Friday, October 31, 2008
Another Tyson revival?
Tyson is on the move. Could it feed off of Pilgrim's weakness? It sure looks like it. TSN to $11?
Outrageous Scandulous!
What would happen if ATT, Verizon, and Time Warners' financials get bleak, or at least reported that way, to go to Washington for a bailout, but not the type you and I imagine.
The one they want is the ability to charge websites, like blogspot and yahoo, for people accessing them over their cable connections.
It would make paper companies shine again. Of course, this is long term in nature and who has time to wait, but still...
The one they want is the ability to charge websites, like blogspot and yahoo, for people accessing them over their cable connections.
It would make paper companies shine again. Of course, this is long term in nature and who has time to wait, but still...
One more point on GS
Yes, the market is down this morning. But perceptions have changed of late concerning the economy, so profit taking is in order, not I believe, a resumption of the bear market.
Anyways, getting back to GS, it is a bank now and banks pay dividends whether they are financially healthy or not. From that perspective alone, we are buying, yes, a penny stock financial firm at $90 a share (maybe lower this morning) with the added kicker of a dividend down the road; instead of the partners making fat bonuses annually it will now be the shareholders that reap the reward.
I believe at one time GS was trading at $55 and it can go there, but I believe and any money put down on any stock currently is a belief, not a truth, is bullish since it's still in business.
And that is all you need right now. A company that can stay in business, hold its franchise, and wait for an economic recovery, though it may tarry. Long term it should outpace inflation.
Anyways, getting back to GS, it is a bank now and banks pay dividends whether they are financially healthy or not. From that perspective alone, we are buying, yes, a penny stock financial firm at $90 a share (maybe lower this morning) with the added kicker of a dividend down the road; instead of the partners making fat bonuses annually it will now be the shareholders that reap the reward.
I believe at one time GS was trading at $55 and it can go there, but I believe and any money put down on any stock currently is a belief, not a truth, is bullish since it's still in business.
And that is all you need right now. A company that can stay in business, hold its franchise, and wait for an economic recovery, though it may tarry. Long term it should outpace inflation.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The chicken dance
I can be wrong and my loyal readers know it is more than once that I have been.
But GS is playing chicken today not knowing where to go.
Yes, it's a $90 stock but I really think today or tomorrow or at least by Monday it can be a $100 one.
Whose going to make the first move?
But GS is playing chicken today not knowing where to go.
Yes, it's a $90 stock but I really think today or tomorrow or at least by Monday it can be a $100 one.
Whose going to make the first move?
MS and GS discrepency
MS is up 8% today while GS is down close to 6%
On a book value perspective MS is definitely the cheaper.
On a relative basis, they move together.
Buy GS, but don't short MS? Maybe throw on SDS...
SP500 shouldn't rally significantly without a move in GS...
On a book value perspective MS is definitely the cheaper.
On a relative basis, they move together.
Buy GS, but don't short MS? Maybe throw on SDS...
SP500 shouldn't rally significantly without a move in GS...
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Why just a 1/2 % cut
why not go the full monty and do 0%?
I mean aren't we in unprecedented times...
If we're going to flood the system with US dollars, lets go all out, and get this economy jump started.
This isn't science, it's common sense, science still hasn't cured obesity, cancer, and stupid people.
I mean aren't we in unprecedented times...
If we're going to flood the system with US dollars, lets go all out, and get this economy jump started.
This isn't science, it's common sense, science still hasn't cured obesity, cancer, and stupid people.
What would happen
if in the case of government defaults, currencies don't collapse, but instead there is a property swap. Where the property, owned by the debtor nation, is nationalized and the debt is cancelled.
Like in real estate, the house is the collateral on the loan, so, I believe, in case of government default, subsidiaries of conglomerates will be held as collateral.
People may say, how can you confuse a private company with a sovereign government, and to that I would say, that company has to have holdings of some kind and if the currency collapses or business in general, what would the company be worth anyways? Besides, it would create a construction boom to rebuild infrastructure that was exported anyways. And who doesn't like construction booms?
Like in real estate, the house is the collateral on the loan, so, I believe, in case of government default, subsidiaries of conglomerates will be held as collateral.
People may say, how can you confuse a private company with a sovereign government, and to that I would say, that company has to have holdings of some kind and if the currency collapses or business in general, what would the company be worth anyways? Besides, it would create a construction boom to rebuild infrastructure that was exported anyways. And who doesn't like construction booms?
Paul Volker redux
Paul Volker has been showing up in the news of late. Now his name, at least from what I read in the Economist, is being bandied as possible Treasury Secretary in the administration.
Does that also imply rate increases?
Does that also imply rate increases?
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
GS and MS short Volkswagen, huh????
The rumor mill has it that the short squeeze that makes Porsche-Volkswagen market cap greater than Exxon involved MS and GS.
What the hell are they doing messing around in that nonsense. Stick to shorting gold mining companies. On that front, what happens if there is a short squeeze in those companies???
What the hell are they doing messing around in that nonsense. Stick to shorting gold mining companies. On that front, what happens if there is a short squeeze in those companies???
I'm buying but
the market internals are not looking too good.
I put stops at the companies 52 week lows. Or at least near them that the panic has already occurred.
Conversely, I read and heard that market pundits are waiting for that big flush out day. Value is on sale today. If the flush occurs I will buy more. And if it doesn't, I did my job.
I put stops at the companies 52 week lows. Or at least near them that the panic has already occurred.
Conversely, I read and heard that market pundits are waiting for that big flush out day. Value is on sale today. If the flush occurs I will buy more. And if it doesn't, I did my job.
LGF again
Lionsgate is in the lower end of the 6s and trading down.
Movie sales were spectacular last weekend and LGF participated in it.
This is a buy again.
PS. ID has earnings tomorrow lets see if the panic sell off ended yesterday in this bad boy.
Movie sales were spectacular last weekend and LGF participated in it.
This is a buy again.
PS. ID has earnings tomorrow lets see if the panic sell off ended yesterday in this bad boy.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Housing Bet?
Housing. 10 AM. Can you say spin?
Market should rip after whatever they report let's see.
But then market sell off into close?
Market should rip after whatever they report let's see.
But then market sell off into close?
Thankfully
financial news has very good looking reporters. It makes the day go by better, as opposed to sports announcers who are old jocks and clueless.
Like OPEC, G7 are a bit confused
The G7 last year wanted the Yen to appreciate, now they want it down.
Make up your mind, dude.
Make up your mind, dude.
Two tales to nosh on
In John Ford's film, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, the editor says "This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."
Warren Buffett said to Alice Schroeder "Whenever my version is different from somebody else's, Alice, use the less flattering version."
Warren Buffett said to Alice Schroeder "Whenever my version is different from somebody else's, Alice, use the less flattering version."
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Buffett's editorial in NYtimes
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Guess who made money off the market downturn?
