DRE is a REIT that is primarily in the Midwest. If my thesis holds true in this recession, the midwest is going to bloom as the coasts work off the excesses of the previous bubble.
1) BUY THE MIDWEST
People liken the crisis to the Great Depression and others, the bible readers in particular, liken it to the 7 bad years of Egypt. But I would say that it is more like the other stories in the bible when there was famine, people went down to Egypt for sustenance. I believe that the US is going to follow Britain's and China's lead into Africa and rebuild the poverty and war stricken continent. If we thought CHINDIA was the play of the century I don't think we have seen anything yet.
2) BUY AFRICA
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Ingersoll Rand looks cheap
It's a great company bringing value to shareholders. Additionally, the 12.50 call options are cheap. Buy on the weak opening. Risk 50%, Initial reward 25%.
I don't like my broker
There appears to be lack of respect among brokers and their clients when communication remains vague and artificial and believe it to be the majority of cases. But then one moves to an online account where the costs are low but the navigation and paperwork is time consuming. Others subscribe to newsletters with the idea of hidden knowledge but in the end one realizes the fallibility that is inherent in all men. There are pros and cons to everything, but I believe it is best to have a broker that speaks his mind like Jim Cramer and ultimately the reason why he continues to have a show at the end of the week: entertainment and empathy. And that ultimately should guide ones investment approach for long term investments.
Of course, Artie in the Sopranos couldn't keep his mouth shut so he lost a lot of business in his restaurant, but at the end of the day he cares about what he serves. One needs to be flexible but also focus on the meat and potatoes because that is where survival is dependent on.
One needs to enjoy the industry and sector he places his money in and have a feeling WHY he is doing it as well. Today, I read in the Economist how LTCM succeeded in making billions of dollars and losing it as well. Ultimately, they made pennies on overleveraged positions; very much like Coca Cola makes on a can of coke, but their leverage isn't ridiculous. And that is what one has to have in mind when trading in the stock market: thick and hefty profits. Forget about the pennies and the ultra low commissions, but the inherent value a company can share with the shareholder. ETFC may be a dog with declining customer base, but they are in a great business but with a bad balance sheet, but unlike leveraged positions to make a few pennies, one dollar invested in this stock has the potential to yield 10 dollars if they can remain solvent and their subprime bonds pay off. You can lose dollar, but make a 1000%, this type of thinking reduces stress since you don't need to be right all the time. In baseball, a slugger usually bats below .300 so if we can a little bit more consistent and less nervous great wealth shall come but it may not all be monetary.
That is not gambling and it is not investing but what is called contentment and that is priceless. Something which I hope to impart in my blog.
Of course, Artie in the Sopranos couldn't keep his mouth shut so he lost a lot of business in his restaurant, but at the end of the day he cares about what he serves. One needs to be flexible but also focus on the meat and potatoes because that is where survival is dependent on.
One needs to enjoy the industry and sector he places his money in and have a feeling WHY he is doing it as well. Today, I read in the Economist how LTCM succeeded in making billions of dollars and losing it as well. Ultimately, they made pennies on overleveraged positions; very much like Coca Cola makes on a can of coke, but their leverage isn't ridiculous. And that is what one has to have in mind when trading in the stock market: thick and hefty profits. Forget about the pennies and the ultra low commissions, but the inherent value a company can share with the shareholder. ETFC may be a dog with declining customer base, but they are in a great business but with a bad balance sheet, but unlike leveraged positions to make a few pennies, one dollar invested in this stock has the potential to yield 10 dollars if they can remain solvent and their subprime bonds pay off. You can lose dollar, but make a 1000%, this type of thinking reduces stress since you don't need to be right all the time. In baseball, a slugger usually bats below .300 so if we can a little bit more consistent and less nervous great wealth shall come but it may not all be monetary.
That is not gambling and it is not investing but what is called contentment and that is priceless. Something which I hope to impart in my blog.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Hecla Redux
Today Rio Tinto announced that they may (read will) consider share issuance to pay down debt. So their entire plan of a focused and streamlined company was not really a part of their plan in the first place. To think that a company that made more money in cold hard cash, than most Fortune 500 companies will ever see, couldn't save it and prepare for a commodity downturn is to my mind quite repulsive.
Hecla on the other hand was taken out to the woodshed and dumped like it held leveraged mortgage backed securities. Silver may have dropped but Hecla's intrinsic value is wildly higher than its 2 and change price currently quoted.
Unless silver drops back down and significantly, Hecla is a stock to consider "backing the truck up" on.
Hecla on the other hand was taken out to the woodshed and dumped like it held leveraged mortgage backed securities. Silver may have dropped but Hecla's intrinsic value is wildly higher than its 2 and change price currently quoted.
Unless silver drops back down and significantly, Hecla is a stock to consider "backing the truck up" on.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Two Pare Trade Ideas
LONG NLY,CIM,ETFC,SUI,AIV,DRE--SRS
(IF THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO BAIL OUT ANYONE IT IS THE HOMEOWNER WHICH MY HOLDINGS WILL COVER)
LONG GLW,CSCO,DOX,S--TLL
(ALL 3 COMPANIES ARE TRADING AT VALUE AND ARE LEADERS IN THEIR FIELD WHILE THE TELECO SECTOR IN GENERAL IS OVERVALUED DUE TO DIVIDEND YIELDS)
(IF THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO BAIL OUT ANYONE IT IS THE HOMEOWNER WHICH MY HOLDINGS WILL COVER)
LONG GLW,CSCO,DOX,S--TLL
(ALL 3 COMPANIES ARE TRADING AT VALUE AND ARE LEADERS IN THEIR FIELD WHILE THE TELECO SECTOR IN GENERAL IS OVERVALUED DUE TO DIVIDEND YIELDS)
ETrade Financial and Raymond James
If you think GS and MS are cheap then I would say RJF is cheaper since it has non of the leveraged nonsense of the others.
ETFC has a bunch of bum housing related bonds, but the FED has been buying those up and now the US government is committed to getting people to keep their homes whose to say the gov won't succeed? So, in short, I think people are overlooking this highly leveraged bet.
ETFC has a bunch of bum housing related bonds, but the FED has been buying those up and now the US government is committed to getting people to keep their homes whose to say the gov won't succeed? So, in short, I think people are overlooking this highly leveraged bet.
Monday, January 26, 2009
All in the timing
Hecla bought out Rio Tinto's stake in their joint silver mine which generates a tremendous amount of silver in a stable area of the globe: Alaska. In the meantime, Rio Tinto dallied around with aluminum and amounting an enormous amount of debt. Yes, Hecla issued more shares to finance the company, but as gold and silver keep going higher, it would appear that the bankers missed out on this bonanaza. And yes their interest in South America has been reduced, but it was sold in cash so they did receive money for its mines. Hecla should, but lets see, outperform gold and silver as they go for their old highs.
Education vs. Drugs: or what I call the Pink Floyd Trade!!!
Education stocks rallied because of the expectation and numbers that show a mass reeducation of the public, but that is only one facet of the new administration in office.
Drugs and health care are going to be what energy was to the Bush administration. And energy will always be what it always has, the lifeblood of commerce.
As proof, PFE rallied after announcing the massive buyout/merger of Wyeth. That usually doesn't happen unless Time Warner announces itself being sold to AOL.
I am not placing this trade as of yet, but this would definitely be for the venturesome: Long Drugs/ Short Education
or what I call the Pink Floyd trade.
Drugs and health care are going to be what energy was to the Bush administration. And energy will always be what it always has, the lifeblood of commerce.
As proof, PFE rallied after announcing the massive buyout/merger of Wyeth. That usually doesn't happen unless Time Warner announces itself being sold to AOL.
I am not placing this trade as of yet, but this would definitely be for the venturesome: Long Drugs/ Short Education
or what I call the Pink Floyd trade.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Kruschev on Wikipedia
Tell me if there isn't parallels!!!!!
Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev (Russian: Никита Сергеевич Хрущёв, Nikita Serge'evič Hruščëv) (April 17, 1894 – September 11, 1971) served as First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1953 to 1964, following the death of Joseph Stalin, and Chairman of the Council of Ministers from 1958 to 1964. Khrushchev was responsible for the de-Stalinization of the USSR, as well as several liberal reforms ranging from agriculture to foreign policy. Khrushchev's party colleagues removed him from power in 1964, replacing him with Leonid Brezhnev.
....
Khrushchev's policies alienated significant sections of the Communist party leadership. Although Khrushchev abandoned the physical repression of Stalin, he made frequent changes in party structures and personnel in his efforts to improve economic efficiency - especially in agriculture. Many leading cadres feared for their jobs. Similarly he alienated many in the army by directing investment to missile forces and seeking to release more manpower for economically productive tasks.
