since I have to expand my theme because this occurred overseas.
Second, my guilt not giving him money. Deep inside my body revults at the idea at not giving and helping. The same feeling I have when I miss an opportunity in the market and try to board as the train has clearly left the station.
Third, if I saw him again or someone similar, to have a more positive outcome, I would refuse the act but see what his concerns are. And then possibly donate. But his attitude had me wound up and it was possibly from just misunderstanding each other.
Four, it reminded me of a former employee who knew how to get under your skin but when you were about to blow your top, he gave you a Cheshire smile that let you know he got to you.
Five, yet when I went to the health food store to buy food, the clerk said I looked relaxed. So in conclusion...
Six, when you are in a high state, you are lonely because it is hard to maintain, few are doing it and essentially what your painful gut is telling you is ... loneliness. But you have to confront it if you are to succeed.
Seven, be humble. Donald trump noted that when the real estate market crashed and he was bankrupt that the peddler outside his building had more money than him. You just don't know what will happen and that is the joy and fear of life. Find the middle road, but the one less traveled!

NOTE self to hopefully read a few bios or ask a few champions their feelings or ancedotes when they play for keeps.
IDEA for broadcast networks: as you are fond of doing now, asking idiotic questions to players and coaches in the midst of game-idiotic in the sense that what are they going to really say? Why not wire these athlete so we can measure their internal clocks. I believe not only would it make good tv, but lend a contribution to society besides record endorsement deals and steroid allegations and game fixing.

Uranium Miners Paradox

Yesterday Cameco sold off 2 points in line with the energy complex as a whole. But since when did Cameco move with them? It is already languishing near its 52 weak low and the price of uranium seems to have bottomed last month. Paladin as well seems to have developed a short term top. I hate fighting the trend, but if I was looking at this from a long term perspective, what more do I want out of a company?

Ultimately, Cameco is the best way to play the nuclear revival since it is diversified and, I believe, good management since it waited, patiently, for the speculative mania to play out in the junior miners and is slowly accumulating premiere assets and joint ventures.

Areva, of course, is the Exxon of nuclear but it is a very illiquid company. So Cameco I would liken to ConocoPhilips.

Importance of belief

Please read this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=a_.8H0oQOemI&refer=home

It refers to people's frustrations after losses in the stock market. Unfortunately, stocks are often seen as gambling vehicles instead of businesses.

Unless you are trading with a set discipline and proven results, find a few companies you like, research, and when the price is right - buy! After that just follow the companies progress, irrespective of price, because ultimately it is a lagging indicator. And you sell when they cannot grow anymore, like GM, or the price is wildly overvalued.

Granted if you view it as a business, you are betting on the company, but in the end gambling is short term in nature and businesses are long term, because it just takes time to succeed. Look at GM, it would have been a wonderful 45 year bet.

Burning...

Today 4 bits of news couldn’t be more bullish for nuclear.

1) India deal with US proceeding and Obama doesn’t appear against it

2) Germany considering getting back to a more neutral stance on nuclear…an article used the word crumbling when referring to anti nuc protestors

3) Offshore drilling is a serious sign of no oil. Today the president unofficially lifted the ban on offshorte drilling

4) Cameco bought a mine in Australia where one is not allowed to. So I would assume they either expect that to change or wait it out.

If there existed a toothfairy

then AIG is on its LONG TERM UPTRENDLINE dating back to 1980. The two remaining lines are on $15 and $9. Yes, that is a potential 50% drop, but from a 28 year perspective, not significant if the LT lines holds. Deep in the money 2010 options may be great for situations like this.

The downside is several DJ Industrials are breaking down horribly and there is no guarantee that their franchises will survive the devastation.

And that would mean a BRAVE NEW WORLD. And new heroes and idols to look up to. And new enemies to cast stones at.

But as God told Jonah "It doesn't pay to destroy, even if it is delayed, there is still opportunity for things to turn around."

Another way of putting it is "The trend is your friend, until proven otherwise."

AIG is a buy till $9.

Short Oil Redux

Oil is up over $3.00 so completely off.

But still maintain that it is closer to the end then the beginning but there is possibly better vehicles out there than SZO.

Need to research, but it takes so much time!

Short Oil

But gradually since there could be 20% more upside, but at least 33% to the downside.
I'm using SZO currently for this but here are the reasons:
1) If Israel was going to attack Iran, they wouldn't announce it. If they did, how could they manage a full out attack if the one in Lebanon didn't succeed. And the nuclear construction is underground which makes it hard for Israel to use strategies that may have worked in the covert attack on the Syrian facilities.
2) Gold usually goes down when things are imminent, not up
3) The Saudia Arabian oil minister predicted higher prices which I respond "show me the man that has made money on any of the Shiekdom's proclamations."
4) Volume is ebbing in the pits and stocks in the sector aren't flying off the charts.
5) No one believes it possible.