Picking up on the theme that I brought up yesterday, I had an addendum.
1990. Clinton was an unknown Arkansas governor known for his pleasant demeanor. Now we have Mike Huckabee, who I don't think is that well known, but sure handles himself well in the debates.
Hillary is similar to George Bush who was inheriting Ronald Reagan's good name; just not his surname.
And Ron Paul is taking over Ross Perot's mantle as concerned citizen turned politician.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Cramer reliving the 90s
It's funny the market is behaving like 1990. And the elections are proceeding the same way!
We have Ron Paul instead of Ross Perot and we have Hillary Clinton instead of Bill.
History rhymes.
As does good poetry?
We have Ron Paul instead of Ross Perot and we have Hillary Clinton instead of Bill.
History rhymes.
As does good poetry?
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Wow!
Today when you are rooting for the visiting team (bear market) and the home team lights up the scoreboard makes you feel demoralized. But its one game and as Yogi Berra might have said "one game doesnt make a season!"
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
BearStearns downgrades NovaGold
after a 50% drop of the stock. Talk about timing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=NG
Just a bit of info for this company. They are conservative and well run and like their independence. Seldom are there 2 properties in a junior's portfolio that has great chances of success. So this stock dropped but is probably a great buying opportunity if one believes the long term projection of gold and silver is much higher. It is also revealing of the cost to build a mine sui generis. All these small cap stocks and even the larger ones tout their potential. Well, here NG has great potential but we now know the cost and it is expensive. Unlike, BHP which is blowing 12bln dollars for one mine, Teck and Nova cannot bet it all on one mine, see commodities go down hill, and then be forced to sell the mine at a ridiculous level.
Just wait and see where the dust settles but this is, pardon me Bear Stearns, a screaming buy. I'm interested to see how Nova's directors handle their pay package. If they give themselves bonuses or lower their options price, I would say get out. Lets see how responsible they are.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=NG
Just a bit of info for this company. They are conservative and well run and like their independence. Seldom are there 2 properties in a junior's portfolio that has great chances of success. So this stock dropped but is probably a great buying opportunity if one believes the long term projection of gold and silver is much higher. It is also revealing of the cost to build a mine sui generis. All these small cap stocks and even the larger ones tout their potential. Well, here NG has great potential but we now know the cost and it is expensive. Unlike, BHP which is blowing 12bln dollars for one mine, Teck and Nova cannot bet it all on one mine, see commodities go down hill, and then be forced to sell the mine at a ridiculous level.
Just wait and see where the dust settles but this is, pardon me Bear Stearns, a screaming buy. I'm interested to see how Nova's directors handle their pay package. If they give themselves bonuses or lower their options price, I would say get out. Lets see how responsible they are.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Paladin
My friend listened to Paladin's conference call and I lost sleep thinking about not owning this stock. Which I guess is the only reason to own stocks in this environment.
Paladin will be bought out.
The Game Plan
The market will rally but don’t let it fool you.
Historically the Fed is inclined to bail out big financial institutions who are shareholders of the FED (not us)
This will aggravate the value of the dollar. The swiss franc FXF and the Japanese yen FXY will benefit.
I don’t believe the Euro will, because this is a global credit crunch and the euro bank will have to lower rates (the swiss and yen rates are close to 0!)
As a result of devaluation of currencies gold and silver will shine like the sun on a nice hot day. GLD and SLV
Oddly, I strongly believe the US dollar will rally in relation to the EURO and POUND as a result of these two countries
horrible real estate issues and the resulting lowering of their interest rates.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Feelings
Today I finally finished the second part to AmericanTheocracy. The book quotes a critic that mentions Americans want and need devastation to feel closer to God.
It's an interesting comment considering what we see on TV but also something fundamentally different between gambling and investing.
In gambling there is a certain rush, a certain feeling one gets that has nothing to do with reality.
While investing, you put in your time of research and have expectations of a satisfactory return.
It's an interesting comment considering what we see on TV but also something fundamentally different between gambling and investing.
In gambling there is a certain rush, a certain feeling one gets that has nothing to do with reality.
While investing, you put in your time of research and have expectations of a satisfactory return.
Friday, November 23, 2007
NaturalGas
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/
free/ww3/062303_nat_gas_crisis.html
This sums up my bullishness on this commodity.
My DUG/UNG pare trade has worked awfully but maintain that
it should kick in soon.
UNG can be bought, and to pay you to wait, sell options on it.
As for DUG, I don't think oil will decouple from the economy so oil should be sold here not bought.