....
Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev (Russian: Никита Сергеевич Хрущёв, Nikita Serge'evič Hruščëv) (April 17, 1894 – September 11, 1971) served as First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1953 to 1964, following the death of Joseph Stalin, and Chairman of the Council of Ministers from 1958 to 1964. Khrushchev was responsible for the de-Stalinization of the USSR, as well as several liberal reforms ranging from agriculture to foreign policy. Khrushchev's party colleagues removed him from power in 1964, replacing him with Leonid Brezhnev.
....
Khrushchev's policies alienated significant sections of the Communist party leadership. Although Khrushchev abandoned the physical repression of Stalin, he made frequent changes in party structures and personnel in his efforts to improve economic efficiency - especially in agriculture. Many leading cadres feared for their jobs. Similarly he alienated many in the army by directing investment to missile forces and seeking to release more manpower for economically productive tasks.
....
- Coping with housing crisis by quickly building millions of apartments according to simplified floor plans, dubbed khrushchovkas.
- Created a minimum wage in 1956.
- Redenomination of the ruble 10:1 in 1961.
Some Ideas
SNEN, is a Chinese supplier of liquid natural gas as fuel for transport. If one takes to heart what Jim Rogers mentions on the long term growth of China then this would appear to be a very cheap company. If one is to take Boone Pickens thoughts on the future of natural gas as a viable alternative to diesel and gasoline then one has to pick up a few shares as well. As for me, as long as they make a profit. 100 shares of this can have exponential growth over the long term. Lets see.
http://www.sinoenergycorporation.com
CPRT, a value investor stock then an IBD high flyer and now a perpetual dog, is a definite investment in a recession (though it is interesting to note their record profits were brought about when everyone else was making record profits) since they are in essence middlemen in a market that ultimately creates monopolies without the inherent capital investments. But commercials like this of course signal a sell but it will come to a point when it's a buy again. In the meantime, it is educational to learn how they did it. And I'm thinking if there is a total upheaval from the old combustible engine to hybrids, CPRT is going to have a pick up in business.
As always, need to follow the companies and their financial performances. For instance, SNEN has cash flow problems. And CPRT currently has insiders dumping millions of dollars of shares. If CPRT gets to the teens then it is a no brainer. SNEN in 0.50-0.90 is a screaming buy.
http://www.sinoenergycorporation.com
CPRT, a value investor stock then an IBD high flyer and now a perpetual dog, is a definite investment in a recession (though it is interesting to note their record profits were brought about when everyone else was making record profits) since they are in essence middlemen in a market that ultimately creates monopolies without the inherent capital investments. But commercials like this of course signal a sell but it will come to a point when it's a buy again. In the meantime, it is educational to learn how they did it. And I'm thinking if there is a total upheaval from the old combustible engine to hybrids, CPRT is going to have a pick up in business.
As always, need to follow the companies and their financial performances. For instance, SNEN has cash flow problems. And CPRT currently has insiders dumping millions of dollars of shares. If CPRT gets to the teens then it is a no brainer. SNEN in 0.50-0.90 is a screaming buy.
Friday, January 23, 2009
I'm a single A
Everytime there is a question of a blue chip's credit quality, like General Electric's this morning, I keep thinking of this song.
Obama vs. Equity Markets
A friend pointed out that we haven't heard from Ben Bernanke during this week's carnage and he has a point.
The market is testing the new administration to see how it reacts to the crisis that has ensued the past year. It is ugly and scary to see the tape and hear about the growing unemployment in the US of A, but it could be to set the bar low for a durable rally. I am currently a resounding bull because, I believe, to make money in the market you have to take the other side of the trade; obviously one has to find durable reasons for ownership.
Bank nationalization can happen but if it wasn't this fear there would be another in its place. Additionally, the US is not Europe nor Britain and one cannot extrapolate trends in different geographical areas. We have had a capitalist market since the founding of this country and its burgeoning tobacco trade and it will not stop. Granted, Obama's priorities are not focused on the market but neither was Bush's at first. And according to Paul O'Neill's book, Enron was a focus early on in the administration but O'Neill let it fail so early failures in Obama's administration isn't out of the question but neither is a sustainable rally in the economy and the equity markets.
The US is a nation of investors, savers, and gamblers. These three attributes will always provide the fuel for finance and capitalism but patience is required.
I hope this helps as we go forward.
The market is testing the new administration to see how it reacts to the crisis that has ensued the past year. It is ugly and scary to see the tape and hear about the growing unemployment in the US of A, but it could be to set the bar low for a durable rally. I am currently a resounding bull because, I believe, to make money in the market you have to take the other side of the trade; obviously one has to find durable reasons for ownership.
Bank nationalization can happen but if it wasn't this fear there would be another in its place. Additionally, the US is not Europe nor Britain and one cannot extrapolate trends in different geographical areas. We have had a capitalist market since the founding of this country and its burgeoning tobacco trade and it will not stop. Granted, Obama's priorities are not focused on the market but neither was Bush's at first. And according to Paul O'Neill's book, Enron was a focus early on in the administration but O'Neill let it fail so early failures in Obama's administration isn't out of the question but neither is a sustainable rally in the economy and the equity markets.
The US is a nation of investors, savers, and gamblers. These three attributes will always provide the fuel for finance and capitalism but patience is required.
I hope this helps as we go forward.
Pfizer and trusting management
It was only yesterday when they said they were on the lookout for small acquisitions. Today's announcement concerning Wyeth again proves that management isn't always looking out for shareholder value.
But this may be the ring heard around the world concerning drug stocks. And a major buy for the lot.
But this may be the ring heard around the world concerning drug stocks. And a major buy for the lot.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Look into Aflac
Like most financials they have had some (most) of their investments turn sour. But what makes them unique is their heavy exposure to Japan and its currency. The long term chart is nothing short of spectacular and in an area of the world that has suffered a 20year recession. If the financial world recovers surely this one as well and if the financials don't there will be some left standing and this has a shot to be one of the few.
LOST
Bit disappointed that the market is weak. So wanted to recommend a different activity if one is confused. Watch Lost. Has everything the market provides: action, mystery, the unknowable and cycles.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Obama will be Kruschev according to the 51.6 year cycle
Using the 51.6 year cycle that found interesting correlations in Israeli history, I will apply it to US history.
11/8/09, Obama was elected president of the US.
51.6 years earlier,
4/3/58, Castro's revolutionary army begins its attack on Havana
51.6 year earlier,
8/29/06, nothing of note, but 6 days earlier,
8/23/06, Cuban President, Toma Estrada, requests US intervention.
AND if we subtract 7 days from 4/3/58, we get Kruschev's appointment as leader of the USSR. On Wikipedia, he is described as a reformer and changing the face of the USSR from the repressive Stalin.
SO in summary we have three ideas that may occur during Obama's administration.
1) Cuba will play a key part in this administration. 2) The change Obama is talking about is along the lines of Castro 3) The leader that Obama will be is more along the lines of Kruschev then FDR or JFK, which will lead to the idea that TAIWAN (like Cuba) will be a political showdown between China and the US and Obama in this situation WILL STAND DOWN.
Additionally, choices 2 and 3 imply that the US is moving towards Communism. Kruschev was a reformer from the repressive Stalinist USSR, so for Obama to be a reformer from Bush, there would need to be more government oversight. And choice 2 would imply that bigger government oversight will be more focused on the wealthy and thereby drive them from the US to...Asia? And this administration will definitely nationalize the banking industry. Which would imply for me, personally, to get out of Citigroup on the pop we saw today.
WORK IN PROGRESS
11/8/09, Obama was elected president of the US.
51.6 years earlier,
4/3/58, Castro's revolutionary army begins its attack on Havana
51.6 year earlier,
8/29/06, nothing of note, but 6 days earlier,
8/23/06, Cuban President, Toma Estrada, requests US intervention.
AND if we subtract 7 days from 4/3/58, we get Kruschev's appointment as leader of the USSR. On Wikipedia, he is described as a reformer and changing the face of the USSR from the repressive Stalin.
SO in summary we have three ideas that may occur during Obama's administration.
1) Cuba will play a key part in this administration. 2) The change Obama is talking about is along the lines of Castro 3) The leader that Obama will be is more along the lines of Kruschev then FDR or JFK, which will lead to the idea that TAIWAN (like Cuba) will be a political showdown between China and the US and Obama in this situation WILL STAND DOWN.
