Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
The Bullish Move
When commodities move in unison to the extent they did, and in such short periods, tells me that there is a heavy hand moving them. The heavy hand, I believe, is the realization of what real wealth is and not of the illusionary kind.
Of course, if that is the case, the heavy hand will want to save its money in the ultimate commodity that symbolizes wealth-gold.
It's a process, but man is effected by where he makes his living from. If he makes his money from commodities then he will be more inclined to put his savings in them as well.
If this thesis is correct then the downgrades by the wise, all knowing, brokers of gold mining stocks ABX and AEM are totally incorrect and can quite possibly have the 110 PE ratio extended to AMZN.
Of course, if that is the case, the heavy hand will want to save its money in the ultimate commodity that symbolizes wealth-gold.
It's a process, but man is effected by where he makes his living from. If he makes his money from commodities then he will be more inclined to put his savings in them as well.
If this thesis is correct then the downgrades by the wise, all knowing, brokers of gold mining stocks ABX and AEM are totally incorrect and can quite possibly have the 110 PE ratio extended to AMZN.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Short term rates down, but have you seen the 10 yr!
The 10 yr got punished bad from the dollar rout.
The 10 cent put closed at about 3.50.
3500% from the .10 I recommended it at.
I admit that I din't take my own advice. As you can see, hindsight is 20/20 .
Half the day I run around like a chicken and the rest I'm confused on what to do.
I'm sure I'm not the only one, but easy money that was lost by fear, not discipline, really upsets me.
The 10 cent put closed at about 3.50.
3500% from the .10 I recommended it at.
I admit that I din't take my own advice. As you can see, hindsight is 20/20 .
Half the day I run around like a chicken and the rest I'm confused on what to do.
I'm sure I'm not the only one, but easy money that was lost by fear, not discipline, really upsets me.
Remember it's stock expiration tomorrow
No point capturing a trend if there isn't any, from a technical perspective, until Monday.
Buy AEM (buy high and sell higher) and Close FFG
We will close out FFG.
We will close SXE.
Buy AEM (this could go up like FCX)
We will close SXE.
Buy AEM (this could go up like FCX)
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
As mentioned before but not strong enough recently
Gold and oil led the way for the explosive movement in equities today. Gold and oil says inflation, which can only be brought on by a flood of US dollars and/or growing economy. Our domestic economy isn't so hot currently so it is the growth of money that has led this rally.
I hate it when oil is up and
there was an attack by Israel. Usually, these oil spikes are temporary. Israel attacked Syria in a raid that is very hush-hush unlike the Lebanon strikes.
I realize that the media has had their own theories on why oil is up, but if the allegations made by a WSJ editorial "Osirak II" are true: that Israel bombed new Syrian nuclear facilities that were brought over from North Korea then this oil rally is in its late stage, once again.
The Fed announcement may verify the saying "buy the rumor, short the news."
I am not going to say short oil or related industries because they are in such strong uptrends, but there may be a few months of choppiness so profit taking may be in order.
I realize that the media has had their own theories on why oil is up, but if the allegations made by a WSJ editorial "Osirak II" are true: that Israel bombed new Syrian nuclear facilities that were brought over from North Korea then this oil rally is in its late stage, once again.
The Fed announcement may verify the saying "buy the rumor, short the news."
I am not going to say short oil or related industries because they are in such strong uptrends, but there may be a few months of choppiness so profit taking may be in order.
This is not good
I read today that it is options expiration this week so there may be a clear trend on Wed and Thurs but none on Fri.
Monday or Tuesday of next week should smooth out the information from this week following the Fed.
So I am still going to stay pat with my rolling index positions which are doing great.
There is no change to my other positions.
Lehman had a better than expected 3rd quarter which could be interpreted as positive and has, according to the premarket data. If Lehman can maintain this price surge than I think we are off to the races.
Monday or Tuesday of next week should smooth out the information from this week following the Fed.
So I am still going to stay pat with my rolling index positions which are doing great.
There is no change to my other positions.
