Friday, July 24, 2009

Natural gas is troubling

Ultimately, if the demand for gas is low and the supply high the price should and will go down. But if the demand is low then that would reflect real demand from the economy and the fact that the market has rallied in expectation of greater demand in the future should pass on to a commodity, where production has been cut as has development. So, from a long term perspective, bullish, as judged by the euphoria in global markets. The problem is who wants to wait that long and where is the price stability in this commodity.

I would argue that there is a painfully long oil and short natural gas hedge. For every spike in oil there leads to a downward one in natural gas. That is why speculator's positions are at all time highs in the short column while the commercials who realize how cheap it is have been backing the truck up and waiting. Go with the real money, but it just takes time.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Natural Gas Items

People scorned George Bush and his foreign policy, but what I see is the same.

1) Hillary Clinton getting tough (whatever that means) with Iran
2) Joe Biden supporting Georgia against Russia
3) The US supporting Ukraine in its bid for NATO membership
4) COT commercial interest is very high

Russia, to my knowledge, is a huge supplier of natural gas and the only commodity that has dogged the appreciation of everything else; even the dollar.

Russian markets have been champs in this market rally, so why can't natural gas rally from here, and significantly? Where's the premium!!!!!!!

Friday, July 10, 2009

Reasons to be short Wal Mart and Nucor

From Bloomberg:

Union Campaign

The Service Employees International Union and other labor groups are using the encyclical to try to win support from Catholic senators such as Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana for a bill that would make it easier for unions to represent workers, said Mary Kay Henry, executive vice president of the 2 million-member SEIU.

The Pope “offers a much-needed reminder that to create an economy that works for everyone it is critical to protect workers’ fundamental right to join together,” said John Sweeney, president of the 11 million-member AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. federation.

Republican Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, a Catholic, said any effort by Democrats to use the Pope’s remarks to push their agenda would fail.

Most people “would rather go to work than be on welfare,” said Boehner, 59. “We think our economic agenda will do more for Americans.”