Additionally, choices 2 and 3 imply that the US is moving towards Communism. Kruschev was a reformer from the repressive Stalinist USSR, so for Obama to be a reformer from Bush, there would need to be more government oversight. And choice 2 would imply that bigger government oversight will be more focused on the wealthy and thereby drive them from the US to...Asia? And this administration will definitely nationalize the banking industry. Which would imply for me, personally, to get out of Citigroup on the pop we saw today.
WORK IN PROGRESS
Apple is up
9% after the company's quarterly report. This is short covering not the beginning of a move higher. There are so many companies that are cheap and this is not one of them. If you are not short then stay away. In five years, this company's value will be significantly lower then it is today. I cannot say share price due to inflation but if that is the case commodity related companies will surge as Apple lags.
I shorted Apple two years ago at the same price it is today and there was an options backdating scandal and now it is at the same price but this time with Steve Jobs health on the line. Two years ago began a bull market and currently we are in the throes of a bear market. With that logic, Apple is beginning its downward projectory.
One can say that Apple already tanked from the high 100s and there is no denying that, but now since the trend has changed it is a great stock to pare trade with and ride on the downside. The risk is 100% (going to its old high) and the reward is 50%. But the odds are heavily in the bears court even with the price up $13 in 24 hours.
This could be a classic fade at the open.
I shorted Apple two years ago at the same price it is today and there was an options backdating scandal and now it is at the same price but this time with Steve Jobs health on the line. Two years ago began a bull market and currently we are in the throes of a bear market. With that logic, Apple is beginning its downward projectory.
One can say that Apple already tanked from the high 100s and there is no denying that, but now since the trend has changed it is a great stock to pare trade with and ride on the downside. The risk is 100% (going to its old high) and the reward is 50%. But the odds are heavily in the bears court even with the price up $13 in 24 hours.
This could be a classic fade at the open.
Short Apple
I have been going to and fro and have not had a chance to focus on the market. But I did short Apple today, but very little. I really believe that it will go to 40 before it goes to 100.
The logic is that Apple is an innovator and that innovation runs in cycles and this may have been their top. Additionally, competition is fierce and people want a deal.
The logic is that Apple is an innovator and that innovation runs in cycles and this may have been their top. Additionally, competition is fierce and people want a deal.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Addendum to my earlier blog
Zion's Banks is down not Zion's Oil.
I typed in the wrong ticker symbol.
ZION is Zion's Bank and ZN is Zion's Oil.
Zion's Oil is up 11% today and is a wild speculative buy but not as speculative as Citigroup.
I typed in the wrong ticker symbol.
ZION is Zion's Bank and ZN is Zion's Oil.
Zion's Oil is up 11% today and is a wild speculative buy but not as speculative as Citigroup.
JP Morgan is
trading close to its long term support.
If it can hold, a bullish outcome is an understatement. If not I am probably out of Citi and JP.
If it can hold, a bullish outcome is an understatement. If not I am probably out of Citi and JP.
Modification on Natural Gas stock pick in Israel
Zion Oil and Gas opened down this morning and shouldn't have. If you are going to play the Israel natural gas find then just buy Noble Energy, NBL. It is up, but one needs to think long term. I believe it is cheap till it hits the 60s.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Definitely Scary
When England is in panic mode concerning its banks. And Warren Buffett, Wilbur Ross, and Gerald Levin are all coming out about the brink the banks have fallen from.
So no one of note is a buyer of financials such as Citigroup. The only thing that upsets me is that I look up to these fabled investors, but there is a time for the student to make a stand.
Unfortunately, I remember what happened to Luke Skywalker when he faced Darth Vader for the first time.
So no one of note is a buyer of financials such as Citigroup. The only thing that upsets me is that I look up to these fabled investors, but there is a time for the student to make a stand.
Unfortunately, I remember what happened to Luke Skywalker when he faced Darth Vader for the first time.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Israel Strikes Big in the Oil Pit
Noble Energy with its partners in Israel found a game changing natural gas discovery off the shores of Haifa.
If you want to get speculative (AS IN THIS CAN GO TO 0 BUCKS AND YOU CAN LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY!!!! CAUTION!!!! WARNING!!! BEWARE!!!) , Zion Oil, http://www.zionoil.com/ is drilling up in Haifa and this windfall discovery may spill over to it.
Yet maybe I should have put those warnings up with Citigroup since, in reality, I may in fact know more about Zions Oil then I ever will with Citigroup.
If you want to get speculative (AS IN THIS CAN GO TO 0 BUCKS AND YOU CAN LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY!!!! CAUTION!!!! WARNING!!! BEWARE!!!) , Zion Oil, http://www.zionoil.com/ is drilling up in Haifa and this windfall discovery may spill over to it.
Yet maybe I should have put those warnings up with Citigroup since, in reality, I may in fact know more about Zions Oil then I ever will with Citigroup.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
It is logical
that bank stocks have been hit hard, but the fear of nationalization and the acceptance of no dividends doesn't mean owning them is invalid.
If they were to shoot up in value, which I hoped they would, then there would be a nation of envy against the financiers and government. So, realistically, it is better to have investors build up fear in this sector and the value slowly rise under the watchful eye of everyone. There is tremendous value as there is less competition going forward and bankruptcy minimal at this point.
I am placing a 1.95 stop on my Citigroup investment which is the LT support on it.
If they were to shoot up in value, which I hoped they would, then there would be a nation of envy against the financiers and government. So, realistically, it is better to have investors build up fear in this sector and the value slowly rise under the watchful eye of everyone. There is tremendous value as there is less competition going forward and bankruptcy minimal at this point.
I am placing a 1.95 stop on my Citigroup investment which is the LT support on it.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Where's the market going today?
To the moon alice!
And quite possibly this is America's relationship with Capitalism.
And quite possibly this is America's relationship with Capitalism.
The Simpsons Economics and Proposal for Performers at Obama's inaugural
The Simpsons lampoon just about every facet of Americana, but at the end of the day our society works. The same goes with Family Guy and South Park.
Currently, economists and others are spreading pessimism and fear that is worst than any horror film like Ringu or Saw. But at the end of the day our system works.
Everyone from the autoworker to the President is basically singing, "Bye Bye Miss American Pie" by Don McLean
But remember, two negatives equal a positive. Maybe there would be uncertainty if there was some optimism and some pessimism, but, currently, there is no out and out raging Freddie Mercury belting out a bull market ballad. So I propose this German cover band to do the honors of one of the most pumped up songs in rock history.
Currently, economists and others are spreading pessimism and fear that is worst than any horror film like Ringu or Saw. But at the end of the day our system works.
Everyone from the autoworker to the President is basically singing, "Bye Bye Miss American Pie" by Don McLean
But remember, two negatives equal a positive. Maybe there would be uncertainty if there was some optimism and some pessimism, but, currently, there is no out and out raging Freddie Mercury belting out a bull market ballad. So I propose this German cover band to do the honors of one of the most pumped up songs in rock history.
Drinking coffee causes hallucinations
a new study says.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=a9S5gzERwwQE&refer=home
Another great reason to drink coffee. And again reasserts the question why some narcotics are legal and others not.
And again brings up the point, BEFORE NATIONALIZING BANKS, LETS NATIONALIZE ILLEGAL DRUGS AND BANKRUPT THE ILLEGAL DRUG TRADE.
Buy Altria/ Short Starbux (or until they start paying a dividend)
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=a9S5gzERwwQE&refer=home
Another great reason to drink coffee. And again reasserts the question why some narcotics are legal and others not.
And again brings up the point, BEFORE NATIONALIZING BANKS, LETS NATIONALIZE ILLEGAL DRUGS AND BANKRUPT THE ILLEGAL DRUG TRADE.
Buy Altria/ Short Starbux (or until they start paying a dividend)
Thursday, January 15, 2009
So it is now
nationalization instead of bankruptcy that is causing panic on Wall Street. The Fed did well running Amtrack and social security and medicare/medicaid so find it hard to believe that this will occur. Who knows, all options are on the table, but unless the trendlines are broken, I'm going to say these are panic sell offs and nothing more.
Additionally, it is hard to compete with a government business and since banking is global, many more bank institutions would need to be nationalized and the spiral would get out of hand and everyone would be working for the government except Willie Nelson.
Additionally, it is hard to compete with a government business and since banking is global, many more bank institutions would need to be nationalized and the spiral would get out of hand and everyone would be working for the government except Willie Nelson.
Am I beating a dead horse?
Citigroup didn't go under. When I bought Bear Stearns it did. Just need to tough out days like this.
My friend called me crazy
for buying Citigroup.
Is it so crazy to buy when things are on sale? And if there wasn't dreadful news then there wouldn't be a discount. It is a new era for the bank with Rubin's departure.
