From a Dirty Harry movie:

This girl, Jennifer Spencer, who happens to be killing everyone who was involved in her and her sister's death, is having dinner with "Dirty" Harry Callahan who is unwittingly investigating the murders. Kind of sums our financial mess as told to an old timer, say Ron Paul?

Spencer: "I'm glad Callahan. But you're an endangered species. This is the age of lapsed responsibility and defeated justice. Today eye for an eye means only of you're caught, if ever. Then it's an indefinite postponement and settlement out of court. Does that sound profound or just boring?"

Bullish

I am not a student, only in passing, of the Great Depression, but I am appalled how people throw around that time and get everyone nervous. Yes, there is a credit and banking crisis, but if one reads closely, it has mostly to do with trust. The government is trying to amend that.

But when risk was at its highest, no one seemed to worry. Now the presidential candidates and the president have accepted the fact that we are teetering on recession. Aren't we already in one, and by that fact alone, when it is obvious to everyone, shouldn't we be getting out of one?

The only problem is as the cases with AGM, it dropped 1.80 since I bought it. And sold it. Not everything is going to go up, but the ones that do should go much higher.

McCain said 700,000 new jobs would be created by new nuc plants. The India - US pact concerning nuclear power is held up due to the financial crisis, so these two factors are putting a lid on price movement so patience is warranted.

But the current 700bln plan is bullish to my way of thinking. Also, for the dollar. But this is more contrary than anything. Gold is bullish, I believe, in non-US denominated currencies. Because as governments inflate their currencies and the US doesn't I don't think people are going to flock immediately to the US. But this is conjecture currently.

FYI AGM is a NO BUY now...

I just noticed that Berkshire Hathaway is on the no short list.
Isn't he supposed to be the man.

What gives? But that does explain the big rally in the stock.
The truth was to fade the pop on Friday of last week.

I did buy AGM and gave valid reasons for owning it, but I didnt see this:
"Farmer Mac, as government-sponsored enterprise Federal Agricultural Mortgage is known, plunged 65 percent to $5.25 since Sept. 18. The Washington-based company said Sept. 22 that its reserves may fall short of federal requirements. Farmer Mac hired a financial adviser to assist in selling assets and common and preferred stock. "

Need to deliberate. Cannot say to own it, currently

14 REASONS WHY I COULDNT KEEP MY THOUGHTS IN ORDER YESTERDAY

AGM--AND I WARN YOU!!!!! THIS STOCK CAN GO UNDER ANY TIME. BANKRUPT. KAPUT. AND LOSE ALL MONEY INVESTED. THIS IS A GAMBLE. COMPLETE. ABSOLUTE. YET I BELIEVE THEIR IS GREAT POTENTIAL IF THEY ARE ABLE TO STAY SOLVENT. MY FRIEND LIKENED IT TO A PAIR OF 6s IN POKER WHEN YOU ARE PLAYING WITH 8 OTHER PEOPLE. THE ODDS SAY YOU CAN WIN BUT NOT OVERWHELMINGLY. I DISAGREE WHICH IS WHY I AM SHARING THIS WITH YOU, MY LOYAL READERS WHOEVER THAT MAY BE...

AGM, this could be a cyclical low, in a long term bull market in agriculture.
I am studying the financials but it is going to take some time.

Here are the facts as I see them:
1) The stock moves currently along with WM. But they are not related.
2) Most of the institutions that owned the stock had to dump it due to their own financial issues
3) But, lets say they start building wind power units throughout rural areas.
Ag stays at an elevated level due to ethanol and worldwide consumption, then I would say we have a winner here.
Or railroads and power plants start to expand, it will be in rural areas. NIMBY applies.
It will raise real estate prices in a deflationary time. Limited supply, increased demand.
4) They loan to a special niche and really missed the bull market in debt. More like Mobile home communities, always a demand
5) Their all time high was a couple of years ago. Ag real estate bull market may be in infancy unlike raging prices in subprime areas.
6) They are allowed to borrow at lower rates.
7) Their financials are horrible due to debt being wildly more than their assets and the credit market is in disarray, it is the only time to get a discount.
8) They could go under but at 50mln mkt cap and over a billion in loans is what I like to call a cheap option. Low trading volume as well.
9) Additionally, most investors cannot buy stocks at such low market caps. Nor would they want to.
10) It gives us a leg up on the future.
11) 48 people work for the company so low fixed costs!!!!
12) Additionally, if they are solvent, they will begin to pay dividends again.
13) SLM and AGM have not gone broke!!! FNM FRE did. I think that is bullish. The financial bankruptcies have occurred like they did with Enron and Worldcom, and before them the tech ones. Now there will be a period of sloshing but when you least expect it BANG! asset appreciation.
14) Berkshire purchased a big stake in Goldman Sachs which appears to me that the bottoming process has started.

SHOCKING

AGM has not gone broke like its bretheren. Ironically, in the Great Depression it was the farmer's and their banks that went bust. History rhymes but doesn't repeat. If that statement is true. AGM at 5 may be the financial buy of a lifetime.

But that is speculation. The fact is agriculture is in demand and people always need loans to grow and this company is able to provide that at a lower cost due to a quasi government relationship that will probably be defined here as the credit mess starts to unwind.

