Monday, March 14, 2011

Also, concerning nuclear power

1) BP's oil disaster devastated an entire ocean. The drillers are back in operation.
2) Two nuclear bombs on Japan didn't stop the nuclear industry
3) Chernobyl with outdated technology, incompetent Russian management and regional devastation didn't stop the industry.
4) Natural gas plant would have had a devastating impact by the tsunami

Nuclear Disaster? We have been here before

Japan is currently suffering a nuclear meltdown. This, of course, would appear to the world a test case for the viability of the industry.

Please realize that a few years ago another nuclear plant "disaster" happened in Japan when radioactive coolant leaked. No one died or was effected.

Again, a couple hundred are being tested for high radioactive levels - that's it. No one died.

If Japan had a natural gas or coal plant the explosions and devastation would be great for the global news cycle.

Nuclear and the corresponding mining industry are going to be on sale today and it may be the last time in our generation that this occurs.

Don't be afraid.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Mwana Africa - one of the cheapest miners out there

Mwana Africa is primarily located in Zimbabwe which is the only reason the stock is trading lower than the price that management and institutional investors paid into the company.

Why? Because the Zimbabwe government publicly announced partial nationalization of the countries resources. Should that be a big surprise after so many years of the current regime there?

I went to Mwana's website and here is a behind the napkin calculation on what an investor should be expecting concerning a return.


Gold



1) Lets says the Zimbabwe government takes a 60/40 split.

2) And the cost of extracting gold is $800/oz

3) Lets say gold stabilizes at 1100



= 300/oz profit.



4) They expect a minimum of 30,000oz per year.



So the net would be 9,000,000

The net to shareholder would be 3.6m



Just on Gold possession, that is 50m market cap/ 3.5 m = 14.3 PE



Not bad.



Nickel



1) Up to 7,000t pa Ni in concentrate

2) Cost of production approx. $6,000 / t Ni in concentrate

3) Ni is around 24,000 per ton

4) Lets say the concentrate is the low 0.40% as mentioned in presentation, Pure Nickel is 28 tons for the year



28 tons x 24,000= $672,000

Minus expense of $42,000

And comes out to $630,000



The Stakeholders get 40%, or $252,000



Now the P/E is lowered to 50 market cap/3.72 = 13.44



That's a 7.44% return minimum



And that is after the Zimbabwe government won't fully nationalize its mineral assets.

What if previous agreements will be honored?