I believe that Robert Rubin's departing was taken as a negative, but I would say that it was positive since he sat there taking multi-million dollar compensation as the bank fell over. If there are investors that think he is getting out before it goes into the government relocation program, they are mistaken. The damage has already been done, as has his reputation.
I agree with Jim Rogers, and have mentioned, that one buys companies whose fundamentals have not been impaired, but sometimes things become so cheap they cry out to be bought.
1) Assets under management is huge (over a trillion dollars)
2) Government backing and as of now not government controlled, influenced yes, but controlled is the key word.
3) Maintained solvency in the thick of 2008 with institutional support that spanned the globe. For instance, with Prince Alwaheed's heavy involvement in this company this stock will not be taken over by the government, due to its relationship with Saudia Arabia. Just as Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac got the support of the government after it was realized the amount invested by the Chinese government.
Is it so crazy to buy when things are on sale? And if there wasn't dreadful news then there wouldn't be a discount. It is a new era for the bank with Rubin's departure.
I believe that Robert Rubin's departing was taken as a negative, but I would say that it was positive since he sat there taking multi-million dollar compensation as the bank fell over. If there are investors that think he is getting out before it goes into the government relocation program, they are mistaken. The damage has already been done, as has his reputation.
I agree with Jim Rogers, and have mentioned, that one buys companies whose fundamentals have not been impaired, but sometimes things become so cheap they cry out to be bought.
1) Assets under management is huge (over a trillion dollars)
2) Government backing and as of now not government controlled, influenced yes, but controlled is the key word.
3) Maintained solvency in the thick of 2008 with institutional support that spanned the globe. For instance, with Prince Alwaheed's heavy involvement in this company this stock will not be taken over by the government, due to its relationship with Saudia Arabia. Just as Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac got the support of the government after it was realized the amount invested by the Chinese government.
Sandisk
with Steve Jobs out, the #2 player in music, Sandisk, should start to make more headwinds into Apple's territory.
Nortel out, Cisco a winner
Apple out, Sandisk a winner.
Nortel out, Cisco a winner
Apple out, Sandisk a winner.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
To Ward Off My Demons
I bought today an ugly ugly stock called Citigroup. I admit its a trade but I am going to get into the habit of buying on panicky days.
The Valhalla Play
I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THAT THE MARKET APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR SOME AMAZING SHORT SQUEEZES.
THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY SOME OUTRAGEOUSLY CHEAP OPTIONS THAT EXPIRE FRIDAY.
YOU CAN LOSE EVERYTHING ON THEM, BUT FROM A VALUE PERSPECTIVE THE SELLERS OF OPTIONS ARE NOT WEIGHING THE RISKS TO THE UPSIDE! LIKE JPM EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT.
THIS IS A FAKE SELL OFF UNLIKE THE OTHER ONES WE HAD WHERE BANKRUPTCY COULD HAVE OCCURRED AT ANY MOMENT.
AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE SELL OFFS OF THE PAST YEAR, THEY HAPPEN FAST AND DROP HARD AND THEY NEED GOVERNMENT BAILOUTS.
THIS IS PROFIT TAKING MIXED WITH CONFUSING ECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL DATA. NOTICE THAT THE FINANCIAL NEWS HAVE NOT MENTIONED OPTIONS EXPIRATION...
THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY SOME OUTRAGEOUSLY CHEAP OPTIONS THAT EXPIRE FRIDAY.
YOU CAN LOSE EVERYTHING ON THEM, BUT FROM A VALUE PERSPECTIVE THE SELLERS OF OPTIONS ARE NOT WEIGHING THE RISKS TO THE UPSIDE! LIKE JPM EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT.
THIS IS A FAKE SELL OFF UNLIKE THE OTHER ONES WE HAD WHERE BANKRUPTCY COULD HAVE OCCURRED AT ANY MOMENT.
AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE SELL OFFS OF THE PAST YEAR, THEY HAPPEN FAST AND DROP HARD AND THEY NEED GOVERNMENT BAILOUTS.
THIS IS PROFIT TAKING MIXED WITH CONFUSING ECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL DATA. NOTICE THAT THE FINANCIAL NEWS HAVE NOT MENTIONED OPTIONS EXPIRATION...
General Electric
General Electric has an uptrend line dating back to the early 80s. Like AIG, if this uptrend is broken then a quick drop to the 2-4 range is probable.
But until that occurs, or if that occurs, the trend is your friend.
JPM and GE, two great dogs to have on your sledding team.
Nortel
Can you imagine that at one time this stock was changing hands for $900 a share? This company was eaten up by Cisco and Juniper which are both down on the day. I would expect that these two will just get larger with one major competitor now extinct and cost of entry into this business very high since companies probably won't be able to borrow like they used to nor issue more shares as well.
Nortel had 2.66bln cash, and 4.49bln debt. But the driver was negative cash flow of -61mln. They just couldn't make a profit.
Nortel had 2.66bln cash, and 4.49bln debt. But the driver was negative cash flow of -61mln. They just couldn't make a profit.
As mentioned on Friday
there is no looming bankruptcies that I can see which has caused all the major sell offs before this one.
Of course, this relentless sell off could be a foreboding of what's to come, but
1) Obama's inauguration is next week
2) Options expiration is this week
3) The macro economic news is ugly, which it should be since both corporations' and US government statistics' are overwhelmingly pessimistic, but excessively so, to lower expectations when Obama gets into office.
It's bad, but every ugly duckling has the chance of being a prince, it just needs some love.
Of course, this relentless sell off could be a foreboding of what's to come, but
1) Obama's inauguration is next week
2) Options expiration is this week
3) The macro economic news is ugly, which it should be since both corporations' and US government statistics' are overwhelmingly pessimistic, but excessively so, to lower expectations when Obama gets into office.
It's bad, but every ugly duckling has the chance of being a prince, it just needs some love.
Saytam Update
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Satyam-executives-sold-18-million/story.aspx?guid={93030DF7-32A6-4366-9EDC-FC864592CA88}
This article implies that these executives scored by selling their share before the collapse of the company. According to the article it was 1.8 million dollars and appears insignificant if one considers the multi billion dollar market cap the company had and the salary and stock options employees had as well.
This is an article to talk you out of owning these cheap shares. I admit that I am waiting for it to break a dollar then I am going to buy a few shares and just see since this is pure gambling without an in depth analysis of the situation. But still, the odds are better than Vegas and exercises the mind more. Some people pay for those overpriced mind exercise books, I on the other hand, put it on an Information Service companies in a country that I have never been and their annual report a mystery.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Silver
had that panic sell off on Monday and should at least have a relief rally. And the market may have based today and should have a nice rally tomorrow and, if not, by Friday.
I bought Cisco and CA and Newmont.
The Gall
"S&P affirms U.S. AAA rating, but says risks to the country's top sovereign rating have increased "noticeably" since September. S&P's "reasonable worst-case scenario" sees net general government debt rising from its 2008 level of 42% of GDP to as much as 75% by 2011"
Whose the angel here? Standard and Poors or the US government? How can the S&P responsibly rate the government and country that has given it its sustenance?
Monday, January 12, 2009
From my studying these are the days to hold tight
and buy more. But I did take my profits in precious metals today and am going to wait till the end of the day to see where they lie. These are washout days so tomorrow should be an upday. Please realize that Friday is options expiration in which I am going to lose a bundle on ID. I believe that this sell off has a lot to do with the expiration date and possibly a bunch of options were purchased with the sellers pushing the prices down to panic levels once again.
Short National Presto
On a technical analysis basis, the peak on the weekly chart was already made on 9/12/2008. On the rally that came close to closing at its all time, volume was lackluster. Yes, they make money but at what price are you going to pay for those earnings? It is at least going back to the mid 60s.
This is the positive spin on the company, but believe it has been factored into the price. No options trade on the stock and not so liquid so need to be careful on this one.
http://community.investopedia.com/news/IA/2008/National-Presto-Keeps-Popping-Along-NPK-LGF-PG1107.aspx?partner=YahooSA
Cycle III--Starting point the Yom Kippur War--It works as well.
I started with the beginning of the Yom Kippur War 10/6/1973 and used the 8.6 year cycle. I did not find the dates useful, but did, and again shockingly, using the end of the war, 10/24/1973 to find some interesting cycles. Before we begin, please notice that the date for Pope Sixtus' revocation of Jewish rights was on 10/22/1586--which is 387 years. If we take Martin Armstrong's cycles: adding the 309.6 cycle+51.6 cycle+3 8.6 cycles (3*8.6) we also get 387 years! And what is surprising as well is that we get close to the Fibonnacci number of .382 (1-0.618). You can go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonnacci to read about him.