DUG is an etf that shorts crude oil for you. UNG is an etf that owns natural gas futures.
free/ww3/062303_nat_gas_crisis.html
This sums up my bullishness on this commodity.
My DUG/UNG pare trade has worked awfully but maintain that
it should kick in soon.
UNG can be bought, and to pay you to wait, sell options on it.
As for DUG, I don't think oil will decouple from the economy so oil should be sold here not bought.
DUG is an etf that shorts crude oil for you. UNG is an etf that owns natural gas futures.
A thought and a hedge
Everyone is concerned about the dollar; including countries whose currency is linked to the US. Several of these countries are facing inflation because the dollar link doesn't reflect the strength in their economy.
I'm thinking of 2 now: China and the UAE.
Here is the hedge. If the dollar tanks, falls, panics then so does the Chinese and UAE currency, but since the currencies are artificially low an immediate decoupling will shoot these currencies immensely higher.
If the dollar rallies then logically so will these currencies in relationship to the Euro.
So this is what you call a win-win.
I'm thinking of 2 now: China and the UAE.
Here is the hedge. If the dollar tanks, falls, panics then so does the Chinese and UAE currency, but since the currencies are artificially low an immediate decoupling will shoot these currencies immensely higher.
If the dollar rallies then logically so will these currencies in relationship to the Euro.
So this is what you call a win-win.
Monday, November 19, 2007
What to do?
I have a lot of concerns but when things are going smoothly, who has time to think?
So these times that test men's will are actually positive experiences though painful.
Think about your successes and failures something will make ago of it all.
So these times that test men's will are actually positive experiences though painful.
Think about your successes and failures something will make ago of it all.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
I do like though
Mr.Cramer talking trash about Private Equity Companies such as: Fortress, Blackrock, and Cerberus.
But on Fast Money they talked trash about gold. "It has no use!" "It's only a trading vehicle!"
This is what they are missing and what Mr.Cramer is ranting about...
KEEP IT HONEST
and gold keeps governments honest.
Gold has the same amount of use as the judicial department which keeps a system of checks and balances on our activities. Judging by Mr. Gonzalez, we have the same regard for rule of law as we do of the universal currency gold. And for that matter, Mr. Cramer who calls the big boys out on their misdemeanours.
SO IM LONG RULE OF LAW, GOLD AND MR. CRAMER.
But on Fast Money they talked trash about gold. "It has no use!" "It's only a trading vehicle!"
This is what they are missing and what Mr.Cramer is ranting about...
KEEP IT HONEST
and gold keeps governments honest.
Gold has the same amount of use as the judicial department which keeps a system of checks and balances on our activities. Judging by Mr. Gonzalez, we have the same regard for rule of law as we do of the universal currency gold. And for that matter, Mr. Cramer who calls the big boys out on their misdemeanours.
SO IM LONG RULE OF LAW, GOLD AND MR. CRAMER.
UraniumOne
The stock should have been sold when reports of a delay at their operating mine in Khazakstan was reported. Now I believe this is one of the few uranium miners where value can be placed along with the share price.
First, if someone makes a bid for this stock it doubles over night due to the fact that shareholders are the stronger hands currently and not the speculators who I bet are net short.
First, if someone makes a bid for this stock it doubles over night due to the fact that shareholders are the stronger hands currently and not the speculators who I bet are net short.
Market players drove the price up of Uranium One's stock to keep the acquisitions of UrAsia and EnergyMetal and US Energy's uranium assets at a strong level since UraniumOne issued shares in all the purchases. Now insiders on these deals are selling their shares and driving the price down. The same can be said for the entire industry from my perspective so more mergers can be done at a good value and not nose bleed levels; since these stocks will start to pop like popcorn when consolidation begins to happen in earnest.
This is a company like Paladin that pooled investors resources and built a world class operation.
Monday, November 12, 2007
You know
Two things occurred to me today.
1) Why do I give people respect before they earn it? Mr. Cramer was given respect by me since he was a successful hedge fund manager and his seemingly correct predictions. I will continue to read his thoughts since they are helpful and brings out thoughts that I never had, but the seeming ease where he does the thinking for you is dangerous and leads to trouble. Read him only if you will follow it up with research and thoughts of your own.
2) Cramer's continual line "bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered" is true, but only today did I realize the inherent reality of that statement! For three years I made money in the secular commodity bull market and preceded to lose a lot of it shorting the market because I was a hog, trying to have it both ways. There is a catch term now called "market neutral" where a fund makes money in both up and down markets and WSJ questions the performance of such funds. I believe you have to take a position and stick with it because markets move in waves: when the bull market ebbs, the bear flows which would lead to the profound statement: WATER is never neutral! maybe for ph readings but that is if you can find PURE water but I highly doubt it.
