$$$ Thoughts

Great quote from Mr. Buffett on Europe and the right to print money

2011-10-05T15:29:00.000-04:00

Now, when you get 17 countries all in a different position and none with the ability right now to issue their own currency, which is a terrible mistake. If any of you can ever issue your own currency, don't give it up. (Laughter.) If you have a printing press in your basement and it works, just keep -- don't let anybody take it away from you.

Energy war - Not in name Only

2011-09-20T02:00:00.003-04:00

I was studying yesterday and it hit me that Turkey is not upset with Israel, but, instead, wants her maritime rights where all that natural gas and possibly oil are.

Of course, you can't come right out and say it so Turkey is now supporting causes that she was once silent about.

Wars were fought over much less than what Israel possesses presently in the Mediterrannean.

A key sign would be shipbuilding and a larger navy.

Greece is the bastion of ships and they will be cheaper if the nation defaults and i don't believe they will sell to the Turks.

More good news about Uganda

2011-07-10T04:09:00.004-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/world/africa/07sudan.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=uganda&st=cse

Apparently, Uganda is a growing country that has very good relationships with its neighbors since Uganda has been actively supporting leaders in waiting as well as sending its citizens to nation build.

It's a tough part of the world as anyone knows but these type of articles do lead one to suspect that an investment in Uganda can be handsomely rewarded if these growth trends are occurring.

A good hint of that is to see my blog on top of a google search which says to me NO ONE is paying attention.

Good news for IBI: China + nuclear + Uganda + IBI = ? market value

2011-05-31T09:14:00.001-04:00

http://www.razor.ug/business/china-plans-nuclear-plant-in-uganda/

The reason why we have corporations and stocks and greed

2011-05-22T10:03:00.003-04:00

I just read on www.bloomberg.com about how Medtronic has a technology that can help parapalegics walk again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-19/paraplegic-stands-for-first-time-in-years-with-medtronic-device.html

Not everyone can be a doctor or a lawyer with a guaranteed income, so need to take risk. At the moment, many of our capitalistic impulses our purely on risk by trading and playing poker. Others, like Mr. Buffett, focus just on stocks that crashed and provide a good bargain.

But the most rewarding payoff and the one that creates mass envy is taking a risk and gamble on something that helps society and your pocketbook.

At the end of the day, that's why we have an exchange and a place to trade because a private owner's risk on new technology is just overwhelming so this is a way for one to call the shots and have others profit along with you.

On the flipside, does LinkedIn need your money now?

I will admit that this entry has ideas and may not be fully fleshed out. But hope it provides some nuggets of thought.

Also, concerning nuclear power

2011-03-14T11:04:00.002-04:00

1) BP's oil disaster devastated an entire ocean. The drillers are back in operation.
2) Two nuclear bombs on Japan didn't stop the nuclear industry
3) Chernobyl with outdated technology, incompetent Russian management and regional devastation didn't stop the industry.
4) Natural gas plant would have had a devastating impact by the tsunami

Nuclear Disaster? We have been here before

2011-03-14T03:02:00.001-04:00

Japan is currently suffering a nuclear meltdown. This, of course, would appear to the world a test case for the viability of the industry.

Please realize that a few years ago another nuclear plant "disaster" happened in Japan when radioactive coolant leaked. No one died or was effected.

Again, a couple hundred are being tested for high radioactive levels - that's it. No one died.

If Japan had a natural gas or coal plant the explosions and devastation would be great for the global news cycle.

Nuclear and the corresponding mining industry are going to be on sale today and it may be the last time in our generation that this occurs.

Don't be afraid.

Mwana Africa - one of the cheapest miners out there

2011-03-10T07:19:00.003-05:00

Mwana Africa is primarily located in Zimbabwe which is the only reason the stock is trading lower than the price that management and institutional investors paid into the company.

Why? Because the Zimbabwe government publicly announced partial nationalization of the countries resources. Should that be a big surprise after so many years of the current regime there?

I went to Mwana's website and here is a behind the napkin calculation on what an investor should be expecting concerning a return.

Gold

1) Lets says the Zimbabwe government takes a 60/40 split.

2) And the cost of extracting gold is $800/oz

3) Lets say gold stabilizes at 1100

= 300/oz profit.

4) They expect a minimum of 30,000oz per year.

So the net would be 9,000,000

The net to shareholder would be 3.6m

Just on Gold possession, that is 50m market cap/ 3.5 m = 14.3 PE

Not bad.

Nickel

1) Up to 7,000t pa Ni in concentrate

2) Cost of production approx. $6,000 / t Ni in concentrate

3) Ni is around 24,000 per ton

4) Lets say the concentrate is the low 0.40% as mentioned in presentation, Pure Nickel is 28 tons for the year

28 tons x 24,000= $672,000

Minus expense of $42,000

And comes out to $630,000

The Stakeholders get 40%, or $252,000

Now the P/E is lowered to 50 market cap/3.72 = 13.44

That's a 7.44% return minimum

And that is after the Zimbabwe government won't fully nationalize its mineral assets.

What if previous agreements will be honored?

Technology Bets

2010-11-28T14:49:00.002-05:00

This is from http://stocksthatpay.com/?p=9265

I mean is this for real? Can a house wife of man convicted by the SEC be that good of a stock picker? Only time will tell.