Lehman had a better than expected 3rd quarter which could be interpreted as positive and has, according to the premarket data. If Lehman can maintain this price surge than I think we are off to the races.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Update on IBI-a Uganda Gold and Uranium Miner
I recommended this at around 0.05 it is now at 0.035. It looks like an insignificant difference unless one has bought a bunch of shares in this company.
I would go to the website www.ibinvest.com to see the latest updates on the company.
I'm putting it on my Long Term List now, but warn there is a HIGH CHANCE of failure in this company due to its low market cap, but the reward could be 10,000% or higher. There are greater and stronger uranium companies than I'm recommending but they are from the thoughts of others. This company is on my long term list because it is a value investment and in the strong sector of mining and I have no idea when this stock will show results. Additionally, the market cap is so small that no newsletter writer will recommend it nor hedge fund will invest in it heavily until there is more results and liquidity from this stock.
Reasons why I like it.
Not an obscure stock since they were featured on the front page of Northern Miner. Management is accessible and open about progress in the company. They have cash. Should have recurring cash flow from a deal that was set in place with Rio Tinto. Have placed themselves on the shoulders of bigger investors by pooling their gold assets with a larger company. Has the potential of finding uranium deposits that are in mineable quantities. Uganda has been an overlooked country in Africa.
I would go to the website www.ibinvest.com to see the latest updates on the company.
I'm putting it on my Long Term List now, but warn there is a HIGH CHANCE of failure in this company due to its low market cap, but the reward could be 10,000% or higher. There are greater and stronger uranium companies than I'm recommending but they are from the thoughts of others. This company is on my long term list because it is a value investment and in the strong sector of mining and I have no idea when this stock will show results. Additionally, the market cap is so small that no newsletter writer will recommend it nor hedge fund will invest in it heavily until there is more results and liquidity from this stock.
Reasons why I like it.
Not an obscure stock since they were featured on the front page of Northern Miner. Management is accessible and open about progress in the company. They have cash. Should have recurring cash flow from a deal that was set in place with Rio Tinto. Have placed themselves on the shoulders of bigger investors by pooling their gold assets with a larger company. Has the potential of finding uranium deposits that are in mineable quantities. Uganda has been an overlooked country in Africa.
Update on IBI-a Uganda Gold and Uranium Miner
I recommended this at around 0.05 it is now at 0.035. It looks like an insignificant difference unless one has bought a bunch of shares in this company.
I would go to the website www.ibinvest.com to see the latest updates on the company.
I'm putting it on my Long Term List now, but warn there is a HIGH CHANCE of failure in this company due to its low market cap, but the reward could be 10,000% or higher. There are greater and stronger uranium companies than I'm recommending but they are from the thoughts of others. This company is on my long term list because it is a value investment and in the strong sector of mining and I have no idea when this stock will show results. Additionally, the market cap is so small that no newsletter writer will recommend it nor hedge fund will invest in it heavily until there is more results and liquidity from this stock.
Reasons why I like it.
They have cash. Should have recurring cash flow from a deal that was set in place with Rio Tinto. Have placed themselves on the shoulders of bigger investors by pooling their gold assets with a larger company. Has the potential of finding uranium deposits that are in mineable quantities. Uganda has been an overlooked country in Africa.
I would go to the website www.ibinvest.com to see the latest updates on the company.
I'm putting it on my Long Term List now, but warn there is a HIGH CHANCE of failure in this company due to its low market cap, but the reward could be 10,000% or higher. There are greater and stronger uranium companies than I'm recommending but they are from the thoughts of others. This company is on my long term list because it is a value investment and in the strong sector of mining and I have no idea when this stock will show results. Additionally, the market cap is so small that no newsletter writer will recommend it nor hedge fund will invest in it heavily until there is more results and liquidity from this stock.
Reasons why I like it.
They have cash. Should have recurring cash flow from a deal that was set in place with Rio Tinto. Have placed themselves on the shoulders of bigger investors by pooling their gold assets with a larger company. Has the potential of finding uranium deposits that are in mineable quantities. Uganda has been an overlooked country in Africa.