10/24/1973--Yom Kippur War Ends. I picked this war, because of its shocking nature and how it caught Israel by surprise and provided a tangible threat, not existential, to the existence of Israel (spelled differently, Isreal).
8.6 years later we get the Falkland Wars between Argentina and the UK. And Israel withdrawing from the Sinai on 4/26. So we have a confluence of PEACE and WAR.
5/31/1982--6 days later, Lebanon War starts, error of +6 days
1/5/1990--1 day before, the UN condemns Israel's treatment of the Palestinians. And 6 days later US congress approves the first Iraq War. Either -1 error, or once again a +6 day error.
Here again we see PEACE in regards to Israel, but WAR in regards to the Anglo interests.
8/12/1999--2 days before, a terrorist attack a Jewish center in Los Angeles, CA. 3 months before Ehud Barak was elected to complete the PEACE process yet this horrible event occurred. 5 days before, 8/7/1999, Chechen guerrillas invade a Russian republic, triggering a small WAR. In each cycle, we have a world power involved in a war. And to be consistent, +6 days leads to no significant event. But +5 days has Turkeys devastating 7.6 earthquake. And +7 days, has a major protest calling for Milosevic resignation.
2/19/2008--6 day later, Israel attacks Gaza in what, at the time, was the most intense airstrike since 2005 (a 2.15 yr cycle)
The WAR in Iraq continues, and the PEACE after withdrawal from Gaza didn't occur.
So currently my analysis is that a consistent +6 day delay in the time cycle, which I cannot explain currently and a consistent contrast between war and peace. This cycle doesn't have the 2nd Lebanon war, but the 2/19/2008 Gaza strike was definitely a prelude to the +2 week campaign in Gaza currently which as mentioned in the previous cycle was called on the day, a very significant event. The cycle definitely shows concurrent and parallel waves between the Western world and Israel; as well as the different standards the world conducts its business and demands of Israel. And one can argue, has the world really changed if we replace the Catholic church with the United Nations? I mention it only in relation to the data provided.
10/24/1973--Yom Kippur War Ends. I picked this war, because of its shocking nature and how it caught Israel by surprise and provided a tangible threat, not existential, to the existence of Israel (spelled differently, Isreal).
8.6 years later we get the Falkland Wars between Argentina and the UK. And Israel withdrawing from the Sinai on 4/26. So we have a confluence of PEACE and WAR.
5/31/1982--6 days later, Lebanon War starts, error of +6 days
1/5/1990--1 day before, the UN condemns Israel's treatment of the Palestinians. And 6 days later US congress approves the first Iraq War. Either -1 error, or once again a +6 day error.
Here again we see PEACE in regards to Israel, but WAR in regards to the Anglo interests.
8/12/1999--2 days before, a terrorist attack a Jewish center in Los Angeles, CA. 3 months before Ehud Barak was elected to complete the PEACE process yet this horrible event occurred. 5 days before, 8/7/1999, Chechen guerrillas invade a Russian republic, triggering a small WAR. In each cycle, we have a world power involved in a war. And to be consistent, +6 days leads to no significant event. But +5 days has Turkeys devastating 7.6 earthquake. And +7 days, has a major protest calling for Milosevic resignation.
2/19/2008--6 day later, Israel attacks Gaza in what, at the time, was the most intense airstrike since 2005 (a 2.15 yr cycle)
The WAR in Iraq continues, and the PEACE after withdrawal from Gaza didn't occur.
So currently my analysis is that a consistent +6 day delay in the time cycle, which I cannot explain currently and a consistent contrast between war and peace. This cycle doesn't have the 2nd Lebanon war, but the 2/19/2008 Gaza strike was definitely a prelude to the +2 week campaign in Gaza currently which as mentioned in the previous cycle was called on the day, a very significant event. The cycle definitely shows concurrent and parallel waves between the Western world and Israel; as well as the different standards the world conducts its business and demands of Israel. And one can argue, has the world really changed if we replace the Catholic church with the United Nations? I mention it only in relation to the data provided.
Cycles Part II
To follow up on the cycle beginning with Herzl's publication, Martin A Armstrong found a larger cycle of 309 years. If we subtrace 2/14/1896 by 309.6 years, we get 7/18/1586.
In that year, on 10/22/1586, Pope Sixtus revokes prior Pope Gregory's permission for Jews to reside in Papal states and to print the Talmud. As stated before, this cycle claims Israel's sovereignty and how it slowly progressed. Just as Jews weren't allowed to reside basically in Europe, nor print its treasured texts, Herzl did both.
In that year, on 10/22/1586, Pope Sixtus revokes prior Pope Gregory's permission for Jews to reside in Papal states and to print the Talmud. As stated before, this cycle claims Israel's sovereignty and how it slowly progressed. Just as Jews weren't allowed to reside basically in Europe, nor print its treasured texts, Herzl did both.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Sopranos Season 5, Espisode 5
I was listening to this dialogue between Cristopher and Tony over whether he did or didn't have an intimate relationship with Adrianna, Cristopher's fiance.
It reminds me of the dialogue we, the citizens, are having with the Treasury and Federal Reserve, in relationship to the dollar.
Cristopher: "So this is my fault now?"
Tony:"You should've married her two years ago. "
Cristopher:"Everybody know you've been the biggest cooze hound around the past 4 or 5 years. Your midlife crisis. You'd _____ a catcher's mitt.
Tony:"On everything I hold sacred, on my children, there's nothing going on between me and Adrianna."
You can mix and match the metaphors, but believe Cristopher says it best. Say it aloud with a Bronx accent and in the shower when no one is watching.
It reminds me of the dialogue we, the citizens, are having with the Treasury and Federal Reserve, in relationship to the dollar.
Cristopher: "So this is my fault now?"
Tony:"You should've married her two years ago. "
Cristopher:"Everybody know you've been the biggest cooze hound around the past 4 or 5 years. Your midlife crisis. You'd _____ a catcher's mitt.
Tony:"On everything I hold sacred, on my children, there's nothing going on between me and Adrianna."
You can mix and match the metaphors, but believe Cristopher says it best. Say it aloud with a Bronx accent and in the shower when no one is watching.
These are my thoughts as to why gold should be owned, not bought for investment or speculative purposes
From the point of common sense and speaking as a Gringo, the US dollar is manna from heaven. Unfortunately for the naysayers of gold, there is a concept of "don't rain on my parade." Bull Markets go unnoticed or unliked by most, until the end of one, as Richard Rusell keeps mentioning. Second, Gold is a commodity that people save as insurance not as an investment such as the Dow, which therefore leads to a false comparison, as most people make. Third , Gold has been regaining its luster from India, the Middle East, China, and individual investors, as shown by the the holdings of the GLD etf. Fourth , Gold speaks the universal language that everyone can understand when global currencies have been very volatile of late. Fifth, as GATA.org brought to the public's attention, there is a shortage of government gold as it has been leased for several years. When the need to replenish their government stocks is recognized, it will create a short aqueeze on the metal. Already there has been rumblings of Gordon Brown's selling of half of Britain's gold in the late 90s, as proof. Sixth, a key argument for not owning gold is that it doesn't pay an interest rate, well, bank deposits don't either with Fed lowering rates to the 0 mark. It wasn't that long ago (Oct, Nov) that real fear of bank failures crept into our consciousness, so again, I ask, how much is good insurance worth and not the type you buy at AIG!
In conclusion, gold prices do not need to go up, but the fact remains, in this market environment, if gold goes down significantly then all assets should depreciate likewise. And I don't think anyone wants to see that, except maybe the people that like to hear Obama use the word sacrifice.
In conclusion, gold prices do not need to go up, but the fact remains, in this market environment, if gold goes down significantly then all assets should depreciate likewise. And I don't think anyone wants to see that, except maybe the people that like to hear Obama use the word sacrifice.
1+1+1=3
I write this on Sunday as I see
1) A news report that mentions Bush put his foot down when Israel wanted to strike Iran in 2008. (I ask myself why mention it now after 2 weeks of the Gaza conflict)
2) Russia refuses to restart natural gas supplies
3) Turkey thwarts coup
All are linked to petrol prices. I cannot see how petrol prices will be down on Monday with these news tidbits in front of us, but knowing market logic the prices will be down 10-15%.
Of course, as Bernard Baruch says, 1+1 always =2
And in this case, 1+1+1=3
It just takes time.
1) A news report that mentions Bush put his foot down when Israel wanted to strike Iran in 2008. (I ask myself why mention it now after 2 weeks of the Gaza conflict)
2) Russia refuses to restart natural gas supplies
3) Turkey thwarts coup
All are linked to petrol prices. I cannot see how petrol prices will be down on Monday with these news tidbits in front of us, but knowing market logic the prices will be down 10-15%.
