Back the truck up natural gas

but I base it on my gut...just everything else has rallied except it...lets see an uptick dude!

If there are "green shoots" then

why in the hell can't natural gas find an uptick. Commercials are wildly long but there doesn't seem to be any sustainable price with this commodity. Not sure what is going on.

If we were bullish

then Apple should have followed through on Friday. The Nasdaq up over 2%, but Apple down after "surprising" earnings should leave room for pause. I have not written much this week since the momentum of the upswing leaves me a bit confused currently as to what to write about, or, possibly, too busy to give it enough attention.

Hope the weekend goes well for everyone.

Please read Jim Sinclair's updates

He has been very informative of late. Additionally, TRE, the stock he is the chairman of, had a significant sell off which could have a major rally back.

I shorted the Nasdaq since

Apple's earnings are tomorrow. I am short Apple because of valuation not anything to do with its product line.

Buy dips

Though it feels like the top is in that isn't a certainty.

Options expiration today

Today may be a little nuts due to expiration and exagerrated moves in the market. But what was white and black yesterday may be opposite this coming week. Buy sales, and sell marked up items.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the spring air!

It is a funny feeling

to start a company and charge for a service that I enjoy doing. It fills me with self doubt about the future and places on me modestly. But the fact of the matter is that I believe I am charging for my time, not for the advice. That is how I rationalize it. Can't wait to start but as that song that I can't get out of my head goes..."you know it's going to be a long, long time"

Face the music

Short real estate has been a conundrum for me, but prices don't lie and people want to bid up these dogs. So lets look at it this way:

1) DRE has a share issuance and the stock went up
2) GGP files bankruptcy and isn't at a low today
3) Bad economic news today concerning real estate, yet the market ripped

The negative is that commercial real estate is leading the non tech higher and could be the last sector to pump up percentage gains till a sell off occurs

1) Gold got hammered today...the playbook has been to buy on these days
2) Newmont sold off and broke $40. I doubt it will last long. Last dip before rip?

That's all I can think of at the moment.

Biggest commercial real estate bankruptcy

General Growth Properties filed a 29 billion dollar bankruptcy. Does that make it a bottom or the beginning of a trend? I noticed Mr. Zell was on Bloomberg and that IYR is shooting up so either it's the beginning of the end of a short squeeze or the bottom is in. Now look at these two charts. Chart #1 shows that GGP had two whopping rallies in excess of 200% before todays bankruptcy filing so it is completely valid to buy dogs, but to take profits when they come. Chart #2 shows the strong rally that IYR is currently in and if it continues one would have to expect that utilities will have a nice rally that has not occurred as of yet. If not, then IYR should go lower and follow GGP down the ring of fire. Let's see!

Mr. Taleb's comment puts into question "confidence"

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.

Benjamin Linus -- imagine him as an investment banker

THIS IS THE REASON YOU CAN'T LIVE WITH THEM BUT THEN AGAIN YOU CAN'T GET RID OF THEM EITHER. WHY? BECAUSE THEY ARE FOLLOWING THE RULES; ALBEIT THE ONES THAT AREN'T READILY ASCERTAINABLE.

Hedge...Buy Las Vegas Sands, Short Goldman Sachs

Las Vegas Sands has better and able management and an easier to understand business than investment banking. Additionally, gambling, at the moment, is a more ethical business than investment banking and have not been bailed out by anyone so, hence, no government interference.

And ultimately, LVS was at one time $140 a share and now $4. GS is over $100, but can be $4.
Lets see!

Short Goldman Sachs

I lost a lot of money the last time Goldman Sachs demonstrated through news outlets how financially healthy they were, but weren't.

This talk of them buying the government's interest is a publicity stunt. Additionally, the correlation between paying off the government and a higher stock price is not valid.

My gut says 20-30% upside risk, but it will fall just as fast.

Yesterday's Market Action

on a day that sees light volume due to the holidays and 2 key economic events coming out today seem suspect.

Today's market action should dictate the short term action in the market.

Commercial real estate broke out Friday and the financials yesterday so it should suggest a new trend is progressing. Additionally, looming General Motors bankruptcy only received a yawn in the marketplace, which tends to lend credence to the bullish scenario.

So buy on dips? and hold on!

Holiday Time

I haven't written since it's holiday time. So it may be a bit choppy over the next couple of days. But I hope to write longer and entertaining articles just that not only is it demanding, it is just hard to do; as opposed to making seat of your pants comments.

