Thursday, March 27, 2008

MedicalStocks?

Here are some speculative medical stocks that may give some bang for buck.
1. GIVN, is having some growth pains
2. CAJ, yes Japanese behemoth, but has imaging technology similar to GIVN. Won't spike like the others but the Japanese market is down. So getting value here.
3. RMTI, showed up on filter
4. QTXB, heard from a friend who heard it from...you get the picture
5. ORMP, relates to oral dose of insulin for diabetes patients. A tremendous technology.

The problem with Rambus

I think semi stocks are going to rally eventually and investors are betting big on Rambus. But my problem is their business model: licensing out their patents.

Ultimately, the manufacturer will not pay for the patents which they didn't with Rambus. On a macro level, that is what I fear with outsourcing so much of our work overseas.

You can enforce only so much and when you do it takes time to get a non binding ruling which can be appealed.

Rambus lawsuit was in 2000, it is now 2007. And even still it's not settled. Of course, in stock market logic it is, up 38% yesterday.

Managing a Portfolio 21st Century

Even with the VIX so high, I would say that buying options far in the future on a conservative basis may offer higher yields and a safety of margin than tying up capital in this very ugly market.

The only capital one should outright purchase are dogs in this brutal market selloff and buying cheap puts in case of bankruptcy. I noticed that the stock price plus puts are still cheaper than the underlying business that may improve, be bought out, do nothing, or go broke.

So one must weigh the odds currently.

LIKE ABH, a company teetering on bankruptcy. The stock was at $4. Now at around $11. So that is a gain of $7. If one bought the $5 Put 2009 for around $4, one could have been up (7-4) $3 a share and it is still cheap. SmithBarney has a price target of $35. We'll see about that but that is my work in progress which helped with CFC 2009 call options.

Monday, March 24, 2008

XMSR booyah!

So check one for buyouts.

And yet XMSR is still trading below its 52 week high.
This stock gets no respect yet the product is quite enjoyable.
It's a buy.

And I believe should be bought on any dips like we had with profit takers later in the day.

Ummm, concerning ROIAK, their market cap is 150 million

The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $150 million of Radio One's Class A and Class D common stock through December 31, 2009.

So that ultimately means this company is looking to go private, I think.

Roiak this!

President Hears a Who

What will a new president do to some sectors of the economy? And by the end of the elections will all the good point merge and come together in the new Presidency?

Hillary-Healthcare reform will be good for industry that has been hammered the past decade with legacy healthcare costs.

Obama-International relations will improve and help companies that have a strong presence in emerging and often dangerous countries.

McCain-Military budgets will stay strong. Services for senior citizens will be provided for. And telecom, due to recent mention by the NYT of his ties with teleco lobbyists.

This is a work in progress so notions currently.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Yukos

Bear Stearns is Yukos, the oil behemoth that was gutted by Putin to his allies. Today, the government allowed BearStearns a painful death, on principle; yet, not allowing the public information in order to accurately value Bear Stearns. Totally reprehensible.

In a capitalistic society this shouldn't of happened. In addition, how does it look for Hank Paulson who was the former head of Goldman Sachs.

Totally unethical.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Wow!

Bear Stearns is bought out at $2.
For myself, I bought it on Thursday and sold it for a 20% loss.

Because I believed the bottoming process is at hand.

But this was a trade and I have noticed that the real money is picking the trend and riding it out which is what we are doing in this co.

US Global, Grow, which we own is in the financial services sector and was just mentioned in USA Today having funds that trolloped the markets in the past 5 years by 433%

Tomorrow, it will be hammered and we are going to get a buy of a lifetime in this stock.

It is only a matter of time when their clientele keeps growing because it is very hard picking gold stocks as well as energy stocks that aren’t barrack gold or Exxon.

This is a long term hold. And we aren’t selling until Frank Holmes comes out with a book like Peter Lynch did in the 80s.

http://www.usfunds.com/main_intro.asp

One that I’m exploring is ABITIBI BOWATER. It is the largest manufacturer of paper in North America and has cash flow problems as Bear Stearns, but has real and physical assets that could be sold for greater than their debt. At the moment, buying the stock and the put is still cheaper than the assets at hand. So this may be a dog, but if I was Asian or European with currencies twice the value of ours, I would say hey half off. And the debt is half off as well.

