1) He used Clayton Homes and the mobile home community's early malfeasance with loans as a precursor to what occurred with home mortgages. (History rhymes!)
2) 2008 was the treasury bubble, and high grade corporates are cheap
3) Government actions imply inflation
4) Always have cash so you can sleep at night
5) Google Mae West quotes since they are apropo of what occurs in the marketplace
6) I feel a little bit better that he thinks oil will be a bit higher than it is today
7) Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are greeted by yawns.
8) Berkshire has a 35billion dollar bet that the SP500, FTSE100, NIKKEI225 , and EuroStoxx50 won't tank---think retained earnings!
9) Black-Scholes not exactly all there for long term risk assessment
10) Private equity used to be referred to as LBO groups, and whatever term used, are a bunch of putzes.
11) The US in the 20th century has gone through 2 world wars (and one we were losing at the beginning), a great depression, and several recessions, but through it all our standard of living has improved.
12) Hard to compete on funding due to the government picking the winners and losers but allowing them cheap access to capital. (like Citi)
12) Contrary to Mr. Bernanke's assessment, the economy may not be through the wash cycle as it cleans up the excesses of the previous bull market.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Concerning Sothebys (BID)
NEW YORK, Feb. 26, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Board of Directors of Sotheby's (NYSE:BID - News) has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 for the first quarter of 2009. The first quarter dividend is payable on March 16, 2008 to shareholders of record as of March 9, 2009.
In the business section of the International Herald Tribune, a writer mentioned that the record Christie's auction is just hype. But a $0.15 quarterly dividend (coming out to a $0.60 annually which is about an 8.3% dividend), tells a different story.
Cash is king and Sothebys has it and is giving it to shareholders. What is there not to like? They could have easily stopped their dividend but they didn't.
In the business section of the International Herald Tribune, a writer mentioned that the record Christie's auction is just hype. But a $0.15 quarterly dividend (coming out to a $0.60 annually which is about an 8.3% dividend), tells a different story.
Cash is king and Sothebys has it and is giving it to shareholders. What is there not to like? They could have easily stopped their dividend but they didn't.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Discrepancy Time
New York Times reported a record art auction in France run by Christie's in this devastating bear market: the loot was Yves Saint Laurent's accumulated art treasures. It could be the idle rich ignorant of impending doom as the passengers of the Titanic were.
But then again maybe it's the smart money.
Sotheby's, BID, a public company is ridiculously cheap and is part of the small club of auctioneers in this tight yet lucrative industry.
It's a buy based on the news coming out of France.
But then again maybe it's the smart money.
Sotheby's, BID, a public company is ridiculously cheap and is part of the small club of auctioneers in this tight yet lucrative industry.
It's a buy based on the news coming out of France.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Remember those words
In his semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke predicted the economy is likely to keep contracting in the first six months of 2009. But he also said "there is a reasonable prospect" the recession will end this year. He warned that a recovery will require getting credit and financial markets to operate normally.
He gave so many caveats that I might as well be giving my opinions, like the Japanese Finance Minister, over a few sakes and a better location than congress.
Suck it up and make a clear and intelligible opinion, Mr. Bernanke...But I will say one things...he's thinking optimistically!
He gave so many caveats that I might as well be giving my opinions, like the Japanese Finance Minister, over a few sakes and a better location than congress.
Suck it up and make a clear and intelligible opinion, Mr. Bernanke...But I will say one things...he's thinking optimistically!
I received like 8 comments today
concerning my blog and about 4 of them were a list of other bloggers and no comments. I do not know what that means or why the blog comments happen all at once, so I am going to take it on good faith that they are genuine people who enjoy someone's interaction with financial markets in general.
But I do know people are reading the blog, as I am becoming busier, and truly appreciate the trust and interest they have shown me so am trying hard to be sincere and write things of merit, but I will admit it is hard.
But I do know people are reading the blog, as I am becoming busier, and truly appreciate the trust and interest they have shown me so am trying hard to be sincere and write things of merit, but I will admit it is hard.
Monday, February 23, 2009
General Electric
1) Jeff Immelt, I see, is the largest shareholder as an insider, as it should be.
2) I also see that GE is below 100bln market cap
3) Pays an outlandish 13.2% (if it is cut in half-that's 6.6%)
4) Has a portfolio of businesses that in theory should stand the test of time
5) Has been around since the BEGINNING of the Dow industrials as has Exxon and look at how Exxon has held up.