The market has, and I haven't read the paper for a year, been following the pattern that Investors Business Daily would say is bullish. The general market even has the W bottom which would be wildly bullish if, when, the market surpasses the January-February high. It is ironic that we would be going up with a pattern that harkens to the other "W", as in our former president.

I have been getting burned as it relates to commercial real estate, but the fact remains that it does appear as a great hedge to other sectors and beaten down companies in the real estate sector, like mortgage related ones (CIM) and property management (CBG).

As to Apple, people flock to what is easy to understand....so short term pain, long term gain.

Of course Apple is up on the day :(

Give me a break

GM is up today.
The last time I posted that I believe the market corrected as GM followed the market down, but I am arguing that the market will follow it higher.
Buy on dips.

Usually rocket testings and earthquakes

cause gold to go down. Buy on the dips. As for the market, I mean it has been up for quite awhile, but it should rally today.

After I wrote about the iPod, the IHT had an

article by Virginia Heffernan entitled "I hate my iPod"

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/magazine/05wwln-medium-t.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=heffernan&st=cse

Update on Apple from "Megan"

"Megan", my business correspondent, who I couldn't help but overhear in a bus stuck in traffic for an hour filled with people worn out after a hard day's work, talking about life, parties, friends, and Apple's future. She mentioned that she just loves the products they are making, but you have to put up with their bureaucracy (that comment I usually make about girls).

I'm not sure if that signals a top, but when people mix the product with their management and by implication their financials, I wouldn't say that's healthy. Visible success, I believe, in this day and age breeds contempt.

The day before I was hearing 10 year olds talk about the merits of Ben and Jerry's vs. Haagen Daaz. Which once again reinforces the merits of a good product, salesmanship no matter how small the customer is, and a succesful image of oneself.

As opposed to Apple where people that buy the phone tend to buy the stock as well. Don't mix the two together.

Penn and Teller on Nuclear Power

Commercial Real Estate is back in vogue

so now it can be shorted again since the classic bearish news made it bullish. Have no idea as with the market when or if it will break, but value is not what you get when you buy the majority of REITs.

QCC, my Canadian baby, is a dog and has stopped paying dividends and basically in run off since it will stop lending until their books are in order.

What should happen

with a big concerted bailout of the automakers is that all the suppliers will get paid and the tell is the major steel company rallies, as well as the major auto suppliers.

I'm getting the sneaky suspicion that bondholders are going to get stuck in all this rut. It's time to buy some wet and wooly dogs.

HOW ABOUT VISTEON?

Buy high and sell higher

Oil shook off the day it tanked. Today is a great day to buy.

Buy the market and Im telling you this is the April Fools Play

Since Bear Stearns dropped, everytime there is fear of bank failure or auto bankruptcy there is mass panic in the market and the market drops excessively.

Today, this is what you call a classic fake out. The big boys have already factored in the bankruptcy and the media is scaring investors out of their shareholdings. Remember Ford isn't in the headlines so it's not the bad news that it appears to be.

I believe the market can be up 200 Dow points from the bottom that it reaches in the early hours. Two days ago was the day to panic. Not today.

Yesterday was warming up for a bonanza of a day. Lets see.

Of course, Obama can say April Fool's Day

And the wise men in DC

should have allowed a massive merger of the big three, downsized capacity, threw out the UAW, provided incentives for replacing old cars with new ones, and focused on the engineering marvels that the research and development of these three mighty firms have. To stimulate an economy, one needs to overhaul the old way of doing things and move into what will work for the next hundred years.

Granted, Ford isn't mentioned yet, but all in due time.

Democrats will never be elected in the Midwest

How the hell can the President allow the states that got him into office face massive unemployment and bankruptcy. Bankrupt those people that flocked to NY, CA, AZ, FL for the boom that got us into this mess.

I can't believe that this is occuring. What made America great was not the banking community, that is only a reflection of the economic might of the US. Well, the hope now is that what happens to G.M. will not happen to the U.S.

Still, assets in the auto manufacturing industry will become undervalued in this market, so be on the lookout for companies with strong balance sheets woefully undervalued.

I am looking, and waiting like a vulture, for Johnson Control and Magna International to get in the single digits. Steel companies are going to sell off but the key to remember about this sector will be the construction boom in infrastructure.