"Financial media a winner during economic crisis" is the headline from usa today.com
Once again proves they are in the business to sell, not to provide.
I guess people that have missed out on all those great horror movies over the past 10 years are making up for it by reading some really scary thoughts.
Once again proves they are in the business to sell, not to provide.
I guess people that have missed out on all those great horror movies over the past 10 years are making up for it by reading some really scary thoughts.
Long lines equal fatter profits
Chipotles even in a recession will have hungry people hungering after their products.
2x Book Value...But they make profits in cash and this type of business model, as judged by the past, recession proof.
For a pare trade, Long CMG, short MCD???
2x Book Value...But they make profits in cash and this type of business model, as judged by the past, recession proof.
For a pare trade, Long CMG, short MCD???
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Book Value
Gold stocks are trading below book value. I mean the big ones, not the little ones. Does that make it a value play? Is there some hedge one can do as well?
Friday, October 24, 2008
In Toto: Mike Tyson market
When Mike Tyson lost to Buster Douglas it was unimaginable. And the way he was knocked out was totally pathetic. It has occurred today in regards to the stock market. Mike Tyson never regained his glory. I would like to think that corporations will be able to rebound from this TKO that occurred this morning.
I bought GE yesterday, that classic bellwether, talk about market timing. Ultimately, timing is in God's hands. And you are only given the power of good decisions.
The bear laid down his cards today, lets see how the bull plays his.
I bought GE yesterday, that classic bellwether, talk about market timing. Ultimately, timing is in God's hands. And you are only given the power of good decisions.
The bear laid down his cards today, lets see how the bull plays his.
No Idea why the market is down so much this morning
But when corporations are announcing large layoffs, writeoffs, and declaring bankruptcy that is the time to not panic and start buying
I'm unclear
I read that the Yen is surging but its market is in the dumps. They make money or at least save their money in Yen so even if there businesses are slow, there is tremendous appreciation in their cash holdings. Additionally, most of the Japanese companies are trading close to book value so one is not overpaying. Granted, many articles have been published that mentioned how un-shareholder friendly Japanese firms are, but that could change.
And what about AFL? The only company that I know that is US based but primary business is in Japan. They are growing their US business and probably can scoop up assets cheap with their appreciating assets. But as mentioned yesterday, their investments have tanked, so this company is breaking even at least in this market environment.
AND what about the Swiss Franc? It also was used in the carry trade. It is being unfairly punished by being lumped in with the Euro. Could Swiss Re be a good investment?
I just don't know but I do know insurance companies that stay in business and have cash in currencies that are appreciating are primed to pounce if the market at least doesn't fall out bed.
And what about AFL? The only company that I know that is US based but primary business is in Japan. They are growing their US business and probably can scoop up assets cheap with their appreciating assets. But as mentioned yesterday, their investments have tanked, so this company is breaking even at least in this market environment.
AND what about the Swiss Franc? It also was used in the carry trade. It is being unfairly punished by being lumped in with the Euro. Could Swiss Re be a good investment?
I just don't know but I do know insurance companies that stay in business and have cash in currencies that are appreciating are primed to pounce if the market at least doesn't fall out bed.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Goldman Sachs Redux
December of last year, I bought over 100 options on GS, at strike of 205. It was an attempt at an oversold market rally and an attempt at glory. Yesterday, and this is the second time this has occurred, I accidentally placed the wrong order of 50 call options on ID. The first accident was with MO. But as with the first case, I was thinking about going all out, but decided against it; yet, I did it anyways, just not consciously. So I sat by the computer and even called my friend to see if I should exit my trade. In the meantime the Dow was down only 288 points and as we talked it went south of the border. I decided to wait, currently, and the Dow dropped over 500 points and ID was down over a buck at one point.
I bought because it is trading close to its 52 week low, the CEO bought 750,000 shares at $13, the book value according to value line is 14.5, was trading at 15 before the more recent downleg in this down market, it is growing with new orders, as well as preexisting, which implies good execution on its takeovers, and there is going to be a catalyst in the earnings announcement, Oct 29. But I bought the Jan 09 options giving the company time to prove itself in this market environment. And truthfully it should rally, because cheap stocks don't remain cheap for very long.
Like last December, it is obvious the earnings will be good and it is obvious I made no money all year. Cramer mentioned buying GS was a dumb idea, and this time he didn't say ID was bad, but too speculative in this environment. But then again he was caught unaware concerning energy, finance, and just about everything and I mention it from his actions, not his words. Also, though not jealous of my friends like last year, I realized that for me to make money I need to take on risk, which I have not done and has cost me money by doing a little of this and a little of that, but nothing of merit. So there are similarities. And the last one being, I think I am bored and possibly wanted to get my heart rate up. I haven't read Cramer's thoughts in awhile and now am constantly going to his blog, just like last year and mentioning him in mine.
I would like to think I have grown as a trade/investor. But as I turn 31 today, I have doubts.
Especially since most of my options this year paid off well, but once again it was just a little of this and a little of that. It's when I make a decision that matters, do I shake.
The positives as I see them are: AGM, LGF, SRS would have returned handsome returns already if I had enough confidence in myself. But I think, ultimately, I cannot get my hands around risk. Maybe risk is a girl to me - uncontrollable. And maybe, as Tony Soprano says, "I want total control" and thereby suffer anxiety attacks.
I bought because it is trading close to its 52 week low, the CEO bought 750,000 shares at $13, the book value according to value line is 14.5, was trading at 15 before the more recent downleg in this down market, it is growing with new orders, as well as preexisting, which implies good execution on its takeovers, and there is going to be a catalyst in the earnings announcement, Oct 29. But I bought the Jan 09 options giving the company time to prove itself in this market environment. And truthfully it should rally, because cheap stocks don't remain cheap for very long.
Like last December, it is obvious the earnings will be good and it is obvious I made no money all year. Cramer mentioned buying GS was a dumb idea, and this time he didn't say ID was bad, but too speculative in this environment. But then again he was caught unaware concerning energy, finance, and just about everything and I mention it from his actions, not his words. Also, though not jealous of my friends like last year, I realized that for me to make money I need to take on risk, which I have not done and has cost me money by doing a little of this and a little of that, but nothing of merit. So there are similarities. And the last one being, I think I am bored and possibly wanted to get my heart rate up. I haven't read Cramer's thoughts in awhile and now am constantly going to his blog, just like last year and mentioning him in mine.
I would like to think I have grown as a trade/investor. But as I turn 31 today, I have doubts.
Especially since most of my options this year paid off well, but once again it was just a little of this and a little of that. It's when I make a decision that matters, do I shake.
The positives as I see them are: AGM, LGF, SRS would have returned handsome returns already if I had enough confidence in myself. But I think, ultimately, I cannot get my hands around risk. Maybe risk is a girl to me - uncontrollable. And maybe, as Tony Soprano says, "I want total control" and thereby suffer anxiety attacks.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
More margin calls
He who sells what isn't his'n
Must buy it back or go to Prison.