6) The essentials that GE sells hasn't changed
7) Mr. Immelt is an Ohio boy and I'm partial to that fact.
These type of panic sell offs tend to have 100% rebounds, but if one is long term in nature...look at how the past 100 years worked out for GE.
2) I also see that GE is below 100bln market cap
3) Pays an outlandish 13.2% (if it is cut in half-that's 6.6%)
4) Has a portfolio of businesses that in theory should stand the test of time
5) Has been around since the BEGINNING of the Dow industrials as has Exxon and look at how Exxon has held up.
6) The essentials that GE sells hasn't changed
7) Mr. Immelt is an Ohio boy and I'm partial to that fact.
These type of panic sell offs tend to have 100% rebounds, but if one is long term in nature...look at how the past 100 years worked out for GE.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Why one has to dig deeper than reacting just to news events
http://www.deepcapture.com/would-cnbc-let-gasparino-say-this-on-air/
And, yes, I had an argument with my friend about why I own Citigroup at $4 and change, but the fact remains that the last time it was this cheap, the company had the same fears and got out of it.
Additionally, the Kahn Brothers who are just as famous value investors as anyone else bandied around nowadays added to their purchase of Citigroup. According to what I read, they own 40,000 shares.
People listen to George Soros, Steve Cohen (though he did warn people of impending financial collapse), Bill Ackman, Alan Greenspan (hired by short sellers) and several others who SHORT the market and have vested interests that are not exactly in line with positive, healthy, sustainable economics for the majority of individuals. When you hear a value investor talk, he has the ability to tell the truth since his investments span decades and banks on the profit opportunities from the absolute trend of human growth and innovation that has never stopped, but may be temporarily waylaid.
But that doesn't mean I am against shorting, just differentiating an opinion versus fact, and that short selling should be regulated a bit in order to prevent the compelling evidence of naked short selling.
Economists and historians to the man on the street compare our time to the Great Depression, but no one back then knew what was coming. In life there is a saying of "don't take things for granted" and in this situation analyze what is going on (it is fearful I admit but look for the cracks), think about what is important to you (a lox sandwich), but don't panic, because when this chaotic period is over...let the good times ring (and that may be inflation).
thINK positive!
And, yes, I had an argument with my friend about why I own Citigroup at $4 and change, but the fact remains that the last time it was this cheap, the company had the same fears and got out of it.
Additionally, the Kahn Brothers who are just as famous value investors as anyone else bandied around nowadays added to their purchase of Citigroup. According to what I read, they own 40,000 shares.
People listen to George Soros, Steve Cohen (though he did warn people of impending financial collapse), Bill Ackman, Alan Greenspan (hired by short sellers) and several others who SHORT the market and have vested interests that are not exactly in line with positive, healthy, sustainable economics for the majority of individuals. When you hear a value investor talk, he has the ability to tell the truth since his investments span decades and banks on the profit opportunities from the absolute trend of human growth and innovation that has never stopped, but may be temporarily waylaid.
But that doesn't mean I am against shorting, just differentiating an opinion versus fact, and that short selling should be regulated a bit in order to prevent the compelling evidence of naked short selling.
Economists and historians to the man on the street compare our time to the Great Depression, but no one back then knew what was coming. In life there is a saying of "don't take things for granted" and in this situation analyze what is going on (it is fearful I admit but look for the cracks), think about what is important to you (a lox sandwich), but don't panic, because when this chaotic period is over...let the good times ring (and that may be inflation).
thINK positive!
Friday, February 20, 2009
ASA and the market
Since gold is quite popular and in the news and it is not the bargain it was a few months ago, I believe the only thing to own are the penny stocks or a well managed gold fund such as ASA.
Additionally, the market may rally from here because my stomach hurts looking at the computer screen. And it is not from the bad eggs I had the other day.
Additionally, the market may rally from here because my stomach hurts looking at the computer screen. And it is not from the bad eggs I had the other day.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
I cannot stress enough that Apple
is a rotten one and the 4+ drop today is just the beginning. Besides SRS it's the only other thing I'm truly bearish on.
The markets are moving and where am I?
I unfortunately had a bad meal (eggs over easy) yesterday that made a bit sick in my stomach so have been a bit out of touch with the market. I hope this weekend to add a few things that the Huffington Post missed. Regards.