1) Why do I give people respect before they earn it? Mr. Cramer was given respect by me since he was a successful hedge fund manager and his seemingly correct predictions. I will continue to read his thoughts since they are helpful and brings out thoughts that I never had, but the seeming ease where he does the thinking for you is dangerous and leads to trouble. Read him only if you will follow it up with research and thoughts of your own.
2) Cramer's continual line "bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered" is true, but only today did I realize the inherent reality of that statement! For three years I made money in the secular commodity bull market and preceded to lose a lot of it shorting the market because I was a hog, trying to have it both ways. There is a catch term now called "market neutral" where a fund makes money in both up and down markets and WSJ questions the performance of such funds. I believe you have to take a position and stick with it because markets move in waves: when the bull market ebbs, the bear flows which would lead to the profound statement: WATER is never neutral! maybe for ph readings but that is if you can find PURE water but I highly doubt it.
I'mOut!
Sometimes you have to be off the train to be on the train. And that is what I'm doing today by putting everything into cash to see what's going on.
I need to be impartial in order to invest wisely which I don't know if I have or haven't the past year so now I'm going to reassess my outlook for the rest of the year and next.
I need to be impartial in order to invest wisely which I don't know if I have or haven't the past year so now I'm going to reassess my outlook for the rest of the year and next.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
"No more drama in my life"
What I hate about weekends is the loss of rhythm from the week and the opportunity to squander your free time with unnecessary items or be bothered by people or events that ruin your train of thought.
You have to take responsibility for your actions but they are heavily influenced by your environment and you have to realize that in order to counteract the negative effect.
It's those small gaps that separated the champions from the chumps.
As Mary Blige puts it "No more drama in my life" and especially on the weekends.
You have to take responsibility for your actions but they are heavily influenced by your environment and you have to realize that in order to counteract the negative effect.
It's those small gaps that separated the champions from the chumps.
As Mary Blige puts it "No more drama in my life" and especially on the weekends.
Another thing I noticed as I pondered
over a bottle of beer and darts was that when you don't take things too seriously or to heart better things happen.
So when you trade or invest, you dabble until you get the position desired. But if you go in all at once or leverage to an uncomfortable amount, you don't feel too good afterwards.
So when you trade or invest, you dabble until you get the position desired. But if you go in all at once or leverage to an uncomfortable amount, you don't feel too good afterwards.
On Friday afternoon
I went long the Nasdaq, expecting a bounce which I would carry through to Monday; instead it went to the low for the day! I even averaged my cost down figuring I'm buying it cheap.
Now I'm nervous come Monday morning and not exactly sure how to handle this predicament.
Friday afternoons aren't the best times to take a new position but to consolidate previous ones since there is a two day lag before trading begins again.
Now I'm nervous come Monday morning and not exactly sure how to handle this predicament.
Friday afternoons aren't the best times to take a new position but to consolidate previous ones since there is a two day lag before trading begins again.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Ali vs. Foreman
Ali had the famous saying "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee" Something akin to hedge funds moving in and out of profitable opportunities.
While Foreman just stood there taking hits waiting for his chance to pounce, something akin to Warren Buffet's approach.
Ali is currently suffering from brain damage while Foreman has had two successful careers after boxing: the grill and as a preacher.
Ali gets all the glory but reward goes to Foreman. Just a notion, nothing else but it says something about being patient and waiting for your chance!
While Foreman just stood there taking hits waiting for his chance to pounce, something akin to Warren Buffet's approach.
Ali is currently suffering from brain damage while Foreman has had two successful careers after boxing: the grill and as a preacher.
Ali gets all the glory but reward goes to Foreman. Just a notion, nothing else but it says something about being patient and waiting for your chance!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
What to do today.
Today I dont think one should be short since that trade was Friday or Monday. Today we saw horrible discrepencies in performance between the Nasdaq and the market. And the overperformance of the small cap indexes like the Russell2000.
Things go back to their norm so long QQQQ and SP500 and short the Russell2000. This may not happen overnight but the thought that small caps are stronger and have healthier balance sheets than the big cap stocks are absurd and the reason for these sell offs are liquidity driven which hurts smaller names than bigger one.
Things go back to their norm so long QQQQ and SP500 and short the Russell2000. This may not happen overnight but the thought that small caps are stronger and have healthier balance sheets than the big cap stocks are absurd and the reason for these sell offs are liquidity driven which hurts smaller names than bigger one.
The market was up for four years and I remained bearish
Now fear and all that nonsense is pervasive and I'm seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
I always wanted to know...