Daniel Drew
Got that off Jesse's Cafe Americain, a more popular blog than mine and very well versed in the works of FED.
(In reference to an officer of LGF) A company spokesperson explained that Burns had pledged the shares, years ago as collateral in a personal structured real estate loan. He reiterating that this was not Burns' decision to sell these shares. The natural comparison is to Sumner Redstone's National Amusements theater chain having to sell $233 million worth of Viacom [VIA 19.25
-0.63 (-3.17%) 
] and CBS [CBS 8.80 -0.24 (-2.65%) ] shares to cover a loan.
I guess even the wealthy got a taste of margining off assets. It sure doesn't help the common shareholder though. And what price distortions.
Must buy it back or go to Prison.
Daniel Drew
Got that off Jesse's Cafe Americain, a more popular blog than mine and very well versed in the works of FED.
(In reference to an officer of LGF) A company spokesperson explained that Burns had pledged the shares, years ago as collateral in a personal structured real estate loan. He reiterating that this was not Burns' decision to sell these shares. The natural comparison is to Sumner Redstone's National Amusements theater chain having to sell $233 million worth of Viacom [VIA 19.25
-0.63 (-3.17%) ] and CBS [CBS 8.80 -0.24 (-2.65%) ] shares to cover a loan.I guess even the wealthy got a taste of margining off assets. It sure doesn't help the common shareholder though. And what price distortions.
Kerkorian and margin call
It appears that Kerkorian isn't selling Ford because he is bearish but he got what you call an old fashioned margin call.
From Bloomberg: "Kerkorian is unwinding his Ford stake after the value of his $995 million holding shrunk by two-thirds and put his firm's gambling investments at risk.
Last week, Ford's collapsing stock price forced Kerkorian to pledge another 50 million shares of his MGM Mirage casino company to back the $600 million credit line used to buy into the second-largest U.S. automaker."
The bottom is in for autos unless there is a resumption of the great credit collapse. This is classic bottom formation. The peak for US auto was 2000 and since then they have done every financial shenanigan to stay afloat.
The price action shows the full effects of an enema. If Cerberus and Ford want out then you know it's bad, but they thought it was good a year ago, so what do they know? Things are priced for the worst, of course not for a catastrophe, but for the worse economic condition and still have an economy that ploughs ahead.
Do unto others
When the euro was over 1.5, the us stocks were trading at a big discount. Now those European companies flush with cash will have to pay up for expansion as their Euro sags. The same with the British when the pound was over 2. They may have shopped more for Tiffany products in the US, but should have shopped for quality corporations.
Now it behooves US corporations to do to Europe that they didn't do to us. Buy buy buy at a discount.
GME and BBY are two that come to mind.
Now it behooves US corporations to do to Europe that they didn't do to us. Buy buy buy at a discount.
GME and BBY are two that come to mind.
Barbie
Better than reading the Economist or hearing speaches by politicians, can the lower revenue growth of the all american girl Barbie symbolize the decline in American regard overseas?
The song that sums things up...and I cant get out of my head
The Temptations sung it and everyone else covered it...wonder why!
Each day through my window I watch her as she passes by.
I say to myself, "You're such a lucky guy."
To have a girl like her
is truly a dream come true.
Out of all of the fellas in the world
she belongs to you...
But it was just my imagination
running away with me.
It was just my imagination
running away with me...
Each day through my window I watch her as she passes by.
I say to myself, "You're such a lucky guy."
To have a girl like her
is truly a dream come true.
Out of all of the fellas in the world
she belongs to you...
But it was just my imagination
running away with me.
It was just my imagination
running away with me...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Sucking it up like a man
I respect Mr. Kerkorian. He is not afraid of making a decision and living with it. But he also is not afraid of admitting that he is wrong and shifting course.
Buying F at $8 when no one else was took nerve. Selling at the bottom took nerve as well and proves again that there MUST not be pride in this game called investing.
And just to be contrary, Ford is a buy. When Mr. Kerkorian got out of GM, I believe the company rallied 6 points. Ford could rally at least a buck.
Buying F at $8 when no one else was took nerve. Selling at the bottom took nerve as well and proves again that there MUST not be pride in this game called investing.
And just to be contrary, Ford is a buy. When Mr. Kerkorian got out of GM, I believe the company rallied 6 points. Ford could rally at least a buck.
LGF
is up today as the market is down.
Yesterday, it was waiting for this upgrade that it had to day.
Value was in the 6s, Speculation is in th7s.
Upset of course not to capture the entire move, but satisfied to make a profit.
Yesterday, it was waiting for this upgrade that it had to day.
Value was in the 6s, Speculation is in th7s.
Upset of course not to capture the entire move, but satisfied to make a profit.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Out of LGF and DWA update
LGF didnt have the blockbuster I expected but the stock didn't crater which is good news, but money may be better spent elsewhere.
DWA is bullish and HAS and MAT cannot find an uptick. Already suffering losses so am looking to close that pare trade.
DWA is bullish and HAS and MAT cannot find an uptick. Already suffering losses so am looking to close that pare trade.
Dont fight the trend...but
Sandisk this morning seems to be closing out its close relationship with Toshiba to make it a more viable takeover candidate, yet the stock is down 7% today.
What is going on. If I was trading this stock then I would say don't fight the trend. But I expect buyouts to happen.
And they are going to be receiving 1billion dollars. Doesn't that count for something?
At a current 3.26 billion market cap-1 billion cash=2.26bln market cap...
And wait that's not all...according to yahoo finance, the current cash equals the debt of the company, so one is paying 2.26bln for a company with 0 debt. But generates revenue in the billions. We'll see who wins this one.
What is going on. If I was trading this stock then I would say don't fight the trend. But I expect buyouts to happen.
And they are going to be receiving 1billion dollars. Doesn't that count for something?
At a current 3.26 billion market cap-1 billion cash=2.26bln market cap...
And wait that's not all...according to yahoo finance, the current cash equals the debt of the company, so one is paying 2.26bln for a company with 0 debt. But generates revenue in the billions. We'll see who wins this one.
The case for Altria
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akDCw.fUKYOc&refer=home
What would happen if this 13.8 billion dollar industry became legal (referring to quote above and below)? I'd say Altria would have a good chance in getting in on the action. Granted drugs are devastating, but they are even more so when they are illegal. Altria is a high state. Because if someone isn't smoking, drinking, or eating junk food they may be doing something more damaging.
We all love hollywood and sports figures, but they are above the law and flaunt it. Unfortunately, what they are flaunting are activities that are illegal in a very dangerous industry.
When nuclear power becomes accepted, trust me, our state of mind will be different and things thought unthinkable will be accepted; like Walgreen and CVS selling a pack of smokes as well as a dime bag. Can you imagine Sara Lee apple pies with hemp?