Commercial Real Estate
Truthfully, the way to have shorted it was to stay short IYR, but somehow the mental strength to maintain short positions is perplexing for most so they came out with that financial intrument called Ultrashort Commercial Real Estate. Just there are price distortions, which cause it to be more of a trading vehicle than anything else. But if the trend is strong on the downside SRS should be be at least in the 150-200 range.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
It's Funny
but I notice that I get more views of my blog when I randomly pick stocks to pick, but I cannot do that all the time, since I am not by a computer all day. But I will say that short term the market is bearish, but I think now is the time to take a step back and STOP trading and look at the big picture.
One has to admit that the market wants to go down and accept the fact it can go down an additional 50%, but that does not mean it is wrong to buy stocks here because it may not go down and in the scheme of things, the long term gains should be tremendous.
The fact is governments are printing money and these situations usually lend themselves to hyperinflation, or at least inflationary pressures. And the only way to protect oneself, and possibly profit from it, is to own physical assets that are fundamental to any society.
Currently, the market is deflating as the projections of the economy get smaller and smaller, but a value investor doesn't buy because of growth and, now, doesn't stand back as prices deflate. It is funny to see growth investors turn around and be short investors using the same logic but on the flipside. The problem with that is called the short squeeze.
Value investors aren't concerned about it because they are enjoying their life, using their minds, and worrying about more important things, like a Hershey bar or Lay's potato chips.
Or maybe that's me.
One has to admit that the market wants to go down and accept the fact it can go down an additional 50%, but that does not mean it is wrong to buy stocks here because it may not go down and in the scheme of things, the long term gains should be tremendous.
The fact is governments are printing money and these situations usually lend themselves to hyperinflation, or at least inflationary pressures. And the only way to protect oneself, and possibly profit from it, is to own physical assets that are fundamental to any society.
Currently, the market is deflating as the projections of the economy get smaller and smaller, but a value investor doesn't buy because of growth and, now, doesn't stand back as prices deflate. It is funny to see growth investors turn around and be short investors using the same logic but on the flipside. The problem with that is called the short squeeze.
Value investors aren't concerned about it because they are enjoying their life, using their minds, and worrying about more important things, like a Hershey bar or Lay's potato chips.
Or maybe that's me.
CHEAP STOCK BUY! VocalTec
VOCL, and I get this all from Yahoo Finance, is trading for about $0.22 per share and its market cap is approximately $1 million dollars. But cash on hand is $8 million dollars. And they actually have a business that is growing orders in...Africa!
Take a look and buy a few shares its better than putting it in the bank.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/090216/20090216005268.html?.v=1
Take a look and buy a few shares its better than putting it in the bank.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/090216/20090216005268.html?.v=1
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Forget Forex and buy these levered currencies
Forex is a wonderful area for people to make money where the big boys once had the playground to itself. But it is a levered game and most people and even the smart ones can get tripped up with the concept of leverage and "being right, but at the wrong time." So with that in mind buy the most despised currencies in the most overlooked region, Africa.
I'm talking about the:
Kenyan Shilling
Ugandan Shilling
South African Rand
Libyan Dinar
Liberian Dollar
Nigerian Naira
Tanzanian Shilling
These will if my concept of African growth plays out appreciate like nobodies business.
They will have trade surpluses, growth, and possibly stability. Remember these countries are starting from nothing and have everything to gain.
I'm talking about the:
Kenyan Shilling
Ugandan Shilling
South African Rand
Libyan Dinar
Liberian Dollar
Nigerian Naira
Tanzanian Shilling
These will if my concept of African growth plays out appreciate like nobodies business.
They will have trade surpluses, growth, and possibly stability. Remember these countries are starting from nothing and have everything to gain.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
And don't take my word for it
1) Bill Gates has been unloading shares of Microsoft and spending more time in Africa
2) Angelina Jolie has an obsession with Africa second only to Brad Pitt
3) Warren Buffet is donating his Berkshire shares (what like 30 billion dollars?) to Gate's Foundation which spends quite a lot of money in Africa
Buy Africa
And as for what is Warren buying? he has bought the entire SP500 by selling that put option. So mix and match and have a good time buying up the fabled companies in US financial history.