Update on ITT
They just announced that they are buying some night vision manufacturer for over 1bln in CASH! Not stock.
I'm not sure how the market will respond but it looks like they want to grow their business. This is very positive.
I'm not sure how the market will respond but it looks like they want to grow their business. This is very positive.
363 blog hits, wow!
I am overjoyed that people have been reading my blog and thank you. I realize that it may appear spotty lately, but it is not due to NOT watching the market.
I just don't have anything else to say. I'm waiting patiently to see a clear trend that I can respond to.
I just don't have anything else to say. I'm waiting patiently to see a clear trend that I can respond to.
Update on Nuclear
1) Last week's Economist featured on the front cover the nuclear power industry.
2) Greenspan's just released book touts nuclear power.
These are very prominent entities in the global mind to make such pronouncements. Whatever the Fed says, the policies of governments are towards a growing nuclear power base so companies in these sectors should at least be relatively strong in a global sell-off or recession.
But just think how well it will do in a growing international economy!
2) Greenspan's just released book touts nuclear power.
These are very prominent entities in the global mind to make such pronouncements. Whatever the Fed says, the policies of governments are towards a growing nuclear power base so companies in these sectors should at least be relatively strong in a global sell-off or recession.
But just think how well it will do in a growing international economy!
This is not a trading day
Today, is a day where you take it easy and enhance ones knowledge.
I don't even think tomorrow is a great day to invest because volatility is so heavy that there is no clear trend.
By Wednesday afternoon or possibly Thursday, everything will be clear.
I don't even think tomorrow is a great day to invest because volatility is so heavy that there is no clear trend.
By Wednesday afternoon or possibly Thursday, everything will be clear.
Partial Update on Investments
Hello.
I don't think the results for the Rolling Index will be relevant till after the Fed meeting so will post next Friday. BUT MARKETS MAY BE VOLATILE SO I MAY BE POSTING SEVERAL TIMES THIS WEEK!
For the Rolling Index:
My sole long SXE has hit 52 wk high.
Our Shorts have held in there.
I am sticking tight till after FED meeting on Tuesday.
For Speculative:
EBAY, and NBR and ROSE are doing very well.
For Long Term:
ALL ARE DOING WELL-CMOS IS TOO NEW TO QUALIFY
I don't think the results for the Rolling Index will be relevant till after the Fed meeting so will post next Friday. BUT MARKETS MAY BE VOLATILE SO I MAY BE POSTING SEVERAL TIMES THIS WEEK!
For the Rolling Index:
My sole long SXE has hit 52 wk high.
Our Shorts have held in there.
I am sticking tight till after FED meeting on Tuesday.
For Speculative:
EBAY, and NBR and ROSE are doing very well.
For Long Term:
ALL ARE DOING WELL-CMOS IS TOO NEW TO QUALIFY
Monday, September 10, 2007
Confusion Reigns AND A SPECULATIVE PLAY
People are not certain what is going on in the world. When things get that way, know where you stand in the matter.
What I'm more concerned about is our perception of the Fed as savior. Last time I checked, the Fed isn't mentioned in the Bible. We had a Moses and we had a God. There was Jesus and there was Mohammed, but we never had the Fed. The benevolent Fed.
What is the Fed's role? The Fed could be seen as the head of a private banking monopoly of the largest banks which would mean they would like to see the failure of their competitors which means that rates will stay the same.
The Fed's role is to take tacit orders from government to keep things pumping along. In that case rates will be lowered. But they weren't, at least not soon enough. So I'm leaning towards the first idea so far.
Another idea is that the Fed's role is too maintain control of inflation/deflation. Ironically, both are running rampant right now. Commodities up and products down. Stability would dictate that things wouldn't be going to such extremes.
And finally, the Fed's role is to maintain US Dollar stability. Well, has anyone gone overseas lately?
I'm still leaning towards the first notion.
If that is the case SHORT T-NOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BUY SEPT 88 P AT .05-.10
What I'm more concerned about is our perception of the Fed as savior. Last time I checked, the Fed isn't mentioned in the Bible. We had a Moses and we had a God. There was Jesus and there was Mohammed, but we never had the Fed. The benevolent Fed.