From Bloomberg:
"Mexican cartels sell $13.8 billion a year worth of marijuana, cocaine, heroin and amphetamines to U.S. drug users, according to White House figures. Mexico is the corridor for about 90 percent of the cocaine consumed in the U.S.
What would happen if this 13.8 billion dollar industry became legal (referring to quote above and below)? I'd say Altria would have a good chance in getting in on the action. Granted drugs are devastating, but they are even more so when they are illegal. Altria is a high state. Because if someone isn't smoking, drinking, or eating junk food they may be doing something more damaging.
We all love hollywood and sports figures, but they are above the law and flaunt it. Unfortunately, what they are flaunting are activities that are illegal in a very dangerous industry.
When nuclear power becomes accepted, trust me, our state of mind will be different and things thought unthinkable will be accepted; like Walgreen and CVS selling a pack of smokes as well as a dime bag. Can you imagine Sara Lee apple pies with hemp?
From Bloomberg:
"Mexican cartels sell $13.8 billion a year worth of marijuana, cocaine, heroin and amphetamines to U.S. drug users, according to White House figures. Mexico is the corridor for about 90 percent of the cocaine consumed in the U.S.
Buy Oil...????
I woke up and saw this headline:
"OPEC Plans Supply Cut as Crude Oil Heads Toward $50"
Wasn't it the other day when we thought oil was going to $200.
Completely reversed now. This headline is fear induced. And it also shows...that OPEC of the headlines have no clue or it appears no control over the price of crude.
Reading the text of the article by Grant Smith and Margot Habiby
What we haven't slid into a recession, yet we are experiencing the worst financial crisis since the 30s? I'm confused. I guess that type of analysis is what caused Merrill to be bought out and sounds more like a government controlled Goldman than an independent one.
Who in their right mind is paying $500 dollars for option 50% out of the money. Where were they from 140, 120,105,90,80???? I'd say this article, OPEC, options buyers are late to the party.
Now I was two days delayed when the top fell out of bed in oil. The reverse could be happening now.
But I don't know if it will retest old highs but I believe the price of oil will stay range bound.
"OPEC Plans Supply Cut as Crude Oil Heads Toward $50"
Wasn't it the other day when we thought oil was going to $200.
Completely reversed now. This headline is fear induced. And it also shows...that OPEC of the headlines have no clue or it appears no control over the price of crude.
Reading the text of the article by Grant Smith and Margot Habiby
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, plans to cut output for the first time in almost two years (If they have so much control as the headlines touted for the past couple of years how come it crashed so suddenly?) as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s (the other day the market had no downside) sends crude toward $50 a barrel.
What we haven't slid into a recession, yet we are experiencing the worst financial crisis since the 30s? I'm confused. I guess that type of analysis is what caused Merrill to be bought out and sounds more like a government controlled Goldman than an independent one.
Who in their right mind is paying $500 dollars for option 50% out of the money. Where were they from 140, 120,105,90,80???? I'd say this article, OPEC, options buyers are late to the party.
Now I was two days delayed when the top fell out of bed in oil. The reverse could be happening now.
But I don't know if it will retest old highs but I believe the price of oil will stay range bound.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Outlaw Josie Wales
Josey Wales: Now remember, things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is.
Hero Part II
"Discretion is
the better part of valor."
That is exactly the phrase that you don't hear a lot of when referring to a hero. I got that quote from a wonderful statistical service, Lowrys.
But it is actually from
the better part of valor."
That is exactly the phrase that you don't hear a lot of when referring to a hero. I got that quote from a wonderful statistical service, Lowrys.
But it is actually from
Shakespeare, in Henry IV, Part One, 1596:
Falstaff: 'The better part of valour is discretion; in the which better part I have saved my life.'
But of course the man saying it wasn't exactly a hero.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Warren Buffett says "
if you wait for the robins, spring will be over,''
But he didn't say what he was buying which reaffirms two things: if you like his strategy buy his company or 2) buy what his mentor, Benjamin Graham, teaches in the Intelligent Investor.
Ultimately, what Graham taught and Buffet followed is that you buy companies that have products that are fundamental to our society and buy them at a discount, ie. when no one wants them.
The SP500 and DJIA are good indicators of the best companies at beaten down prices.
But he didn't say what he was buying which reaffirms two things: if you like his strategy buy his company or 2) buy what his mentor, Benjamin Graham, teaches in the Intelligent Investor.
Ultimately, what Graham taught and Buffet followed is that you buy companies that have products that are fundamental to our society and buy them at a discount, ie. when no one wants them.
The SP500 and DJIA are good indicators of the best companies at beaten down prices.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Alcoa
I hate it that Stan O'Neal from the defunct Merril is a board member, but Paul O'Neil was the CEO, and I would like to think management is strong in this 100 year institution.
Trading at cyclical lows. Has the historic values one looks for in a Dog of the Dow and what Dow Theorists espouse, value.
I think part of the sell off has to do with speculators that bought on buy out expectations. And the horrible future expectations of manufacturing. But Alcoa has survived all the recessions and depressions of the 20th century so should again. Because they create something people want.
If you look on a periphery basis, it has similar value to Freeport McMoran, without the gold.
Trading at cyclical lows. Has the historic values one looks for in a Dog of the Dow and what Dow Theorists espouse, value.
I think part of the sell off has to do with speculators that bought on buy out expectations. And the horrible future expectations of manufacturing. But Alcoa has survived all the recessions and depressions of the 20th century so should again. Because they create something people want.
If you look on a periphery basis, it has similar value to Freeport McMoran, without the gold.
Owens Illinois
looks very cheap and I own some. Though I had to succomb and read that Cramer can't get behind this one. I don't care what he has to say, but he does have an allure. But I own it because from my understanding they are the kings of glassware, are paying down debt, and consolidating their industry. The stock has gone a phenomenal tear until the 50% sell off.
They have less than a 3PE which of course means they aren't going to make profits like last year, but I am expecting profits! If of course they don't have any than I would say it's going back to its secular low.
They have less than a 3PE which of course means they aren't going to make profits like last year, but I am expecting profits! If of course they don't have any than I would say it's going back to its secular low.
Make good decisions and live with them
The only thing to do ultimately is make a decision and live with it. Making no decision is not an option so before making one, think about where that decision will lead. You'll probably be wrong most of the time but at least you have the correct method of doing things when you are in the right place at the right time.
A Hero
First off, you don't need to be a hero in the stock market. Secondly, the definition of hero I am using currently is what I term the classical hero, not the one in comic books. It is the classical one that David Mamet, the famous screenwriter and playwright, defines which can be adapted to any endeavour in life. I found this on the RedBelt DVD, a movie highly rewarding.
Interviewer asks: "Is Mike Terry a hero because he refuses to be conned and because he can't be conned?"