2) Angelina Jolie has an obsession with Africa second only to Brad Pitt
3) Warren Buffet is donating his Berkshire shares (what like 30 billion dollars?) to Gate's Foundation which spends quite a lot of money in Africa
Buy Africa
And as for what is Warren buying? he has bought the entire SP500 by selling that put option. So mix and match and have a good time buying up the fabled companies in US financial history.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Some thoughts
Look at the major gold miners, they are all issuing more stock and it is not at their highs but at their rally highs. Obviously it is to buy out some juniors, but as you can see they react to the market and not the other way around which to me says bad management.
Hecla on the other hand only issued shared when they had to. Junior miners as a whole appear wildly underpriced as the market is taking note of gold.
You can buy the big miners and profit but all those stock issuances are going to flow into the junior shareholders pockets so be ready.
And I forgot to add GSS to my Africa miner plays from yesterday.
And on a slightly different subject, look at Alcoa and management, they sold at the top of the market parts of their company while their competitor Alcan became part of the over leveraged Rio Tinto. Now Rio is going to be selling big stakes to Chinalco. What a waste. Alcoa has and should be the trend setter in aluminum as it has since it created the business as Exxon did with petrol and General Electric did electricity.
Hecla on the other hand only issued shared when they had to. Junior miners as a whole appear wildly underpriced as the market is taking note of gold.
You can buy the big miners and profit but all those stock issuances are going to flow into the junior shareholders pockets so be ready.
And I forgot to add GSS to my Africa miner plays from yesterday.
And on a slightly different subject, look at Alcoa and management, they sold at the top of the market parts of their company while their competitor Alcan became part of the over leveraged Rio Tinto. Now Rio is going to be selling big stakes to Chinalco. What a waste. Alcoa has and should be the trend setter in aluminum as it has since it created the business as Exxon did with petrol and General Electric did electricity.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Regarding Africa
Ignore the market it cannot make up its mind except on gold. Every week there is some nonsense performance like we are having. I would say the volatility is occurring from leveraged and unsophisticated bets currently. Buy companies that aren't cheap but can weather the storm. If you can't find any do something else like plant flowers, enjoy the outdoors, or start your own political party.
Anyways I picked up two tidbits concerning my bullish Africa bet.
1) US advised Uganda in its battle with rebels that unfortunately failed on the Congo border. But it shows US involvement in a "free" Uganda.
2) Article in IHT concerning the growth and need of internet infrastructure in Africa.
So here are the African picks: Lonrho, IBI, Anvil Mining, Equinox, and Paladin.
Anyways I picked up two tidbits concerning my bullish Africa bet.
1) US advised Uganda in its battle with rebels that unfortunately failed on the Congo border. But it shows US involvement in a "free" Uganda.
2) Article in IHT concerning the growth and need of internet infrastructure in Africa.
So here are the African picks: Lonrho, IBI, Anvil Mining, Equinox, and Paladin.
Seeking Hecla
This is a well written piece on Hecla and its issuance of debt. Ultimately if one is bullish silver, the leverage the Hecla has will make it substantively higher than it is today, but at current market prices we may be in some short term pain.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/119319-hecla-mining-caught-in-a-bad-market
http://seekingalpha.com/article/119319-hecla-mining-caught-in-a-bad-market
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Conflict
I think this expresses conflict and am not sure how to relate it to finance except for the fact of his illegal activities, though minor, started his status as artist. So the saying large fortunes are usually started by a crime. And 'so it goes.'
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-02-07-artist-arrested_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Or I could have linked it with the A-Rod controversy but that is for another day.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-02-07-artist-arrested_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Or I could have linked it with the A-Rod controversy but that is for another day.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
My friend Yitzchok has this to say about Executive Payments
Executive Pay Limits: A Quick Analysis of Best Intentions
The media has been reporting on Obama's new salary cap proposal, which will reign in executive pay at nothing greater than $500,000 a year if the company is taking bailout cash (1), (2). You can read the versions of CBS and Bloomberg in the links provided below. Below, I am going to provide my quick analysis on the salary cap concept.
There is no argument here that financial/banking executives should not take super-sized salaries when receiving bailout cash until the cash is returned. The company is not performing, so they should not be compensated for driving the business into the ground, whether the factors are endogenous or exogenous. However, there is a rub to a cap, which are market forces that will manifest into a brain drain. The brain drain will convert these best intentions into the nails that seal the coffin.