What is the Fed's role? The Fed could be seen as the head of a private banking monopoly of the largest banks which would mean they would like to see the failure of their competitors which means that rates will stay the same.
The Fed's role is to take tacit orders from government to keep things pumping along. In that case rates will be lowered. But they weren't, at least not soon enough. So I'm leaning towards the first idea so far.
Another idea is that the Fed's role is too maintain control of inflation/deflation. Ironically, both are running rampant right now. Commodities up and products down. Stability would dictate that things wouldn't be going to such extremes.
And finally, the Fed's role is to maintain US Dollar stability. Well, has anyone gone overseas lately?
I'm still leaning towards the first notion.
If that is the case SHORT T-NOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BUY SEPT 88 P AT .05-.10
WSJ today
Covered the subject of volatility in the market. As in everything, people want the quick buck and are not patient in capturing the trend of the marketplace.
I'm dedicated to capturing the trend and profiting from it. Looking at the market, it has held strong in the face of turbulent waters which says in my mind that there are good investments out there but extremely horrible ones as well.
I'm dedicated to capturing the trend and profiting from it. Looking at the market, it has held strong in the face of turbulent waters which says in my mind that there are good investments out there but extremely horrible ones as well.
Update for Sept 3-7
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
CURRENT POSITION
Stock (l)ong or (s)hort Entry Price Stop Price and Amt of Shares
TOTAL PROFIT (REALIZED AND UNREALIZED) +66.45
The index began at 9686.26 and ended at 9752.71
An increase of 0.7%.
SP 500 INDEX closed at 1453.53 from 1473.99
A -1.4% loss for the week.
OVERPERFORMED INDEX BY 2.10%
SPECULATIVE (#1 holding strong. #4 showing its hand)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long NBR 28.98
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
5) Long Ebay 35.23
6) Long ITT 66.00
LONG TERM (Gold surged this week)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27-if market tanks
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03-just undervalued
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90--everyone should own this
4) Long NLR (Nuclear ETF) 36.89-the way of the future, as my friend says
5) Long CMOS (Credence Systems) 2.86-Value Investing per Benjamin Graham stock
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
Stock (l)ong or (s)hort Entry Price Stop Price and Amt of Shares
| sjf | l | 73.67 | 67.7764 | 14 |
| sjf | l | 73.67 | 67.7764 | 14 |
| lvb | s | 30.42 | 32.8536 | 33 |
| ust | s | 48.02 | 51.8616 | 21 |
| ffg | s | 37.03 | 39.9924 | 27 |
| spls | s | 23.3 | 25.164 | 43 |
| sxe | l | 20.96 | 19.2832 | 48 |
TOTAL PROFIT (REALIZED AND UNREALIZED) +66.45
The index began at 9686.26 and ended at 9752.71
An increase of 0.7%.
SP 500 INDEX closed at 1453.53 from 1473.99
A -1.4% loss for the week.
OVERPERFORMED INDEX BY 2.10%
SPECULATIVE (#1 holding strong. #4 showing its hand)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long NBR 28.98
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
5) Long Ebay 35.23
6) Long ITT 66.00
LONG TERM (Gold surged this week)
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27-if market tanks
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03-just undervalued
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90--everyone should own this
4) Long NLR (Nuclear ETF) 36.89-the way of the future, as my friend says
5) Long CMOS (Credence Systems) 2.86-Value Investing per Benjamin Graham stock
Friday, September 7, 2007
One more thought
Investing in the market is rather quick and easy after the paperwork is filled out.
Like Spiderman, with great leverage comes great responsibility.
I bring this up because people think that:
1) If you are good picking trends and investing likewise, then you can trade actively
2) If you can trade actively, then you can day trade
3) If you can day trade then you can buy options
4) If you can buy options then you can sell them as well
5) If you can sell options then you can trade in the futures market, which of course is the ultimate in leverage.
These are 5 separate areas of the financial trading world. And all take a lifetime to master - you know when you have reached that point when your memoir is well read.