David Mamet: "Everybody can be conned. There's nobody here who can't be conned because we're all human...and because we all have desires...and we all have secret lusts and passions...and greeds and envies and regrets and ambition...Everybody can be conned. So what makes a person a hero is not that he can't be conned...but that he has the capacity to overcome...his human weaknesses...in order to serve some higher ideal.
Interviewer asks: "Is Mike Terry a hero because he refuses to be conned and because he can't be conned?"
David Mamet: "Everybody can be conned. There's nobody here who can't be conned because we're all human...and because we all have desires...and we all have secret lusts and passions...and greeds and envies and regrets and ambition...Everybody can be conned. So what makes a person a hero is not that he can't be conned...but that he has the capacity to overcome...his human weaknesses...in order to serve some higher ideal.
A quote from Bernard Baruch taken from Le Metropole website
"Gold has worked from Alexander's time .... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory." … Bernard Baruch
Which is why even if gold that one own plummets in value, you still own it, someday these buggers go up in value as we have seen after a 15 years hiatus.
Which is why even if gold that one own plummets in value, you still own it, someday these buggers go up in value as we have seen after a 15 years hiatus.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Vote Perot
by buying shares in his company.
I'd say in this market environment you want shares of companies that have strong support by management or founders through share ownership.
At least this way they are aligned with your interests to not lose money and try to make a few bucks in this market environment.
Cash rich company with a product in demand.
I'd say in this market environment you want shares of companies that have strong support by management or founders through share ownership.
At least this way they are aligned with your interests to not lose money and try to make a few bucks in this market environment.
Cash rich company with a product in demand.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
I mean this isn't scientific or anything but
7 eleven is wildly popular in Thailand.
The local 7 elevenin Ohio that is now UDF sells Krispy Kreme.
You never know what crazy fad or trend will be served up overseas.
Krispy Kreme is trading close to book value, but not at potential.
Yes, there is competition with the likes of stale donuted DunkinDonuts, though the coffee is good, and worst coffee and donut combo Tim Horton's. I'd say they have a fighting chance.
My only problem with KKD is that I don't care for their coffee.
The local 7 elevenin Ohio that is now UDF sells Krispy Kreme.
You never know what crazy fad or trend will be served up overseas.
Krispy Kreme is trading close to book value, but not at potential.
Yes, there is competition with the likes of stale donuted DunkinDonuts, though the coffee is good, and worst coffee and donut combo Tim Horton's. I'd say they have a fighting chance.
My only problem with KKD is that I don't care for their coffee.
If markets are a barometer
than the sell off wasn't due to banking crises, forced liquidation, mark to market losses, no it has to do with the simple fact bond rates are going higher which thereby implies lower PEs for corporations.
In 1982, bond rates were heading lower. Stocks were bound for stratopheric heights. The circle is reversing and once again implies, IYR, has nowhere to go but down.
In 1982, bond rates were heading lower. Stocks were bound for stratopheric heights. The circle is reversing and once again implies, IYR, has nowhere to go but down.
Dreamwork and a pare trade
Dreamworks has a head and shoulder bottom formation. I have my doubts, but still, it didn't reach a 52 weak low in the recent carnage. I just don't think SKG are in it for shareholder value. Paul Allen is dumping shares left and right.
I believe a better way to play this and it is gambling. Long LGF, which has 15% shareholder as mentioned before, that looks out for his investments. And long Mattel or Hasbro, or both for that matter, who have a record of looking out for shareholder value as well as profiting from hollywood and now video games.
FYI, DWA and HAS were upgraded.
So Long LGF,HAS,MAT/ Short DWA
I believe a better way to play this and it is gambling. Long LGF, which has 15% shareholder as mentioned before, that looks out for his investments. And long Mattel or Hasbro, or both for that matter, who have a record of looking out for shareholder value as well as profiting from hollywood and now video games.
FYI, DWA and HAS were upgraded.
So Long LGF,HAS,MAT/ Short DWA
Monday, October 13, 2008
Winston Churchill
When he was basically thrown out of office after a lifetime in politics and surviving the War, he didn't just resign himself to old age, he took the time to write about history.
I guess when markets are behaving like this and throwing out what has worked, like buying value, it is time to reflect and wait for the next opportunity.
I guess when markets are behaving like this and throwing out what has worked, like buying value, it is time to reflect and wait for the next opportunity.
Marty Whitman on government and the "free" markets taken from Wikipedia
He argues, in particular, for the value of government-provided credit and of carefully crafted tax laws.[2] Further, Whitman argues (explicitly against Hayek) that "a free market situation is probably also doomed to failure if there exist control persons who are not subject to external disciplines imposed by various forces over and above competition." The lack of these disciplines, says Whitman, lead to "1. Very exorbitant levels of executive compensation… 2. Poorly financed businesses with strong prospects for money defaults on credit instruments… 3. Speculative bubbles… 4. Tendency for industry competition to evolve into monopolies and oligopolies… 5. Corruption." For all of these he provides recent examples from the U.S. economy, which he considers to be in some respects under-regulated,[3], although in other respects over-regulated (he is generally opposed to Sarbanes-Oxley ).[4]
Sunday, October 12, 2008
If I know you Mr. Anonymous let me know
Currently mostly friends read my blog so am interested how you found out about it since you wrote to me twice.
Mr. Anonymous wants clarification on LGF
LOS ANGELES, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Steinberg Asset Management LLC said on Thursday it filed an early warning report with Canadian securities regulators confirming its control over nearly 15 percent of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
Steinberg now owns some 17.3 million shares, or 14.72 percent, of common shares in Lions Gate, maker of the "Saw" horror movie franchise and cable TV shows such as "Weeds" and "Mad Men."
Steinberg said it purchased the shares for various separately managed accounts and has no intention of influencing the management or the direction of the U.S. independent television and movie studio. (Reporting by Gina Keating, editing by Richard Chang)
The truth is
I'm scared. Just what the hell will the future behold. Granted that is the beauty of life. But I read a lot and I never planned, who does, to live in such turbulent times. Yes, that is when great leaders are found, but also tyrants.
The fact remains that when ones savings and job opportunities are toyed with who is say how the public in general will react. I'd say more like a wild bear.
I'm scared but I want to believe things will work its way around. I just have to do my part. And what part might that be? See that is the dilemma I have which I assume others do as well.
Like that damn poem says, first they came for someone else and I didn't speak up...then the second...then the third...then they came for me, but no one was there to speak up.
SPEAK UP. But respectfully.
The fact remains that when ones savings and job opportunities are toyed with who is say how the public in general will react. I'd say more like a wild bear.
I'm scared but I want to believe things will work its way around. I just have to do my part. And what part might that be? See that is the dilemma I have which I assume others do as well.
Like that damn poem says, first they came for someone else and I didn't speak up...then the second...then the third...then they came for me, but no one was there to speak up.
SPEAK UP. But respectfully.
One more SWEET idea
Starbux has still been trying to make inroads in the Asian world to drink coffee. But what if that title will go to Krispy Kreme as it teaches the Asian nations to have a donut or two; instead of a bowl of udon or rice.