How the market can react so quickly to responses by the Fed before actually giving it much thought. Their words are couched in such 'obfuscating' language that it renders their statements almost meaningless. So what are better guide post for observing? and not just what the markets reactions are since it could be just a head fake.
Today the market is ugly but it is set up for a nice juicy rally by Friday afternoon. And when the maket rallies...hi ho silver! head for dem hills!
Today the market is ugly but it is set up for a nice juicy rally by Friday afternoon. And when the maket rallies...hi ho silver! head for dem hills!
African banks over Citigroup
People are buying bank stocks all over the world to capture the growth in that country. They are scooping up shares in African nations which by the geography is speculative and I don't think their dividend rates are that generous so I would go with the ultimate gamble in the wildest region and buy IBI.
It is in the nation of Uganda which has been overlooked due to horrible mismanagement by the differing governments over the years. Uganda will want to be a part of the bigger picture if their African brethren are reaping reward of capitalism. If that is the case, IBI presents a strong investment opportunity due to its strong gold and uranium portfolio in the country.
They have the potential of having recurring revenue if Rio Tinto decides to progress with their Vermiculite mine in the country.
4 cents share. No one is going to recommend it but fortunes come to the brave.
It is in the nation of Uganda which has been overlooked due to horrible mismanagement by the differing governments over the years. Uganda will want to be a part of the bigger picture if their African brethren are reaping reward of capitalism. If that is the case, IBI presents a strong investment opportunity due to its strong gold and uranium portfolio in the country.
They have the potential of having recurring revenue if Rio Tinto decides to progress with their Vermiculite mine in the country.
4 cents share. No one is going to recommend it but fortunes come to the brave.
Gold and Silver Emerge
Last year when I was trading in New York, RIMM and CSCO wouldn't stay down even though everyone thought they would eventually. It is a lesson in letting the lion roar and I believe it is.
People are just as skeptical on precious metals, as they were with tech late last year because of everyones experience of the post party atmosphere.
So the question they raise on FastMoney is relevant: "which is going to a 1000 first, google or gold?"
People are just as skeptical on precious metals, as they were with tech late last year because of everyones experience of the post party atmosphere.
So the question they raise on FastMoney is relevant: "which is going to a 1000 first, google or gold?"
Turmoil. What turmoil?
The market got hammered and a stock I like, GE, down over a dollar!
When things happen so quickly there's nothing to say, but there have been several distribution days leading to this sell off so it shouldn't come as a surprise. Now the question is if there has been a change of trend or the final shaking out before unprecedented global growth.
There are not the times to value hunt but maintain a list of your favorites until there is so much extreme pessimism, it can't help but go up.
When things happen so quickly there's nothing to say, but there have been several distribution days leading to this sell off so it shouldn't come as a surprise. Now the question is if there has been a change of trend or the final shaking out before unprecedented global growth.
There are not the times to value hunt but maintain a list of your favorites until there is so much extreme pessimism, it can't help but go up.
Monday, November 5, 2007
BKC
Today Burger King reported good numbers but went down in price. The culprit is the dilution of shares. It's unfortunate that occurred but it is a fear that I have when I invest that the share issuance is greater than the value of the company. The company itself isn't issuing new shares but insiders are selling more of their shares which will increase the float, ie shares traded.
There would have to be one hell of a reason to buy reissued companies done by private equity for this reason alone.
There would have to be one hell of a reason to buy reissued companies done by private equity for this reason alone.
Markets are going to rally
We had an ugly morning overseas which is spilling over to the US. Last week, gamblers over the weekend bet on the CEO removal at Merril and were rewarded with some great returns. Not this morning with the ouster of the CEO from CitiGroup. Traders are running the price down so they can run it up in the afternoon. Whatever the lowest point is in the morning should hold.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Anger and Jealousy
The two fearsome enemies to successful trading. That is why you need a system that keeps it impartial and help to overcome periods where these emotions overwhelm the individual. And it goes without saying that one should trade light till his personality becomes normal.
The Pakistan Hype
The parallel to Turkey is interesting how the military is actually "liberal" but when its sovereignty is threatened, as it was in Turkey and potentially in Pakistan, action needed to be taken. The same can be said in Russia, Venezuela, and Bolivia. Just these three countries seem to be malevolent as opposed to Pakistan and Turkey, even though Pakistan discreetly sold nuclear technology to threatening countries.
The main point is that Pakistan and Turkey are friends of the US and we should treat them as such and not get involved. This is not Tianemen Square nor is it a Myanmar style bloodshed.