Any single one can make you a fortune but you have to be wise and accept your lot and not covet the others. I will be satisfied picking the trend of the market and investing likewise.
Of course, nothing is set in stone but that is my strength which I must, in order to thrive, focus on.
Like Spiderman, with great leverage comes great responsibility.
I bring this up because people think that:
1) If you are good picking trends and investing likewise, then you can trade actively
2) If you can trade actively, then you can day trade
3) If you can day trade then you can buy options
4) If you can buy options then you can sell them as well
5) If you can sell options then you can trade in the futures market, which of course is the ultimate in leverage.
These are 5 separate areas of the financial trading world. And all take a lifetime to master - you know when you have reached that point when your memoir is well read.
Any single one can make you a fortune but you have to be wise and accept your lot and not covet the others. I will be satisfied picking the trend of the market and investing likewise.
Of course, nothing is set in stone but that is my strength which I must, in order to thrive, focus on.
Big Week for the Rolling Index :-) but...
My Rolling Index really did well this week even though it has been the same stocks for two weeks. Will post Sunday. Even SXE the sole long, so far, didn't go down much.
I didn't buy gold for index because of personal timing issues from previous experience which was a mistake.
I didn't recommend any stocks today because the market was down so much that I would like to see what Monday brings.
So the index did a good job not getting us into longs where the trend was down, but it took time getting there.
AS FOR ME PERSONALLY, I got a bit greedy and broke the rules of my system and started overweighting certain stocks; unfortunately they didn't go down today. That is why the index stresses diversifying in shorter term trading because you don't know what stock will hit.
I didn't buy gold for index because of personal timing issues from previous experience which was a mistake.
I didn't recommend any stocks today because the market was down so much that I would like to see what Monday brings.
So the index did a good job not getting us into longs where the trend was down, but it took time getting there.
AS FOR ME PERSONALLY, I got a bit greedy and broke the rules of my system and started overweighting certain stocks; unfortunately they didn't go down today. That is why the index stresses diversifying in shorter term trading because you don't know what stock will hit.
2 Day Moving Avg/2 Wk Moving Avg
It appears when I'm really bullish or bearish there is lag. And the big move happens 2 wks after my initial thoughts on that occurrence. But 2 days after my thought would give a taste of things to come.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Benjamin Graham stock
I was flipping through Value Line and came across a stock that is trading at book value, actually makes a profit, and has a PE of 10.
It is called Credence Systems and it sells Precision Instruments to the semiconductor industry.
I am adding this to the long term portfolio. CMOS.
I don't think there is more to say.
It is called Credence Systems and it sells Precision Instruments to the semiconductor industry.
I am adding this to the long term portfolio. CMOS.
I don't think there is more to say.
It is always
tough to short the market after a big day and conversely to go long on a huge ramp up of the Dow.
That is when you just have to ask yourself why you are in a stock and the time frame that you imagine yourself in it as well. But you have to be truthful with yourself how you would handle the volatility.
That is when you just have to ask yourself why you are in a stock and the time frame that you imagine yourself in it as well. But you have to be truthful with yourself how you would handle the volatility.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
ITT
Earlier I posited about missing opportunities. What about ITT? After great news, the stock has been selling off. No continuance of trend which has always driven me crazy. So if Im right about this stock and judging the way it is acting, ITT will probably go down 6-10% then rally to all time highs? I'm putting this stock on speculation list based on my experience of SII, LBY, JDSU, SGR.
Once again I reiterate that the lists I'm posting are not recommendation even when I say it is a recommendation. I'm trying to think out loud and be honest about my trades. I love talking about the market and sharing my thoughts which is why Im posting. I just don't want to have the burden of worrying about other people's investments; especially when I'm not getting compensated for it.
BUT I SO APPRECIATE PEOPLE CHECKING OUT AND APPRECIATING MY BLOG!
Once again I reiterate that the lists I'm posting are not recommendation even when I say it is a recommendation. I'm trying to think out loud and be honest about my trades. I love talking about the market and sharing my thoughts which is why Im posting. I just don't want to have the burden of worrying about other people's investments; especially when I'm not getting compensated for it.