Of course, as Bernard Baruch says, 1+1 always =2
And in this case, 1+1+1=3
It just takes time.
I haven't heard from my friend for awhile (like 6 months)
but he did respond to my obscure Gamestop reference in my blog, so he takes the time to listen. I hope I can return the favor as well. And must remember to listen to people, as well, and not just blog over everyones thoughts, since every idea is valid and has merit, but as in all things, it's the timing!!!!!
Friday, January 9, 2009
Saytam Pop
Every trader knows that stocks like this go out of business or pop mind numbingly, look at General Growth Properties as it teetered on bankruptcy. But here are some factors in Saytam's favor as opposed to Enron which it is compared to.
1) Minimal debt
2) Cash, just not as much as before
3) Customers
4) Mass fear
5) No California energy short squeeze
6) The family were and are large shareholders and are not running a ponzi scheme like the New Yorkers were.
Another player is going to come in buy the company at a slight premium or possibly a larger one because:
1) For India and its capital markets to save face, bankruptcy, I don't believe is an option. Because who knows if this activity is spread throughout the Indian corporate structure.
2) Customers want stability, so if someone financially healthier steps into buy then the customers are more likely to stay.
3) I view this more like Constellation Energy when EdF and Berkshire bid on a thriving enterprise.
And just FYI, and am not an angel since I have been long out of this short, recommended shorting it at $28. I used a point and figure chart and it had beautiful descending highs which screamed to be shorted, but the trick was riding the trend towards the end and that end is now.
And as Joe Granville says, "At these prices its either going out of business or has to bought."
Friday's Market
If you haven't turned off the computer these past, I think, 7 Fridays then you saw some great rallies into the close on Friday. So, first, the trend is your friend. But even the Celtics and the Lakers lose occassionally.
2) The market first sold off on investment institution bankruptcies or fear thereof, the market then sold off as it was questionable whether the government was indeed going to finance a bailout, and then the market sold off on the question whether GM, Chrysler, of Ford was going to file for bankruptcy before the government helps stem off massive blue collar layoffs. On all these accounts, the markets went higher after these fears. Government data does not move markets or at least I don't believe in such things, but almost tangible fear does.
3) Obama's swearing in is coming up and the idea of catastrophe beforehand is absurd (though Reagan had the hostages to deal with). Markets rise on a wall of worry.
4) Banks didn't participate in the past week's rally and can be 1) foreboding omen 2) just the big players hedging their bets (or in plain speak-waiting), until whatever signal they are looking for gives "the all clear" 3) more action in the commodity stocks and thereby less money going to financial institutions 4) or traders shaking out the weak hands before the sector starts to rally.
So if the market does sell off into the close it may be an opportunity like Wednesday was for a healthy rally Monday or Tuesday of next week. But must look for companies, as Jim Rogers keeps repeating, with fundamentals that haven't been impaired and at what price are you going to pay for it. And they are usually "cheap" on down days.
Look at Gamestop. I bought on Tuesday on Best Buys rally, then saw it sell of 1.50 on Thursday, but preceded to see it rip 3 bucks on Thursday. But then again, JP Morgan sold off. So in the end, even. But that's better than losing and as one makes good decisions it should reflect in one's performance as well.
JP Morgan
On a monthly chart, no volume, one can see a panic retest of the lows set on 10/31/2002.The time to buy, as we have seen, is on days when stocks are on sale and JPM has been on sale all week.
The stop on this would be follow through on this sell off of $19.69
Of course, like we saw with so many financials, stops appear meaningless when they drop to $2 in the morning.
Just those days are so 2008, these days stocks are more likely to pop and when this year is over I want to be known as the king of PoP!
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Who has it backwards?
Nader's journal rated Constellation Energy as the worst corporation in America for its promotion of new nuclear plants in this country.
http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2008/12/29/daily29.html?ana=yfcpc
It is important to know the opinions of people who do not agree with you and he certainly does not. Ultimately, I believe, people like him do not want nuclear energy since it relates to nuclear weapons, but that is the same thing as saying to outlaw knives since they can be used as a weapon as well.
Their arguments are valid if we look at the past, but not to the US present situation in relationship to the world's growth. Remember no new technology or way of conducting business has ever, to my knowledge, been warmly embraced by the establishment and this is no different.
But it makes an investor like me worry and of course check and recheck his facts, hopefully, daily.
http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2008/12/29/daily29.html?ana=yfcpc
It is important to know the opinions of people who do not agree with you and he certainly does not. Ultimately, I believe, people like him do not want nuclear energy since it relates to nuclear weapons, but that is the same thing as saying to outlaw knives since they can be used as a weapon as well.
Their arguments are valid if we look at the past, but not to the US present situation in relationship to the world's growth. Remember no new technology or way of conducting business has ever, to my knowledge, been warmly embraced by the establishment and this is no different.
But it makes an investor like me worry and of course check and recheck his facts, hopefully, daily.
MO
is an interesting stock or at least its price moves, which appear unpredictable. It is definitely playing chicken with these 5-7 cent range days, but it has held up in the 14-15 range, and though I am investing with the expectation of some upside fireworks, I will have to accept the fact of a decline, which these possum days may lead to.
But I'm still a buyer of cheap options on this company; especially on down days.
But I'm still a buyer of cheap options on this company; especially on down days.
Today is a tremendous day
since there are stocks that are doing phenomenally well in a broad market sell off.
GME is great but WMT isn't.
SVU and WFMI is great but KR isn't.
GS and MS are doing well and JPM and banks aren't (bad hedge here).
FLR and SGR are strong but GE and UTX are flat.
X and AKS are healthy while the autos aren't.
I believe this shows internal strength and that there are definitely buyers going into the third month of this market rally.
GME is great but WMT isn't.
SVU and WFMI is great but KR isn't.
GS and MS are doing well and JPM and banks aren't (bad hedge here).
FLR and SGR are strong but GE and UTX are flat.
X and AKS are healthy while the autos aren't.
I believe this shows internal strength and that there are definitely buyers going into the third month of this market rally.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Stryker
not only sounds like an 80s tv sitcom, but also looks like a good buy here; especially on this ugly day. I bought some earlier and it hasn't moved much.
Debt is nil. 13PE plus the cash they already have in the bank appears like a safe bet with the market rally that has already occurred and looming sell off that is occurring.
Debt is nil. 13PE plus the cash they already have in the bank appears like a safe bet with the market rally that has already occurred and looming sell off that is occurring.
When Enron collapsed did
the competitors feast off Enron's detriment?
If so, and it appears that traders are approaching at such, INFY and WIT are great buys in reference to Saytam, who is basically out of business by cooking their books.
If so, and it appears that traders are approaching at such, INFY and WIT are great buys in reference to Saytam, who is basically out of business by cooking their books.
Things I don't understand
"The recent recovery in oil is more to do with the Russia-Ukraine dispute and OPEC members tightening production than the Israel-Gaza conflict, said Jan Stuart, an analyst at UBS." (from marketwatch)
Isn't the Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas and not crude oil. I just don't understand.
Isn't the Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas and not crude oil. I just don't understand.
The Dollar
is a buy with a stop at 82.40.
There can be one test of this support.
Reasons for strength:
1) Market rise implies flow of US dollars to the US.
2) The treasuries fall imply that people were pushing the price up only temporarily for tax reasons. And with higher rates, a higher dollar!
3) Commodities are up and the dollar isn't down.
87 is my first target which would imply lower lows. If that is taken out then all systems clear for a test of 90.
There can be one test of this support.
Reasons for strength:
1) Market rise implies flow of US dollars to the US.
2) The treasuries fall imply that people were pushing the price up only temporarily for tax reasons. And with higher rates, a higher dollar!
3) Commodities are up and the dollar isn't down.
87 is my first target which would imply lower lows. If that is taken out then all systems clear for a test of 90.
Why am I writing this blog
I intend that over the course of time people will see that what I am writing has merit and that if they entrust their savings with me, I will earn them more than if they put it in a bank or invested themselves. But I will not do that until my company, as it currently is, makes profits that I am satisfied with. Or I find a job in the financial industry.
Many friends and family view that I am unemployed and am just wasting my time trading and learning the arcane knowledge known as finance. Two people close to me had been skeptical of my ideas and bought stocks such as Lehman Brothers and General Electric before one went out of business and the other dropped 50%. Both were big losses for them when they would have done far better with my investment approach, .ie making money.
As the first week of January has come to a close, my favorite sector of the economy, mining companies, have exploded higher by about 50-300%. I bought several of the names, but not in a manner that has made me wealthy, and yes, I am kicking myself for not buying more, and yes, I am finally complaining after making profits, but the fact remains: don't let others influence your hard earned place and position on this earth. You came into this world kicking and screaming and their is a reason for it...