The book "American Theocracy" touches on the fact that our politics aren't based on facts anymore but what is right and what is wrong based on morality. This is getting to be dangerous if we are to rationally deal with our friends and take action against our enemies.
Usually when these type of scare mongering occurs oil and gold go DOWN not up. Because the run up was last week which factored in this event. And the military coup isn't really a coup since Musharraf is already the leader of the army and keeps the Pakistan economy stable and where people respect the rule of law.
Now if oil and gold do go up then look out, since even more bedlam will be factored in.
The main point is that Pakistan and Turkey are friends of the US and we should treat them as such and not get involved. This is not Tianemen Square nor is it a Myanmar style bloodshed.
The book "American Theocracy" touches on the fact that our politics aren't based on facts anymore but what is right and what is wrong based on morality. This is getting to be dangerous if we are to rationally deal with our friends and take action against our enemies.
Usually when these type of scare mongering occurs oil and gold go DOWN not up. Because the run up was last week which factored in this event. And the military coup isn't really a coup since Musharraf is already the leader of the army and keeps the Pakistan economy stable and where people respect the rule of law.
Now if oil and gold do go up then look out, since even more bedlam will be factored in.
That girl you had a crush on or
as Dr. John says, "If I don't do it somebody else will"
I just came home from watching American Gangster and received a text message that said a friend of mine and an actual NYC model "hooked up" with a girl that I had a crush on.
I kept telling my friends that I had a chance with her but only to here that I'm out of my mind. That and her constant mentioning of a boyfriend that I have never seen kept me away from being aggressive, but who am I kidding, I didn't pursue it.
My heart beat a moment or two when I heard it and a feeling of disappointment came over me. I have no other way of letting out my feelings other than writing about it. And since this is a blog about finance, I will conclude with that. But I think it is self evident what I'm getting at.
If you truly believe in something, don't let it be a crush or desire and never let your friends talk you out of anything because they have no idea where you are coming from.
BECAUSE FOR GOD'S SAKE YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE YOUR HEART BEAT A MOMENT ON TWO SATURDAY NIGHT ALL ALONE!
YOU WANT TO BE SATISFIED WITH YOUR LIFE'S DECISIONS ON THIS MOST WONDERFUL OF NIGHTS.
I just came home from watching American Gangster and received a text message that said a friend of mine and an actual NYC model "hooked up" with a girl that I had a crush on.
I kept telling my friends that I had a chance with her but only to here that I'm out of my mind. That and her constant mentioning of a boyfriend that I have never seen kept me away from being aggressive, but who am I kidding, I didn't pursue it.
My heart beat a moment or two when I heard it and a feeling of disappointment came over me. I have no other way of letting out my feelings other than writing about it. And since this is a blog about finance, I will conclude with that. But I think it is self evident what I'm getting at.
If you truly believe in something, don't let it be a crush or desire and never let your friends talk you out of anything because they have no idea where you are coming from.
BECAUSE FOR GOD'S SAKE YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE YOUR HEART BEAT A MOMENT ON TWO SATURDAY NIGHT ALL ALONE!
YOU WANT TO BE SATISFIED WITH YOUR LIFE'S DECISIONS ON THIS MOST WONDERFUL OF NIGHTS.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Please go to this website
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/48736095_
hillary_clinton_senator_clinton_
addresses_licensing_proc
As you know, Hillary Clinton is running for president and she is a part of the senate hearing concerning the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Whether you agree with her or not is not important, but the concerns she raises is on many people's minds.
My argument is this:
This is very politically sensitive issue.
I don’t think anyone is completely honest in their assessments.
But there is a very big assumption that it is waste!
So the argument is over the wrong things.
What was that rambling that I did, yesterday?
Since my viewership at this point is just me, I wrote in short hand concerning the market which appears just as skeptical as I am. Not in everything (my investments) but in all others.
Today is profit taking that has gotten not out of hand considering that Citigroup has the potential of cutting its divident and then what? Something I don't want to consider.
Gold and Silver, more particularly gold, has had a great run and when profit taking occurs big percentage down days happen but it says nothing about the underlying fact that currencies around the world, especially the dollar, are getting weaker. It is only a matter of time before precious metals run up in earnest and have no pull back!
Buy silver!!!
Today is profit taking that has gotten not out of hand considering that Citigroup has the potential of cutting its divident and then what? Something I don't want to consider.
Gold and Silver, more particularly gold, has had a great run and when profit taking occurs big percentage down days happen but it says nothing about the underlying fact that currencies around the world, especially the dollar, are getting weaker. It is only a matter of time before precious metals run up in earnest and have no pull back!
Buy silver!!!
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