BUT I SO APPRECIATE PEOPLE CHECKING OUT AND APPRECIATING MY BLOG!
EBAY
Im going to have to pick ebay today for my spec list. Unlike Amazon, it makes money and always has. Skype I think is a cheap economical way to communicate worldwide. And their Paypal division has been finding ways of making money and not in subprime. And can you say ebay recession proof? Because in recessions, people barter, sell, and liquidate stuff to raise cash which is what ebays wonderful service provides.
Today, AMZN signed a deal with Universal to distribute their television content in direct competition to AAPL. But this wasn't a profit center for AAPL. Maybe AMZN will get ancillary business, Im not sure, but I do know that I buy books on AMZN and millions others do but they just can't seem to make money in relation to their value. Jim Cramer and Bill Miller seem to think AMZN is the way to go, so I will not dispute their thoughts.
But I maintain that ebay is the stronger one.
Today, AMZN signed a deal with Universal to distribute their television content in direct competition to AAPL. But this wasn't a profit center for AAPL. Maybe AMZN will get ancillary business, Im not sure, but I do know that I buy books on AMZN and millions others do but they just can't seem to make money in relation to their value. Jim Cramer and Bill Miller seem to think AMZN is the way to go, so I will not dispute their thoughts.
But I maintain that ebay is the stronger one.
Concerning Sell Offs
This year I missed the boat on a few stocks and I'm really trying to figure the cause of the error.
SII LBY FCX SGR AEM JDSU
Any one would have made some serious cash flow but as soon as I made a few bucks on them, the stocks sold off and kept going down-tricking me out of them-then shooting right back up, under my nose.
SII LBY FCX SGR AEM JDSU
Any one would have made some serious cash flow but as soon as I made a few bucks on them, the stocks sold off and kept going down-tricking me out of them-then shooting right back up, under my nose.
Days like these
The market can sell off big in the morning but only if there is fear will it REALLY go down. If not, then we should see a late rally.
Up 6 days in a row should show a day or two of profit taking.
Today, I will be looking to go long.
(XLNX-strong semiconductor, EBAY-should have AMZN performance are looking good but not a part of my paper trading system)
Up 6 days in a row should show a day or two of profit taking.
Today, I will be looking to go long.
(XLNX-strong semiconductor, EBAY-should have AMZN performance are looking good but not a part of my paper trading system)
Monday, September 3, 2007
Natural Gas
Just look at it . How can it keep going down . I maintain that storage is bullish because it makes things priced to perfection . And nothing is perfect in business.
Another bullish note is that there are no hedge funds toying around with the price of gas; if anything they have been betting that it would go down.
Natural Gas is not only more bullish than the Japanese Yen, which had sold off for 2 solid years, but will explode higher in a more dramatic way than the Yen and it will probably feel like it came out of nowhere.
I don't like seeing my spread act miserably but I haven't thrown in the towel yet and just look at the oil and gas service group getting stronger. They can only get that way when there is exploration demand and that only happens when they are shortages!
NBR has kept retracing what appears to be a support level and it appears well defended with higher volume on up days. I think NBR will be a clue to NG demand. I wish my broker would let me borrow 1bln to take a majority interest in this company and pay myself a fat dividend.
Another bullish note is that there are no hedge funds toying around with the price of gas; if anything they have been betting that it would go down.
Natural Gas is not only more bullish than the Japanese Yen, which had sold off for 2 solid years, but will explode higher in a more dramatic way than the Yen and it will probably feel like it came out of nowhere.
I don't like seeing my spread act miserably but I haven't thrown in the towel yet and just look at the oil and gas service group getting stronger. They can only get that way when there is exploration demand and that only happens when they are shortages!
NBR has kept retracing what appears to be a support level and it appears well defended with higher volume on up days. I think NBR will be a clue to NG demand. I wish my broker would let me borrow 1bln to take a majority interest in this company and pay myself a fat dividend.
Nuclear Seasonals
Two of the writers I like most Jake Bernstein and Larry Williams obsess over seasonal influences of investments.