And this brain drain will revolve around players who 1. have more than enough money to live without working and 2. those people who could easily start a new firm or join another firm in order to make more than the cap. Healthy firms will pay top dollar for that top talent. And, as these employees leave, the human capital will be drained to a point where bailed out banks will go deeper into the red. Wall Street does not slave unless paid.
The bottom line is that the executives and other employees who have made over $500,000 in the past will either play this game or not. And, my bet is they will not play. They will leave these bailed-out existing companies to either form new ones or join healthy ones. They will start new, and they will not allow the cap to hamper the reward system they have been endeared to so much. The bailed out existing companies will continue in their death spiral as they will not be able to retain the employees that actually make the businesses go. And, that will be the end of them. All the money thrown at them will be good money thrown at bad.
In conclusion, they should have been left to fail from the very start in order to minimalize the impact on the taxpayer. The very idea that they can be bailed out serves as mechanism to take wild risks. If the business model rewards such risk taking, then they should be allowed to fail until the business environment teaches them how to best run things. And, a bailout does not serve such a purpose.
(1) http://wcbstv.com/politics/executive.pay.limits.2.927082.html
(2) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYyKmUuU4HwM&refer=home
--
Coming soon... Exposure Capital LLC...
2009 PREDICTIONS:
1. US 2-Year Treasury: 0.25% yield during the Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 period.
2. US 10-Year Treasury: 1.5% yield during the Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 period.
3. DOW JONES Industrial Average: 5,000 by year end.
4. Mortgage Rates (30-Year Conventional): 4.25% by year end.
5. Crude Oil: $20 /barrel by year end.
More to come..
The media has been reporting on Obama's new salary cap proposal, which will reign in executive pay at nothing greater than $500,000 a year if the company is taking bailout cash (1), (2). You can read the versions of CBS and Bloomberg in the links provided below. Below, I am going to provide my quick analysis on the salary cap concept.
There is no argument here that financial/banking executives should not take super-sized salaries when receiving bailout cash until the cash is returned. The company is not performing, so they should not be compensated for driving the business into the ground, whether the factors are endogenous or exogenous. However, there is a rub to a cap, which are market forces that will manifest into a brain drain. The brain drain will convert these best intentions into the nails that seal the coffin.
And this brain drain will revolve around players who 1. have more than enough money to live without working and 2. those people who could easily start a new firm or join another firm in order to make more than the cap. Healthy firms will pay top dollar for that top talent. And, as these employees leave, the human capital will be drained to a point where bailed out banks will go deeper into the red. Wall Street does not slave unless paid.
The bottom line is that the executives and other employees who have made over $500,000 in the past will either play this game or not. And, my bet is they will not play. They will leave these bailed-out existing companies to either form new ones or join healthy ones. They will start new, and they will not allow the cap to hamper the reward system they have been endeared to so much. The bailed out existing companies will continue in their death spiral as they will not be able to retain the employees that actually make the businesses go. And, that will be the end of them. All the money thrown at them will be good money thrown at bad.
In conclusion, they should have been left to fail from the very start in order to minimalize the impact on the taxpayer. The very idea that they can be bailed out serves as mechanism to take wild risks. If the business model rewards such risk taking, then they should be allowed to fail until the business environment teaches them how to best run things. And, a bailout does not serve such a purpose.
(1) http://wcbstv.com/politics/executive.pay.limits.2.927082.html
(2) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYyKmUuU4HwM&refer=home
--
Coming soon... Exposure Capital LLC...
2009 PREDICTIONS:
1. US 2-Year Treasury: 0.25% yield during the Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 period.
2. US 10-Year Treasury: 1.5% yield during the Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 period.
3. DOW JONES Industrial Average: 5,000 by year end.
4. Mortgage Rates (30-Year Conventional): 4.25% by year end.
5. Crude Oil: $20 /barrel by year end.
More to come..
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Hecla follow up
Hecla has cash flow problems which they should when silver drops from 20 bucks an ounce to about 8 bucks an ounce. But this isn't a bank that is leveraged, but a miner with great properties, established management, and selling something that has been in shortage for the past 20 years.
Instead of issuing more shares throughout the commodity boom they borrowed money because quite possibly they could pay it back.
PAAS and SSRI may have better properties but they haven't mined to the extent Hecla has and I believe that while Hecla resolves these issues, most miners are going to face start up costs, delays, and loans while Hecla keep turning out the ounces.
And yes it is unnerving once again to buy miners and see their price drop 40% in two days but ultimately one has to take the big picture in consideration as well as they are still operational.