A thought. And no, I don't know if udon is served in China. But these are notions...
A thought. And no, I don't know if udon is served in China. But these are notions...
2004 Redux. LGF.
BUY Lions Gate Entertainment.
In 2004, Fahrenheit 911 came out and boosted Lionsgate profile as well as its profits. But didn't alter the course of the presidency.
In 2008, W, the story of George Bush's life, is coming out by Oliver Stone. It should be a hit, like JFK was, and Alexander wasn't. The stock nosedived a buck on Friday. Should hit 7-9 bucks on a hit. And will it help alter the course of our voting as well?
Also, the producer of Saw, who saw his 1 million dollar movie gross over 100 million dollars, took a 15% stake in the company. I would say, as my first business teacher taught, grab that lucky son of a gun's coat tail because some of that luck may rub off.
In 2004, Fahrenheit 911 came out and boosted Lionsgate profile as well as its profits. But didn't alter the course of the presidency.
In 2008, W, the story of George Bush's life, is coming out by Oliver Stone. It should be a hit, like JFK was, and Alexander wasn't. The stock nosedived a buck on Friday. Should hit 7-9 bucks on a hit. And will it help alter the course of our voting as well?
Also, the producer of Saw, who saw his 1 million dollar movie gross over 100 million dollars, took a 15% stake in the company. I would say, as my first business teacher taught, grab that lucky son of a gun's coat tail because some of that luck may rub off.
Internet Crystal Ball
My internet was down and I had no idea how the market did from Friday afternoon till Sunday afternoon...I didn't miss anything and in fact enjoyed not having instantaneous information.
Instantaneous information leads to valuations that may have taken longer to be valued at such.
Additionally, I think we, or at least myself, treat the internet as a teacher, waiting to tell me what to do next.
Remember there's a man behind this internet and he is trying to sell you some ointment.
THINK FOR YOURSELF!
Instantaneous information leads to valuations that may have taken longer to be valued at such.
Additionally, I think we, or at least myself, treat the internet as a teacher, waiting to tell me what to do next.
Remember there's a man behind this internet and he is trying to sell you some ointment.
THINK FOR YOURSELF!
Friday, October 10, 2008
Today is Ugly , but isn't there a show called Ugly Betty
And she is actually pretty.
We'll see.
I define pretty as an opportunity to buy.
We'll see.
I define pretty as an opportunity to buy.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
The first 1000 point up move
Today was Yom Kippur for the Jewish people. And most celebrate it by fasting and not trading stocks. It does effect the market or that is what people say by the light volume which wasn't seen today.
I would say today was a fake out on the downside that will be well compensated on the drastic move up.
Things are priced for severe deflation, bankruptcies, and complete breakdown of economic progress. It may happen, God forbid, but there will be a rally to put some risk back to the short sellers.
Also today was the end on the ban to short financials. Discrepencies.
I would say today was a fake out on the downside that will be well compensated on the drastic move up.
Things are priced for severe deflation, bankruptcies, and complete breakdown of economic progress. It may happen, God forbid, but there will be a rally to put some risk back to the short sellers.
Also today was the end on the ban to short financials. Discrepencies.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Market Bottoms
Buying in a panic is like Boris Yeltsin completely sloused standing in front of those mighty Russian tanks.
But you know what that was the end of communism.
But you know what that was the end of communism.
Nisource should rally,and a hedge
on the market bounce that should occur. It is oversold, pays a fat dividend, and may have payment relief the state.
One reason it hasn't held up well is a pending sale of some of their assets. Yahoo notes: "Unitil of Hampton, N.H., a utility holding company with 115,000 customers in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, is buying both Northern Utilities and Granite State Gas Transmission from NiSource Inc. for $160 million. Unitil hopes to close the deal next month."
Technically, this could be the capitulation moment. This is one utility that may not be overpriced.
and ESS and ELS are two REITs that haven't, in my opinion, sold off enough.
Good hedge.
One reason it hasn't held up well is a pending sale of some of their assets. Yahoo notes: "Unitil of Hampton, N.H., a utility holding company with 115,000 customers in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, is buying both Northern Utilities and Granite State Gas Transmission from NiSource Inc. for $160 million. Unitil hopes to close the deal next month."
Technically, this could be the capitulation moment. This is one utility that may not be overpriced.
and ESS and ELS are two REITs that haven't, in my opinion, sold off enough.
Good hedge.
IOSCO
As I read and study for the CFA exam, the underlying fundamentals and movements of the market seem to make sense, but also the massive fraud perpetuated by individuals.
The IOSCO, International Organization of Securities Commissions, has three goals:
1) protecting investors
2) ensuring that markets are fair, efficient, and transparent; and
3) reducing systematic risk
It has 181 members that regulate more than 90% of the world's financial capital markets. The IOSCO has succeeded, humbly in my opinion, on all three counts. And I'm sure if you talk to the heads of this institution they believe this canard.
WHEN MONEY IS INVOLVED THE ONLY THING THAT WILL PREVENT FRAUD IS REPEAT BUSINESS, REPUTATION, AND BEING THROWN IN JAIL.
Lehman lost business but held face, they lost their reputation at the end and were shocked, and now they (Dick Fuld) is talking to congress like he is immune from jail. Now if this was in Saudi Arabia someone would be losing body parts. Maybe that will prevent malfeasance, but no, we have the death penalty, but does it prevent murder?
So my conclusion is what it says at the end of Eccliasastes, "Fear God."
And maybe that is what we should change the inscription on the dollar bill to. From Trust in God, to Fear God.
Our trust has been shattered but not our fear. Fear is a good thing sometimes, like when it keeps men honest.
The IOSCO, International Organization of Securities Commissions, has three goals:
1) protecting investors
2) ensuring that markets are fair, efficient, and transparent; and
3) reducing systematic risk
It has 181 members that regulate more than 90% of the world's financial capital markets. The IOSCO has succeeded, humbly in my opinion, on all three counts. And I'm sure if you talk to the heads of this institution they believe this canard.
WHEN MONEY IS INVOLVED THE ONLY THING THAT WILL PREVENT FRAUD IS REPEAT BUSINESS, REPUTATION, AND BEING THROWN IN JAIL.
Lehman lost business but held face, they lost their reputation at the end and were shocked, and now they (Dick Fuld) is talking to congress like he is immune from jail. Now if this was in Saudi Arabia someone would be losing body parts. Maybe that will prevent malfeasance, but no, we have the death penalty, but does it prevent murder?
So my conclusion is what it says at the end of Eccliasastes, "Fear God."
And maybe that is what we should change the inscription on the dollar bill to. From Trust in God, to Fear God.
Our trust has been shattered but not our fear. Fear is a good thing sometimes, like when it keeps men honest.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Why Rex Stores--RSC is a buy if you like solar
I WOULD BUY RSC, REX, THEN...