I personally believe and would love to profit this year from the one that I'm confident in and that is uranium mining. They drill and explore in the summer and make public their results in late September through late November. The investors that got in early sell in the summer as a result of not knowing what the drill results will bring, but come late September, with information coming in, the big investors can accurately gauge the value of these miners. We, as somewhat smaller investors than the big boys, can profit by getting in ahead of them and hopefully they will put us on their shoulders for the ride of a lifetime. Now of course the results could be bad, but this industry is still small that if you focus on the bigger plays, they are more likely to strike great results which will add tremendously to the bottom line.
Now everyone knows that September is a horrible month for the market, but I'm not so sure concerning uranium (and, truthfully, about the market as well; excluding banks and REITs.)
So buckle up because I think we are going to see some merger mania of the bigger names this year. The top of this market was too sudden and the writing wasn't on the wall as Mr. Mitchell of hedge fund fame claims. He was correct about the mania surrounding uranium mining shares but not the inherent growth aspect that is like a speeding locomotive-once in motion HARD TO STOP!
And I think that governments haven't placed the words "monopoly" and "uranium consolidation" together, as governments never do in new industries until its too late at which time Mr. Rockefeller's saying that "instead of owning one great company, I now own eight." (this is a paraphrase by the way)
I personally believe and would love to profit this year from the one that I'm confident in and that is uranium mining. They drill and explore in the summer and make public their results in late September through late November. The investors that got in early sell in the summer as a result of not knowing what the drill results will bring, but come late September, with information coming in, the big investors can accurately gauge the value of these miners. We, as somewhat smaller investors than the big boys, can profit by getting in ahead of them and hopefully they will put us on their shoulders for the ride of a lifetime. Now of course the results could be bad, but this industry is still small that if you focus on the bigger plays, they are more likely to strike great results which will add tremendously to the bottom line.
Now everyone knows that September is a horrible month for the market, but I'm not so sure concerning uranium (and, truthfully, about the market as well; excluding banks and REITs.)
So buckle up because I think we are going to see some merger mania of the bigger names this year. The top of this market was too sudden and the writing wasn't on the wall as Mr. Mitchell of hedge fund fame claims. He was correct about the mania surrounding uranium mining shares but not the inherent growth aspect that is like a speeding locomotive-once in motion HARD TO STOP!
And I think that governments haven't placed the words "monopoly" and "uranium consolidation" together, as governments never do in new industries until its too late at which time Mr. Rockefeller's saying that "instead of owning one great company, I now own eight." (this is a paraphrase by the way)
Saw the Light
I hate saying that I got religion, but nuclear power in my eyes is the future, even in the face of a possibly more significant market correction. The irony is that as the acceptance of the industry is starting to percolate the mass mind, the companies in this industry have gone down 1987 style. I can rationalize my decision to stick with these companies because they are real companies with real assets that the market hasn't appreciated.
But imagine when they will be appreciated in a consistent manner? Then the pain and joy of holding these volatile securities will be appreciated IN ALL SENSES OF THE WORD.
Mr. Buffett says to "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." I think it says it all considering this industry.
NLR etf keeps it real simples to get into the game.
But imagine when they will be appreciated in a consistent manner? Then the pain and joy of holding these volatile securities will be appreciated IN ALL SENSES OF THE WORD.
Mr. Buffett says to "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." I think it says it all considering this industry.
NLR etf keeps it real simples to get into the game.
Websites to check out!
http://advertising-us.areva.com/ad-campaign.php
or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3B__ovj2jU
www.laramide.com
or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3B__ovj2jU
www.laramide.com
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Making a Place for Myself
I like to read and share what I have learned. I realize that in the finance business there are plenty of smart guys and some with the profits to prove it. So how can I differentiate myself from the sundry other individuals who comment on markets? It is an important question to me since it is not worth it to me to rehash what others have written or presented. And the idea of cribbing notes isn't ideal for someone who actually reads the works of others and enjoys their thoughts. So if I can't contribute my own two cents then it's not worth having my blog. I think one unique thing I have is the rolling index. I view it as fantasy league - in the sense that it keeps you in the game as you watch the machinations of finance in motion.