Instead of issuing more shares throughout the commodity boom they borrowed money because quite possibly they could pay it back.
PAAS and SSRI may have better properties but they haven't mined to the extent Hecla has and I believe that while Hecla resolves these issues, most miners are going to face start up costs, delays, and loans while Hecla keep turning out the ounces.
And yes it is unnerving once again to buy miners and see their price drop 40% in two days but ultimately one has to take the big picture in consideration as well as they are still operational.
Forget the Amazon and Overstock with these shares
Overstock, OSTK, is the bastard child of Amazon and if anyone has been noticing it has been tailing Amazon's performance recently.
I was going to recommend it yesterday but was disturbed at the bad performance but it is outperforming today so I would say, technically, the bottom is in on this one. It caught my attention when it was up, I believe, a buck on Friday while the market was pounded, but wanted one more day of confirmation which may be today.
Overstock on these cheap shares. Has great management and now just needs to show a profit to really get going from here, but if it does show a profit, it probably won't be this cheap either.
I was going to recommend it yesterday but was disturbed at the bad performance but it is outperforming today so I would say, technically, the bottom is in on this one. It caught my attention when it was up, I believe, a buck on Friday while the market was pounded, but wanted one more day of confirmation which may be today.
Overstock on these cheap shares. Has great management and now just needs to show a profit to really get going from here, but if it does show a profit, it probably won't be this cheap either.
Today I received in my inbox
a few comments on my blog. I appreciate the attention and admit the faults in lack of detail and grammar which is why I just subscribed to the Economist in hopes of improving my prose.
I am trying to fill my blog with good ideas but in my rush to do so I sometimes do not take the time for careful analysis.
Please send me your thought etc. I would think it would make my site more informative.
I am trying to fill my blog with good ideas but in my rush to do so I sometimes do not take the time for careful analysis.
Please send me your thought etc. I would think it would make my site more informative.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
There is no such thing as a free lunch
but there does exist a thing called cheap stocks.
If Dennys can maintain $2 and change for a meaningful time then I'd say the bottom is in on this one that started with the $54 million dollar settlement with 6 black secret service agents.
We got some gamblers in the company after the positive buzz it received but what will be telling is how value is placed on it over the next few months.
I haven't bought yet but will definitely be looking at it. I came across a company called Western Sizzle from a site called Fat Pitch Financial and though it isn't exactly a charmer, the management seems quite able.
So if you want to get in on the restaurant biz then I'd go WEST and DENN.
My favorite places to eat, though, are Red Lobster and Olive Garden so maybe one day that stock will get to be ridiculously cheap so I can buy it, DRI. Or pare trade it with DIN, who is so up to its neck in debt I don't believe it will ever recover.
Long WEST DENN DRI Short DIN MCD (It was a sure thing when it was $15, not it is a suckers bet)
If Dennys can maintain $2 and change for a meaningful time then I'd say the bottom is in on this one that started with the $54 million dollar settlement with 6 black secret service agents.
We got some gamblers in the company after the positive buzz it received but what will be telling is how value is placed on it over the next few months.
I haven't bought yet but will definitely be looking at it. I came across a company called Western Sizzle from a site called Fat Pitch Financial and though it isn't exactly a charmer, the management seems quite able.
So if you want to get in on the restaurant biz then I'd go WEST and DENN.
My favorite places to eat, though, are Red Lobster and Olive Garden so maybe one day that stock will get to be ridiculously cheap so I can buy it, DRI. Or pare trade it with DIN, who is so up to its neck in debt I don't believe it will ever recover.
Long WEST DENN DRI Short DIN MCD (It was a sure thing when it was $15, not it is a suckers bet)
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Gold is at an interesting juncture
I would say that if gold does rally from here the junior miners which have lagged, and I define lagged as lack of follow through as gold hit its recent high last Friday, should start going up in double digit percentage terms.
Gold is at a precarious pivot. One could argue that gold is ready to top out as it hit highs in all major currencies. Or one can argue that the bullish mania is about to start.
If that is the case then the juniors are going to surge so a long juniors / short gold may be appropriate. I shorted NEM.
Gold is at a precarious pivot. One could argue that gold is ready to top out as it hit highs in all major currencies. Or one can argue that the bullish mania is about to start.
If that is the case then the juniors are going to surge so a long juniors / short gold may be appropriate. I shorted NEM.