As stated in the title of my blog, "If you have no confidence in self, you are twice defeated in the race of life. With confidence, you have won even before you have started" … Marcus Garvey
Only the ones kicking and screaming have confidence, if they didn't, they'd be the silent type and die. And that is what I hope to have learned when my former boss, after several phone calls and faces, signed a fax that will hopefully bring me success in my business dealings here in Israel.
Many friends and family view that I am unemployed and am just wasting my time trading and learning the arcane knowledge known as finance. Two people close to me had been skeptical of my ideas and bought stocks such as Lehman Brothers and General Electric before one went out of business and the other dropped 50%. Both were big losses for them when they would have done far better with my investment approach, .ie making money.
As the first week of January has come to a close, my favorite sector of the economy, mining companies, have exploded higher by about 50-300%. I bought several of the names, but not in a manner that has made me wealthy, and yes, I am kicking myself for not buying more, and yes, I am finally complaining after making profits, but the fact remains: don't let others influence your hard earned place and position on this earth. You came into this world kicking and screaming and their is a reason for it...
As stated in the title of my blog, "If you have no confidence in self, you are twice defeated in the race of life. With confidence, you have won even before you have started" … Marcus Garvey
Only the ones kicking and screaming have confidence, if they didn't, they'd be the silent type and die. And that is what I hope to have learned when my former boss, after several phone calls and faces, signed a fax that will hopefully bring me success in my business dealings here in Israel.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
New Hedge
Buy JPM/Short GS.
Give it an 8% stop, but I think this may be a failed cross over, then again, don't fight the trend!
Just when GS goes up so much, it usually rests and JPM may or may not go down when that occurs, is what I'm thinking.
Ouch and
Gold has dropped the past two days which is why it is tough to ride the tide in this market; especially when war is prevalent in the news.
One notion I have is the classic pare trade of gold and oil, which got out of hand the past few weeks, and the prices are naturally adjusting and the shorts of oil may or may not be covering.
I am shocked, but shouldn't be, that natural gas disruptions has barely made a dent in natural gas prices. If my memory serves correct, it didn't either in 2006. But besides tax loss selling, I think this is a reason that we have seen an alternative to natural gas go ballyhoo the past few day, uranium and its related ilk.
Still, Germany is committed to phasing out nuclear power and determined to forge deeper ties with "cutting off power" Russia. Makes no sense. But then again we voted for a comedian as senator.
JP Morgan should rise $9
JPM is a buy.
Yesterdays sell off, I believe, is a fake out. So once again, like MO, if the timing is off, the dividend will pay you to wait.
Now if it does indeed begin some fireworks on the upside, profit taking may be in order.
Yesterdays sell off, I believe, is a fake out. So once again, like MO, if the timing is off, the dividend will pay you to wait.
Now if it does indeed begin some fireworks on the upside, profit taking may be in order.
Monday, January 5, 2009
It's Official: Politics is a joke
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Minnesota-board-certifies-Al-Franken/story.aspx?guid={202F04B2-3882-44A4-9EEE-32881A2BC754}
Al Franken winning a Senatorial seat says a lot about Minnesota and the weight they cast on politics.
But you know they say laughter is the best medicine.
Al Franken winning a Senatorial seat says a lot about Minnesota and the weight they cast on politics.
But you know they say laughter is the best medicine.
2 thoughts
I have trading withdrawal but look at two sides of the coin here:
1) Traders back from holiday while the market has screamed higher. Slam it. But is too obvious.
2) Traders are slamming the stocks but there are buyers out there who have been waiting to put the squeeze on
GS and GM should be a tell on what is to occur today.
1) Traders back from holiday while the market has screamed higher. Slam it. But is too obvious.
2) Traders are slamming the stocks but there are buyers out there who have been waiting to put the squeeze on
GS and GM should be a tell on what is to occur today.
Financials are down
but GS and GM are up significantly.
What this tells me is that we are going to close either up 200-300 points or down 500. Because it will take a lot of strength to get GS and GM down today.
I don't believe what I am saying either, but Im trying to think out loud here.
What this tells me is that we are going to close either up 200-300 points or down 500. Because it will take a lot of strength to get GS and GM down today.
I don't believe what I am saying either, but Im trying to think out loud here.
Love Tap
Buy MO/ Short TAP
The options are cheap on MO on the long side and the puts are cheap for TAP. I mention option because of the dreaded "L" word and I don't mean the one they use on Showtime.
No it is called leverage but I believe, currently, it is acceptable.
MOMOMOMOMOMOMOMO MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just buy it.
And am I recommending it to ward off demons?
The first big loss I had at the trading firm I worked at was MO.
It was up in the morning and I kept buying all the way down and then got stopped out, while the stock preceded to be up on the day. And on the chart it looked like a happy face.
But if there is anything one learns: don't get personal or emotional. Just funny how I caught this move today.
I bought the $15 January call.
Stop is 14.96.
Target is 16, then next one is 19.
4% up (minimal projection), 3.2% on the downside
Remember if you don't gamble and just buy the stock the dividend yield is hefty and one can wait this one out.
And am I recommending it to ward off demons?
The first big loss I had at the trading firm I worked at was MO.
It was up in the morning and I kept buying all the way down and then got stopped out, while the stock preceded to be up on the day. And on the chart it looked like a happy face.
But if there is anything one learns: don't get personal or emotional. Just funny how I caught this move today.
I bought the $15 January call.
Stop is 14.96.
Target is 16, then next one is 19.
4% up (minimal projection), 3.2% on the downside
Remember if you don't gamble and just buy the stock the dividend yield is hefty and one can wait this one out.
The thought of calling my old boss
bothered me all day and I am still shaking after the call. I believe psychiatrists say to encounter ones fear: I did today. I feel the way I did when it was my last day at work: uncertain about the future. I have a feeling that several traders shorted the stocks I dissed and made outlandish profits on the way down, while I languished feeling sorry for myself. Which is one thing to learn to from the experience: you don't make a dime worrying and handle each situation and day as it comes. I read last week that Steve Jobs always tries to treat each day as his last and constantly questions himself on his accomplishments. And it makes sense, since if you beat up on yourself, there is no one to prosecute, but yourself. Or as FDR says, "there is nothing to fear but fear itself."
I have no idea what the market is going to do, but it is kind of funny that today is when everyone shows up back to work and the traders take the market down big this morning. This market really needs to rally today to show the shorts whose boss.
I shorted, but think I'm imagining things: BBBY FLR ETN...these are shorter term trades, but believe we may get a 2-5% on them. 10% risk.
I have no idea what the market is going to do, but it is kind of funny that today is when everyone shows up back to work and the traders take the market down big this morning. This market really needs to rally today to show the shorts whose boss.
I shorted, but think I'm imagining things: BBBY FLR ETN...these are shorter term trades, but believe we may get a 2-5% on them. 10% risk.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Cycle Wonderment Part I
This is about $$$ thoughts and since cycle theory plays a part in investments and is a key component to some well respected technical analysts, I am going to transpose that theory onto Israeli history and see if it bares fruit. Since the theory states or claims a universal truth then it should apply anywhere and to everything. And since there is an Israeli conflict arising in Gaza which I believe to be important, as do every Israeli I meet, lets see if cycle theory as espoused by Martin A. Armstrong can reveal some underlying logic.
Mr. Armstrong bases his predictions on a 51.6 year cycle. So after finagling a bit, this what I got and appears logical.
Herzl, the founder of Zionism and the root protagonist in this ongoing saga, published his seminal book on 2/14/1896.
51.6 years later, 9/13/1947, Nehru brings up the idea of population transfer between Pakistan and India. Which occurred between the Arab states and Israel and reinforces the fact of an Israeli homeland. 1947, in general, was a revolutionary year for Zionism as Britain withdrew sovereignty and UN Partition Plan was approved.
51.6 years later, 5/20/2000, nothing, but on 5/24/2000 Israel withdraws from Lebanon after close to two decades there. Similar to Britain's withdrawal from Palestine!
After establishing that there is a connection in the 51.6 year cycle, we will now dig deeper in Mr. Armstrong's cycle that claims there are 6 cycles, of 8.6 years, leading to the 51.6 year cycle.
Adding 8.6years to 5/20/2000 does not lead to anything publicly significant, but if we add 5/24/2000 to 8.6 year we get 12/27/2008, the exact date when Israel started its invasion of Gaza.