This week I gave a lot of thought to the content, which I am pleased with. But will try to make it more entertaining; something which Cramer is unique in-making a boring subject interesting. Of course, I look at the world a bit differently then him so I think you will be pleasantly surprised with the results. The darn thing is that it takes time to get it just right. So there will be inconsistencies until I have found my voce!
So please send me comments so I can really make this blog sing!
This week I gave a lot of thought to the content, which I am pleased with. But will try to make it more entertaining; something which Cramer is unique in-making a boring subject interesting. Of course, I look at the world a bit differently then him so I think you will be pleasantly surprised with the results. The darn thing is that it takes time to get it just right. So there will be inconsistencies until I have found my voce!
So please send me comments so I can really make this blog sing!
Update on Investment for two weeks Aug 17-31
It is very fun having a trade system which takes away some of the stress of making decisions. But it is tough analyzing results and even rougher showing results that aren't perfect. I didn't intend to delay results but have been travelling and couldn't put in the time to appropriately make comments, nor analyze results.
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
CURRENT POSITION
Stock (l)ong or (s)hort Entry Price Stop Price and Amt of Shares
TOTAL LOSS (REALIZED AND UNREALIZED) -310.45
Want to capture trend which is down, but has rallied over the past two weeks.
Looking to get long, but not before Labor Day. But it is telling that none of the stocks chosen have hitten their stops yet.
Two weeks ago we began the index at 9996.71 and ended at 9686.26
A decrease of 3.1%.
SP 500 INDEX closed at 1473.99 two weeks ago from 1445.94.
A 1.9% gain for the week.
UNDERPERFORMED INDEX BY 5.00%
SPECULATIVE (#4 doing well. Not #3, but believe patience will be rewarded. #2 has acted well)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long NBR 28.98
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
LONG TERM
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27-if market tanks
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03-just undervalued
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90--everyone should own this
4) Long NLR (Nuclear ETF) 36.89-the way of the future, as my friend says
Rules:
We can have at most 10 positions, each having close to a $1000 dollar investment. At first, I was going to buy exactly $1000 worth of stock but you can't buy fractions of stocks, so I have rounded all fractions of stock upward in trying to keep this paper trading system as realistic as possible.
All transactions have $10 commissions.
Stock (l)ong or (s)hort Entry Price Stop Price and Amt of Shares
| sjf | l | 73.67 | 67.7764 | 14 |
| sjf | l | 73.67 | 67.7764 | 14 |
| lvb | s | 30.42 | 32.8536 | 33 |
| ust | s | 48.02 | 51.8616 | 21 |
| ffg | s | 37.03 | 39.9924 | 27 |
| spls | s | 23.3 | 25.164 | 43 |
| sxe | l | 20.96 | 19.2832 | 48 |
TOTAL LOSS (REALIZED AND UNREALIZED) -310.45
Want to capture trend which is down, but has rallied over the past two weeks.
Looking to get long, but not before Labor Day. But it is telling that none of the stocks chosen have hitten their stops yet.
Two weeks ago we began the index at 9996.71 and ended at 9686.26
A decrease of 3.1%.
SP 500 INDEX closed at 1473.99 two weeks ago from 1445.94.
A 1.9% gain for the week.
UNDERPERFORMED INDEX BY 5.00%
SPECULATIVE (#4 doing well. Not #3, but believe patience will be rewarded. #2 has acted well)
1) Long ROSE 16.67
2) Long NBR 28.98
3) Long UNG (natural gas) 39.42/Short USO (crude oil) 58.62=0.67
4) Long QQQ (nasdaq) 47.78/ Long RWM (which is short the Russell2000) 73.26=0.65
LONG TERM
1) Long FXY (Japanese Yen) 84.27-if market tanks
2) Long FXS (Swiss Franc) 149.03-just undervalued
3) Long GLD (Gold) 65.90--everyone should own this
4) Long NLR (Nuclear ETF) 36.89-the way of the future, as my friend says
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