The cracks are starting to form
Granted commercial real estate has already sold off more than 50% but it hasn't caved in like the financial institutions; even though it is basically a component of them.
Today Simon Property Group is reducing their dividends and replacing it with share dilution. The entire purpose of owning REITS is for the dividends and the entire point of owning mining companies is for the appreciation potential.
SO look at how miners performed the past couple years and look at REITs. I would like to think the tables will be turned in their fortunes and that those short sellers will be going short heavily REITs as they squeeze the Johnny come latelys in the mining sector.
Lets see.
Today Simon Property Group is reducing their dividends and replacing it with share dilution. The entire purpose of owning REITS is for the dividends and the entire point of owning mining companies is for the appreciation potential.
SO look at how miners performed the past couple years and look at REITs. I would like to think the tables will be turned in their fortunes and that those short sellers will be going short heavily REITs as they squeeze the Johnny come latelys in the mining sector.
Lets see.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Buy the Pound
If the Pound is down tomorrow by 3PM get out of position, but believe it has bottomed short term. Possibly, the Euro and Pound are stabilizing which is why gold sold off today. For us gringos, gold hit record highs in the Euro and Pound, so a sell off in relation to those currencies is in the cards.
The Pound, as measured by the FXB, was down 1.39%
Gold, as measured by GLD, was down 2.71%
The Pound, as measured by the FXB, was down 1.39%
Gold, as measured by GLD, was down 2.71%
Michael Phelps
was caught smoking pot. Big surprise from the young Olympian and even bigger one on how the media has handled it.
The absurdity of tarnishing his accomplishments when what should be put into question is why not legalize it.
He did it at a college party and it would be a fair assessment that it wasn't and will not be the last party to host cannibus.
Buy MO.
The absurdity of tarnishing his accomplishments when what should be put into question is why not legalize it.
He did it at a college party and it would be a fair assessment that it wasn't and will not be the last party to host cannibus.
Buy MO.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
USEC
It was rulings like this that created a steel boom in this country.
In a unanimous opinion written by Justice David Souter, the Supreme Court held that the Commerce Department’s determination that SWU transactions constitute sales of goods covered by the antidumping laws was reasonable and was “reinforced by practical reasons aimed at preserving the effectiveness of antidumping duties.”
Will SWUs that USEC manufactures go up in value due to limited demand? I believe so and will benefit USEC's bottom line and help with the cash flow they need to pay off their debt and construction of their new untested centrifuge.
This isn't value investing by the book but this ruling has tremendous value and creates a moat since USEC is the only show in the USA.
Also if you think about it, they create carbon credits. For every SWU created their is less demand for carbon.
In a unanimous opinion written by Justice David Souter, the Supreme Court held that the Commerce Department’s determination that SWU transactions constitute sales of goods covered by the antidumping laws was reasonable and was “reinforced by practical reasons aimed at preserving the effectiveness of antidumping duties.”
Will SWUs that USEC manufactures go up in value due to limited demand? I believe so and will benefit USEC's bottom line and help with the cash flow they need to pay off their debt and construction of their new untested centrifuge.
This isn't value investing by the book but this ruling has tremendous value and creates a moat since USEC is the only show in the USA.
Also if you think about it, they create carbon credits. For every SWU created their is less demand for carbon.
A better phrase then my use of the word 'sale' or 'discount'
Warren Buffett used this quote to describe sales on Wall Street. I got this off the Fwallstreet blog and I hope to use more quotes that are as far away from Omaha and CNBC as possible, but if the phrase has merit why not share it.
You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus
We can see that in the pricing of Cisco, bearish, and Apple, bullish. Time will show the true weight of a business and management.
You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus
We can see that in the pricing of Cisco, bearish, and Apple, bullish. Time will show the true weight of a business and management.
CSCO vs AAPL
Cisco and Apple are two tech bellwethers but only one will emerge from the recession and my bet will be on Cisco.
Cisco is an infrastructure monopoly while Apple has a competitive edge only through its latest products. But a monopoly implies that there is no other show in town while with Apple it is basically Gulliver surrounded by Lilliputians waiting to be tied down and branded.
Cisco is an infrastructure monopoly while Apple has a competitive edge only through its latest products. But a monopoly implies that there is no other show in town while with Apple it is basically Gulliver surrounded by Lilliputians waiting to be tied down and branded.
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