But for it to be significant we must have a significant date 8.6 years before 5/24/2000...Lets see...I believe it is 10/17/1991..
a) give or take a few days we get...Clarence Thomas is appointed to the Supreme Court...back to the drawing board! OR
b) At the 17-18 October 1991 Permanent-5 meeting in London, the five powers agreed to common guidelines, with global applications, for the export of conventional weapons. Significant, as Israel is a major exporter of weapons and later in the website covers the controversy of exporting weapons to China. (http://www.nti.org/db/China/conchr.htm)
Going back an additional 8.6 years we get 2/9/83, which is 2 days tardy, when Klaus Barbie was tried for war crimes. "The lead defense attorney was Jacques Vergès, who argued that Barbie's actions were no worse than the ordinary actions of colonialists worldwide, and that his trial was selective prosecution. The head prosecutor was Pierre Truche. During his trial, Barbie famously stated that: "When I stand before the throne of God I shall be judged innocent" (quoted from Wikipedia) Interestingly, France took the lead in negotiations on a cease fire that failed. Additionally, Barbie can be replaced with Hamas and especially his quote; as well as the word colonialist with nouveau tagged term: "democratically" elected state.
Granted I'm grabbing loosely here, but this has been a three hour random excursion down numbers lane. Additionally, Im having some trouble getting economic and stock market information concerning Israel, which may better help focus my research. Also, I realize that the cycle that I generated doesn't mention the Peace process, but from all definitions, except for politicians, hasn't occurred yet.
SO MY THESIS ON THE CYCLE GENERATED AND PREDICTION SET FORTH IS THAT ISRAEL, SINCE HERZL WROTE ABOUT A JEWISH STATE, IS DEFINING ITS BOUNDARIES AND RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, AND WILL SUCCEED IN THIS MISSION. AND REMEMBER KLAUS BARBIE WASN'T PLACED ON THE ELECTRIC CHAIR, BUT WAS GIVEN A LIFE SENTENCE. SO HAMAS WILL BE LOCKED AWAY IN GAZA AND WITHER AWAY IS MY INFERENCE.
to be continued ...
Mr. Armstrong bases his predictions on a 51.6 year cycle. So after finagling a bit, this what I got and appears logical.
Herzl, the founder of Zionism and the root protagonist in this ongoing saga, published his seminal book on 2/14/1896.
51.6 years later, 9/13/1947, Nehru brings up the idea of population transfer between Pakistan and India. Which occurred between the Arab states and Israel and reinforces the fact of an Israeli homeland. 1947, in general, was a revolutionary year for Zionism as Britain withdrew sovereignty and UN Partition Plan was approved.
51.6 years later, 5/20/2000, nothing, but on 5/24/2000 Israel withdraws from Lebanon after close to two decades there. Similar to Britain's withdrawal from Palestine!
After establishing that there is a connection in the 51.6 year cycle, we will now dig deeper in Mr. Armstrong's cycle that claims there are 6 cycles, of 8.6 years, leading to the 51.6 year cycle.
Adding 8.6years to 5/20/2000 does not lead to anything publicly significant, but if we add 5/24/2000 to 8.6 year we get 12/27/2008, the exact date when Israel started its invasion of Gaza.
But for it to be significant we must have a significant date 8.6 years before 5/24/2000...Lets see...I believe it is 10/17/1991..
a) give or take a few days we get...Clarence Thomas is appointed to the Supreme Court...back to the drawing board! OR
b) At the 17-18 October 1991 Permanent-5 meeting in London, the five powers agreed to common guidelines, with global applications, for the export of conventional weapons. Significant, as Israel is a major exporter of weapons and later in the website covers the controversy of exporting weapons to China. (http://www.nti.org/db/China/conchr.htm)
Going back an additional 8.6 years we get 2/9/83, which is 2 days tardy, when Klaus Barbie was tried for war crimes. "The lead defense attorney was Jacques Vergès, who argued that Barbie's actions were no worse than the ordinary actions of colonialists worldwide, and that his trial was selective prosecution. The head prosecutor was Pierre Truche. During his trial, Barbie famously stated that: "When I stand before the throne of God I shall be judged innocent" (quoted from Wikipedia) Interestingly, France took the lead in negotiations on a cease fire that failed. Additionally, Barbie can be replaced with Hamas and especially his quote; as well as the word colonialist with nouveau tagged term: "democratically" elected state.
Granted I'm grabbing loosely here, but this has been a three hour random excursion down numbers lane. Additionally, Im having some trouble getting economic and stock market information concerning Israel, which may better help focus my research. Also, I realize that the cycle that I generated doesn't mention the Peace process, but from all definitions, except for politicians, hasn't occurred yet.
SO MY THESIS ON THE CYCLE GENERATED AND PREDICTION SET FORTH IS THAT ISRAEL, SINCE HERZL WROTE ABOUT A JEWISH STATE, IS DEFINING ITS BOUNDARIES AND RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, AND WILL SUCCEED IN THIS MISSION. AND REMEMBER KLAUS BARBIE WASN'T PLACED ON THE ELECTRIC CHAIR, BUT WAS GIVEN A LIFE SENTENCE. SO HAMAS WILL BE LOCKED AWAY IN GAZA AND WITHER AWAY IS MY INFERENCE.
to be continued ...
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Two notes concerning Commercial Real Estate
IYR was down on a day it should have gone up as did the market. There are only two reason why it didn't, that I can think of:
1) A prelude for what the market is going to do next week.
2) Treasuries tanked, which increased their yield, and therefore makes IYR's questionable dividend less appealing.
If number 2 is correct then it would explain IYR's insistent market rally the past few weeks and that the index is fairly valued currently, in regard to its risk/reward element, and will trade off treasury moves.
Of course, I would like to know why utilities don't move like that and why, in fact, they went up on Friday. Maybe they actually trade as an asset; instead of a piggybank for the rich. Or possibly they move in response to oil and natural gas prices...need to look into.
IYR yield is 8.92% (will it really pay out that much?), 15.19PE
XLU yield is 3.99% (more realistic), 11.57PE
1) A prelude for what the market is going to do next week.
2) Treasuries tanked, which increased their yield, and therefore makes IYR's questionable dividend less appealing.
If number 2 is correct then it would explain IYR's insistent market rally the past few weeks and that the index is fairly valued currently, in regard to its risk/reward element, and will trade off treasury moves.
Of course, I would like to know why utilities don't move like that and why, in fact, they went up on Friday. Maybe they actually trade as an asset; instead of a piggybank for the rich. Or possibly they move in response to oil and natural gas prices...need to look into.
IYR yield is 8.92% (will it really pay out that much?), 15.19PE
XLU yield is 3.99% (more realistic), 11.57PE
Thursday, January 1, 2009
And then there is NatGas
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-01-01-russia-ukraine-gas_N.htm
Russia has just shut of natural gas to Ukraine and as an owner of UNG, the natural gas etf, I am happy to see that someone demands payment for a fundamental commodity that has been treated like an overbalanced investment bank.
But does that mean prices will go higher after the hammering it has gotten? I would like to believe that at least someone in the world may want to own some more Btus for the winter, like people used cut down more trees for fuel - you know, just in case.
And for the stock minded, I am thinking Nabors (which was up surprisingly on Wednesday), Nisource or Williams Co. as natural (gas) plays.
Russia has just shut of natural gas to Ukraine and as an owner of UNG, the natural gas etf, I am happy to see that someone demands payment for a fundamental commodity that has been treated like an overbalanced investment bank.
But does that mean prices will go higher after the hammering it has gotten? I would like to believe that at least someone in the world may want to own some more Btus for the winter, like people used cut down more trees for fuel - you know, just in case.
And for the stock minded, I am thinking Nabors (which was up surprisingly on Wednesday), Nisource or Williams Co. as natural (gas) plays.
Mr. Armstrong, not the one that landed on the moon,
but the one that landed in jail, has written a 77page treatise on the economic turmoil that has and is occurring in the world.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2008/11/martin-armstrongs-new-essay-its-just-time.html
Many people respect his thoughts and, before I stopped subscribing (possibly a mistake), recall that Robert Prechter dedicated one of his newsletters to his work.
Usually the type of information that someone like Mr. Armstrong communicates is usually free and considered heretical or is very expensive, in high demand, and known as revealing.
I bring it to your attention to make up your own mind and exercise it as well.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2008/11/martin-armstrongs-new-essay-its-just-time.html
Many people respect his thoughts and, before I stopped subscribing (possibly a mistake), recall that Robert Prechter dedicated one of his newsletters to his work.
Usually the type of information that someone like Mr. Armstrong communicates is usually free and considered heretical or is very expensive, in high demand, and known as revealing.
I bring it to your attention to make up your own mind and exercise it as well.
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