The market as of 9:17PM Sunday looks very ugly.

Gold is at 1022 an ounce and Im sure no one can remember it this high because it never was!

Now Monday morning will have everyone scaring the bejeebers of anyone who has held on this long. So possibly the bear market will be over soon which doesn’t mean things will bounce back but accumulate steam as fear subsides. The dollar is down and is not rallying but people still like the US. If that wasn’t the case our T bills and bonds wouldn’t yield so little.

Commercial real estate in particular REIT and foreign markets are completely overvalued to the US markets so as I accumulate stock we are going to own etfs that short markets in order to profit short term from the volatility and hopefully pay for our long term picks.

Currently we own EEV and SRS.

There are generational cycles where there is great wealth distributions and this is one of them. Going from technology to financially led wealth to people with hard assets.

Friday, March 14, 2008

I got out of Uranium One

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=49287&sn=Detail

When Neil Froneman, who I dub Mr. Transparent, just suddenly resigned.
Go to that website and see how he misled everyone except Mr. Market which kept a lid on the price of Uranium One. All the previous shareholders of the companies that were merged in Uranium One kept dumping their shares. That should have been a clue. It now seems to me that all these companies dumped their uranium assets on the unknowing public.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

1990redux?

I believe in a truly ugly market, there should be ugly follow through.

Volume was light yesterday and should have followed through today with heavier and uglier volume as it should have dawned on people that things aren't well. But today the Fed showed how truly they are market timers.

Quite possibly an intermediate term low has been placed until next year. We'll see.

VISA IPO, GS report, and possible resurgence in the dollar will be key.

Monday, March 10, 2008

BuyoutBetUpdate

1)DIEBOLD WAS BOUGHT OUT SO BUY NCR
2)ESPREY ANNOUNCES BUSINESS IS GREAT AND UPS DIVIDEND, BUY KRSL
3)SIRI AND XM MIGHT MERGE BUY XMSR
4)NATURAL GAS IS RAGING AND ROSE IS THE ONLY STOCK TRADING AT VALUE. I BELIEVE AFTER LEGAL ISSUES ARE RESOLVED IT WILL NOT REMAIN INDEPENDENT. AS WELL AS NO MERGERS HAVE BEEN ANNOUNCED IN OIL PATCH...THEY WILL!
5)YHOO is still in play. Good value below 30.
6)Bill Miller is buying CFC. BAC is reaffirming their purchase. CFC is trading down on FBI investigation so I am buying when their is extreme blood on the street. For possible 70% move I am buying the Jan 09 2.50 Call options for around 2.61. Expecting a move to 7.00, should move it up 1.89 points which is 72%. I hope the stock keeps tanking.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Howard Dean - "Mr. Crazy"

It looks like Howard Dean has done it again. First, he broke down in 2004, but was promised a choice spot as political honcho of Democratic National Party and now as his party looks to take a leadership role in national debates and possibly take the White House, the entire party is in disarray over the exclusion of two big states: Florida and Michigan.

Bush won 2 elections handily and the Republicans had a strong showing until the last election because the Democrats were in disarray and had no idea how to lead and stay the course.

There may be dissent in the Republican party but they know how to keep focused and not confuse their constituents; even that Idaho senator who decided not step down is.

This is not a political blog nor do I profess a deep knowledge of the intricacies of such a subject but point out that if a party can't even decide on who can vote and, along those lines, possibly disenfranchise big voting bases of their party, who is to say how they will behave when the nation's healthcare overhaul, Iraq policy, Peace process, and especially our recessionary economy will be decided on capital hill.

So an open call for Howard Dean to resign. This next election is too important to the American people to have party politics trump what citizens of this country want to vote for and acknowledge the issues that are close to their heart.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Bets

1)DIEBOLD WAS BOUGHT OUT SO BUY NCR
2)ESPREY ANNOUNCES BUSINESS IS GREAT AND UPS DIVIDEND, BUY KRSL
3)SIRI AND XM MIGHT MERGE BUY XMSR
4)NATURAL GAS IS RAGING AND ROSE IS THE ONLY STOCK TRADING AT VALUE
5)YHOO is still in play. Good value below 30.