1) BELOW A REAL, TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE
2) COMMODITY COSTS HAVE LOWERED WHICH WILL MAKE ETHANOL PROFITABLE
3) YOU HAVE A MAN, MR ROSE, WHO HAS A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF HIS NET WORTH IN THE COMPANY
4) HE IS KNOWLEDGABLE IN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AND CASH>DEBT, HE CAN OPERATE
5) ADDITIONALLY, HIS ELECTRONIC STORES MAKE MONEY, IF NOT HE SHUTS THEM DOWN!
6) THE CONGRESS IS NOT GOING TO GET RID OF ETHANOL DUE TO RECESSION OVERTONES
7) YOU AND I HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT WHICH TECHNOLOGY WILL WORK...ALSO THEIR PROFITS ARE VERY WOOLY...HIT AND MISS...
or BUY UTILITIES THAT WILL PROFIT FROM SOLAR...
or CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES...
but a reminder: NUCLEAR WILL PROVIDE JOBS, NOT SOLAR, AND THIS GENERATION NEEDS JOBS. THOUGH I COULD BE WRONG. EVEN THE KAHN BROTHERS OWN USU, NOT AS FAR AS I KNOW, SOLAR NAMES.
BUT ENERGY CONVERSION FASCINATES ME BECAUSE IT IS A COMPANY, LIKE MOTOROLA USED TO BE, THAT COMES UP WITH INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS. THEIR PROFITS ARE A BIT SPORADIC, BUT AS I WRITE THIS ADDENDUM, IT COMES TO MIND THEY HAVE CONVERTIBLES PAYING ABOUT 3%, THAT WAY AT LEAST YOU GET PAID A LITTLE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THEY HIT PAY DIR. YES, THEY ARE INTO SOLAR BIG TIME, BUT THEY HAVE WHAT SOME HAVE TERMED, A MODERN DAY EDISON AT THE HELM. OF COURSE, THAT COULD BE HYPE...OR NOT.
1) BELOW A REAL, TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE
2) COMMODITY COSTS HAVE LOWERED WHICH WILL MAKE ETHANOL PROFITABLE
3) YOU HAVE A MAN, MR ROSE, WHO HAS A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF HIS NET WORTH IN THE COMPANY
4) HE IS KNOWLEDGABLE IN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AND CASH>DEBT, HE CAN OPERATE
5) ADDITIONALLY, HIS ELECTRONIC STORES MAKE MONEY, IF NOT HE SHUTS THEM DOWN!
6) THE CONGRESS IS NOT GOING TO GET RID OF ETHANOL DUE TO RECESSION OVERTONES
7) YOU AND I HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT WHICH TECHNOLOGY WILL WORK...ALSO THEIR PROFITS ARE VERY WOOLY...HIT AND MISS...
or BUY UTILITIES THAT WILL PROFIT FROM SOLAR...
or CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES...
but a reminder: NUCLEAR WILL PROVIDE JOBS, NOT SOLAR, AND THIS GENERATION NEEDS JOBS. THOUGH I COULD BE WRONG. EVEN THE KAHN BROTHERS OWN USU, NOT AS FAR AS I KNOW, SOLAR NAMES.
BUT ENERGY CONVERSION FASCINATES ME BECAUSE IT IS A COMPANY, LIKE MOTOROLA USED TO BE, THAT COMES UP WITH INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS. THEIR PROFITS ARE A BIT SPORADIC, BUT AS I WRITE THIS ADDENDUM, IT COMES TO MIND THEY HAVE CONVERTIBLES PAYING ABOUT 3%, THAT WAY AT LEAST YOU GET PAID A LITTLE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THEY HIT PAY DIR. YES, THEY ARE INTO SOLAR BIG TIME, BUT THEY HAVE WHAT SOME HAVE TERMED, A MODERN DAY EDISON AT THE HELM. OF COURSE, THAT COULD BE HYPE...OR NOT.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
So this tells me that AFL appears to be a Yen play
This is quoted directly from the 2007 Annual Report:
"Aflac Japan’s premiums and most of its investment income are
received in yen. Claims and expenses are paid in yen, and we
primarily purchase yen-denominated assets to support yendenominated
policy liabilities. These and other yendenominated
financial statement items are translated into
dollars for financial reporting purposes. We translate Aflac
Japan’s yen-denominated income statement into dollars using
an average exchange rate for the reporting period, and we
translate its yen-denominated balance sheet using the
exchange rate at the end of the period. However, it is
important to distinguish between translating and converting
foreign currency. Except for a limited number of transactions,
we do not actually convert yen into dollars.
Due to the size of Aflac Japan, where our functional currency
is the Japanese yen, fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange
rate can have a significant effect on our reported results. In
periods when the yen weakens, translating yen into dollars
results in fewer dollars being reported. When the yen
strengthens, translating yen into dollars results in more dollars
being reported. Consequently, yen weakening has the effect of
suppressing current year results in relation to the prior year,
while yen strengthening has the effect of magnifying current
year results in relation to the prior year. As a result, we view
foreign currency translation as a financial reporting issue for
Aflac and not an economic event to our Company or
shareholders. Because changes in exchange rates distort the
growth rates of our operations, management evaluates Aflac’s
financial performance, excluding the impact of foreign
currency translation."
"Aflac Japan’s premiums and most of its investment income are
received in yen. Claims and expenses are paid in yen, and we
primarily purchase yen-denominated assets to support yendenominated
policy liabilities. These and other yendenominated
financial statement items are translated into
dollars for financial reporting purposes. We translate Aflac
Japan’s yen-denominated income statement into dollars using
an average exchange rate for the reporting period, and we
translate its yen-denominated balance sheet using the
exchange rate at the end of the period. However, it is
important to distinguish between translating and converting
foreign currency. Except for a limited number of transactions,
we do not actually convert yen into dollars.
Due to the size of Aflac Japan, where our functional currency
is the Japanese yen, fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange
rate can have a significant effect on our reported results. In
periods when the yen weakens, translating yen into dollars
results in fewer dollars being reported. When the yen
strengthens, translating yen into dollars results in more dollars
being reported. Consequently, yen weakening has the effect of
suppressing current year results in relation to the prior year,
while yen strengthening has the effect of magnifying current
year results in relation to the prior year. As a result, we view
foreign currency translation as a financial reporting issue for
Aflac and not an economic event to our Company or
shareholders. Because changes in exchange rates distort the
growth rates of our operations, management evaluates Aflac’s
financial performance, excluding the impact of foreign
currency translation."
If you're bullish the Japanes Yen and want
to be a savvy investor then I think buying Aflac is your man.
Now I write this as I am studying this company so these are whims and notions.
But the way I understand it is that Aflac derives the majority of its business in Japan and not the credit ridden US. And additionally the way I understand it the carry trade is still not unwound. So besides the fact it is a solid company with a PE of 14 which I will assume is valued at its growth rate then the fact that possibly the Yen can appreciate 10-20% should really help Aflac's bottom line.