OUTRAGEOUS

SNDK is down on the day because of their new product rollout of the new "cd" but most are calling "8 track" since the product seems to have no use to modern day consumers.

Who cares. It shows that they are willing to be aggressive using their proven technologies which may or may not lead to other successes.

And did someone forget their is a looming take over for the company. Yes, yahoo's deal fell apart and left a few speculators upset. And, yes, the market is quite bearish and the great depression is thrown loosely now a days. Seems to me all the more reason to buy.

Didn't Berkshire step into the financing game yesterday?

The answer to the economy is

everyone's right. The conservatives who do not want to bail out the government, to the neo cons who want to bail out financial institutions, and the Dems who want to win the election.

But it also extends to whether an institution should be run by private enterprise to one that is publicly controlled. I don't think there is a correct answer. Because any institution that is successful feeds on itself and others, ultimately. Capitalism has recently gotten unwieldy so now it is time for a breather; of course, that is hard to say since Im a raging capitalist but one has to confront the issue at hand.

And it all goes back to the founding fathers. Thomas Jefferson commented that it is healthy to have a revolution now and then.

When old models don't work, new ones come into being and dominate whether through acceptance or force!

The final hurrah?

No one mentions it but 1998 rings true. Everyone always overeacts to a crisis. And currently with the preponderance of media and the accessibility of truth, everyone has all the "answers," but I would say hogwash. And get out your money and start investing.

And I am not sure if I am a gold bug, but I would say that gold appears to be great insurance currently. That means buying a little bit just in case, and if nothing happens great! and if something does, well you have a little spending money.

Who's on First

First, let me say SHORT SQUEEZE...

As soon as everyone is washed out and options expiration comes rolling around the government reloaded their legislative juices and have now squeezed the shorts dry.

So, in essence this bear market gave it to the longs and now the bears!!!!

Someone has to be making money, but who???

I believe that answer is best summed by what the late Abbott and Costello said,

"Who's on First."

The stock market in brief...

John H. Mallory: Where there's revolotion there's confusion and when there's confusion a man who knows what he wants stands a good chance of getting it.

GROW

US Global has made its reputation on investments in the precious metals. The price of gold has gone up $110 in 2 days days while GROW has dropped from 10 to 7. Not every investment firm is going out of business; especially one with 30mln in the bank and no debt.

Basically, they had cash in excess of 100 billion dollars more than Lehman brothers who has been in business over 148 years.

I would say that as long as management is there we got a home run here. But I have been in the dog house on this one all year. We'll see but it make take awhile.

Buy Goldman at 160, Sell Goldman in 90s???

MY FRIEND WROTE THIS BUT WORTH CONSIDERING!!!

I recommend shorting to a target of 50 a share for the next 6 months.

With Goldman reporting earnings at a major discount to what it has done in the past. It's apparent that Goldman cannot escape the spector of the credit crisis even with a pristine balance sheet. Goldman has to face the fact that its earnings come from trading, consulting, IPOs, debt issuance, etc. If there is a slowdown in these areas, it means revenues, too, go with everything else.

In 2000-2003, Goldman posted EPS of 6.350, 4.260, 4.020, and 5.870. This averages to 5.125, which is what I will assume they will make over the next 4 years in this market environment. Keep in mind, they could do better or worse.

I am going to assume that the P/E that will maintain will be around 10 on average, which is a safe bet since they are currently trading at a 7 P/E. They did trade on average at 15 during 2000-2003. This market environment will be different, because the last market environment did not have the type of meltdowns we are seeing. However, I will point out a positive in that Goldman will have the ability to eventually take more market share if desires with so many of its competitors knocked out, but the newly formed competitors will be biting at its heels. Again, I feel 10 P/E is a fair average.

I want to reiterate that the average PE and EPS from 2000-2003 would suggest the share price I'm calling for in the nexxt 6 months, because simply Toll Brothers has a supply glut of homes to sell in a market that has fallen apart. We have a deep recession looming from a credit overhang, which is so apparent from the demise of Bear, Lehman, Merrill, and CountryWide. We have Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley falling 33%. Goldman could see another 50% drop from it's current price of 100 today. Everything Hank Paulson, et al. have done has done nothing to halt the crisis, except further push us to the brink of a market seize up.

Simply put a P/E of 10 against EPS of 5.125 puts you in around 50 a share. And, this is where I see Goldman headed.

At the money April 2009 puts are not worth it at this point, but keep an eye out for anything that trades under 25 at the money. Being long put spreads may be worth while at various at the money and out of the money strike combinations. Consult your option specialist for the best bang for your buck.

AIG looks like

a bottom because of its tentacle like reaches to just about everything. The thing is IF it's resolved. If not this is like World War I where all these unknown agreements come to the fore and create economic havoc as we know it today.

Maybe that is what all this wild weather is telling us, but it also states that after the wreckage, there is rebuilding.

AIG broke its trendline and is now a new company. Hank Greenberg lost 3 billion dollars of paper wealth. How does that feel? Like many great men of finance I find it hard to believe that he isn't going to go down with a whimper which it appears currently. They took away his control in the last bull market and now they are taking away his company piece by piece. It also shows how a company can grow and grow with good management, a product that is always in demand, and leverage, but it is sad to see when the party is over.

A mess everywhere and the sun is shining while you want to hide in your hole. Let someone else take care of the mess.