Unless of course they were borrowing Yen as well and levering up so need to study but it looks interesting.
Now I write this as I am studying this company so these are whims and notions.
But the way I understand it is that Aflac derives the majority of its business in Japan and not the credit ridden US. And additionally the way I understand it the carry trade is still not unwound. So besides the fact it is a solid company with a PE of 14 which I will assume is valued at its growth rate then the fact that possibly the Yen can appreciate 10-20% should really help Aflac's bottom line.
Unless of course they were borrowing Yen as well and levering up so need to study but it looks interesting.
Dirty Harry or Dirty "SP"
In his second movie, as "Dirty" Harry Callahan, Clint Eastwood with the assistance of John Milius serve up some thought provoking dialogue which helps serve up some thought to the problems and solutions plaguing us, economically wise.
Briggs, played by Hal Holbrook, is Harry's superior and seemingly is against violence, but as the plot unfolds we discover he is the leader of what Harry terms a "death brigade, like they had in Brazil" in the police force. They want Harry to join them, due to his loose interpretation of the law, but he refuses.
Harry; "I have upheld the law."
Briggs: "What the hell do you know about the law? You're a great cop Harry. You had a chance to join the team, but you'd rather stick to the system."
Harry: "Briggs, I hate the goddamm system. But until someone comes along with some change that makes sens. I'll stick with it."
At the end of movie, Briggs is shockingly alive and drives off, leaving Harry alive, to indict him on false charges. But Harry leaves Briggs with an explosive that was meant for Harry. As the car explodes, Harry comments: "Mans got to know his own limits."
There is something fundamental in the way business is run and the same goes for governments. Breaking the unwritten rule of nature may last awhile, but eventually it reverts back to the mean.
Or as the Talmud states: "Who is the happy man? The one that is satisfied."
Briggs, played by Hal Holbrook, is Harry's superior and seemingly is against violence, but as the plot unfolds we discover he is the leader of what Harry terms a "death brigade, like they had in Brazil" in the police force. They want Harry to join them, due to his loose interpretation of the law, but he refuses.
Harry; "I have upheld the law."
Briggs: "What the hell do you know about the law? You're a great cop Harry. You had a chance to join the team, but you'd rather stick to the system."
Harry: "Briggs, I hate the goddamm system. But until someone comes along with some change that makes sens. I'll stick with it."
At the end of movie, Briggs is shockingly alive and drives off, leaving Harry alive, to indict him on false charges. But Harry leaves Briggs with an explosive that was meant for Harry. As the car explodes, Harry comments: "Mans got to know his own limits."
There is something fundamental in the way business is run and the same goes for governments. Breaking the unwritten rule of nature may last awhile, but eventually it reverts back to the mean.
Or as the Talmud states: "Who is the happy man? The one that is satisfied."
Friday, October 3, 2008
You know
something I always get myself in a ringer over is seeing something cheap or expensive and saying it's a good company or this company is rotten to the core and I precede to slap on a few shares. But I have NO expectation of where and when it will go in my predicted way.
I think this is crucial to investment success which I haven't had this year, currently. Of course, I'm in the boat like many, but I believe I saw this coming and DID nothing about it. Truly disgusted.
But that is what makes a man, pick himself up and ask for forgiveness. And never make the same mistakes again!
I think this is crucial to investment success which I haven't had this year, currently. Of course, I'm in the boat like many, but I believe I saw this coming and DID nothing about it. Truly disgusted.
But that is what makes a man, pick himself up and ask for forgiveness. And never make the same mistakes again!
Thursday, October 2, 2008
This says it all...of course he bets in the billions
But Buffett said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday that if Congress doesn't approve the bailout plan soon, then "I will have done some dumb things."
Semiconductor Buyouts...IGNORE THE CRITICS
ATML offered at 5.
SNDK at 25.
Can RMBS be next or AMKR or TSRA or even CY (after spinoff)
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IS AT HAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SNDK at 25.
Can RMBS be next or AMKR or TSRA or even CY (after spinoff)
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IS AT HAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
The important thing
is not to get discouraged.
From the President to Mr. Buffett to Sonic Burger, things aren't looking to good. And what has worked in the past, doesn't. That doesn't mean anything. It means to reflect on the past, but to react to the present.
And when you make a decision, don't look back. Be proud that you were given the opportunity to make decisions.
I'm saying these thoughts because I am pissed off that I missed a 50% opportunity.
And a 100% opportunity in NCC as well.
From the President to Mr. Buffett to Sonic Burger, things aren't looking to good. And what has worked in the past, doesn't. That doesn't mean anything. It means to reflect on the past, but to react to the present.
And when you make a decision, don't look back. Be proud that you were given the opportunity to make decisions.
I'm saying these thoughts because I am pissed off that I missed a 50% opportunity.
And a 100% opportunity in NCC as well.
Long XLU/ Short IYR ????????
IYR seems to stay at its 52-high while all around it, sector related companies can't keep their head above water. IYR, is the DJ commercial real estate etf, and I wonder if shareholders are delusional.
My biggest concern is that reits need to give back, according to my study, 90% of profits. This motivates them to take on more debt to expand and not conserve in a downturn market. But isn't there a liquidity crunch. If one says that the high end commercial reit is doing well then why is BID TIF SKS doing lousy?
So are they the market leaders in the inevitable rally coming up? Or are people holding on to the last bit of good news in their portfolio.
I mean even the utilities are selling off and they are good dividend payers, selling something that everyone needs, and, additionally, there is expectation for energy growth over the course of time.
Yet do we expect to see the demand that we have had for another shopping mall or strip center?
My biggest concern is that reits need to give back, according to my study, 90% of profits. This motivates them to take on more debt to expand and not conserve in a downturn market. But isn't there a liquidity crunch. If one says that the high end commercial reit is doing well then why is BID TIF SKS doing lousy?
So are they the market leaders in the inevitable rally coming up? Or are people holding on to the last bit of good news in their portfolio.
I mean even the utilities are selling off and they are good dividend payers, selling something that everyone needs, and, additionally, there is expectation for energy growth over the course of time.
Yet do we expect to see the demand that we have had for another shopping mall or strip center?
AGM
is up 57% and my friend averaged down to make mouth watering profits. While I was on the sidelines, eating a 23% loss.
Once again it shows that you have to man up to make profits in the market.
But I did buy today. Because my intention was and is capturing the long term trend. Short term uncertainty and unfamiliarity with the margin calls on a company like this made me want to stay on the sidelines until there was clarity in the market.
Once again it shows that you have to man up to make profits in the market.
But I did buy today. Because my intention was and is capturing the long term trend. Short term uncertainty and unfamiliarity with the margin calls on a company like this made me want to stay on the sidelines until there was clarity in the market.
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