Speculative bet on uranium mining in Czech Republic

2010-11-05T02:18:00.004-04:00

I read in today's paper about the mining town and nuclear industry in the Czech Republic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/05/business/global/05uranium.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=czech%20uranium&st=cse

Uranium production in the former Czechoslovakia peaked at about 3,000 tons annually during the 1960s, but the Czech Republic currently produces about 300 tons a year. That represents less than half of the country’s current needs.

Dont know what type of tons they are referring to but it would come out to around 600,000 lbs presently with the potential of 6,000,000 lbs per year. Currently, the price of uranium is around $50 per pound so the revenue from uranium could be between $30 to $300 million dollars.

The 'Times goes on to say:

Sensing the potential, an Australian and Czech joint venture called Urania resubmitted applications this year to explore sites near Straz, including at least one site that would be suitable for chemical mining, which is how the current toxic waste pool was created.

Doing some legwork, the Australian firm in question is called Uran Limited and trades on the Australian exchange. A very cheap option on the future of nuclear power in Eastern Europe.

Go to their site to learn more: http://www.uranlimited.com.au/

Or consider another cheap miner involved in Slovakia (where I read on Bloomberg's ticker that it strives to be the Singapore of Eastern Europe): Tournigan Energy, http://www.tournigan.com/s/home.asp

The stock used to be $3 and now about $0.20. They have real resources, but will they be exploited? That's why they are a bet on the future and where a guy can get ahead.

Stocks involved in Uganda's Resources

2010-11-03T02:31:00.002-04:00

So far I have only found four stocks that are invested in Uganda and actively looking for more!

Is this the "one eye in the kingdom of the blind" that James Dines keeps referring to when he finds his big winners?

1) IBI,www.ibinvest.com
2) Gulf Industries, http://gulfindustrials.com.au/
3) Vangold Resources, http://www.vangold.ca/s/Home.asp
4) Goodwin PLC, http://www.goodwinplc.com/
5) Magnus Minerals, http://www.magnusresources.com/index.php

From CNN: Uganda, Gold, and the Refinery Business

2010-11-01T10:10:00.002-04:00

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/africa/10/28/uganda.gold/index.html

For years, the only problem with Uganda's multi-million dollar gold export trade was that the vast majority of it came from foreign soil. Now, one Russian businessman is working to change that.

Until now, the majority of the gold exported by Uganda has come primarily from the Democratic Republic of Congo, a relationship heavily criticized by human rights groups who claim smuggled Congo gold is a "conflict mineral" that is funding the deadly civil war in the East African nation.

Yuri Bogoroditsky is the managing director of Victoria Gold Star, owners of the first ever gold refinery in Uganda. He says he wants to make Uganda a legitimate player in the gold industry -- buying the raw material, refining it, and exporting the finished product -- all from his Kampala refinery.

The $1.5 million refinery, opened in May of this year, can process up to 1.2 tons of raw gold per month -- nearly equaling the $35 million of gold Uganda exported in all of 2008, according to a government report.

Deep underground gold reserves were discovered in Uganda last year.
Bogoroditsky says that unlike in the Congo, where gold lies fairly close to the surface, Uganda will need investments in proper mining operations to reap the benefits of its own gold deposits -- investments that are starting to roll in.

"We already have several contracts with official miners here," Bogoroditsky told CNN. "And also we plan to establish the official connection with governments of surrounding East African countries."

Bogoroditsky and his investors chose Uganda's capital city because of its relative stability and its proximity to vast gold resources in nearby countries like Tanzania, Kenya and the Congo.

The refinery has already drawn buyers from the United States, United Kingdom and South Africa in recent months, and Bogoroditsky said he also planned to legally import the precious mineral.

Last month, the Congolese government -- which had previously signed a deal with Bogoroditsky's refinery -- banned gold mining from several eastern provinces due to the conflict there, effectively cutting off a large supply of the raw material to the young refinery.

"What we're doing from our side, we're not dealing with any rebels, we're not dealing with any smugglers of the gold," said Bogoroditsky. "Even the presence of the factory here is a big defense against the cheaters."

Bogoroditsky continues to maintain the legitimacy of his refinery's own product and stand by his goal of legitimizing the gold trade in general for Uganda -- a goal that, if attained, could put the country and the rest of East Africa on the map as a destination for gold buyers around the world.

"This is going to be a good thing for Uganda if transparency, accountability, is the guiding principal," said Ibrahim Kasita, business editor of New Vision newspaper in Kampala.

"Once everyone knows where this gold is coming from, once everyone is involved, once everyone is allowed to participate, I think it's a good business for Uganda, Ugandans and the government," said Kasita.

India's Billionaires are going shopping in Africa

2010-10-25T00:56:00.003-04:00

Bloomberg keeps having interesting articles on Africa's chance of getting out of the mire and into the money making business due to foreign investors.

Where the hell are the gamblers in Uganda and IBI?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-24/ethiopian-rose-fields-give-india-billionaires-tips-on-african-buying-spree.html

“Africa looks remarkably similar to what India was 15 years ago,” said Firdhose Coovadia, director of Essar’s African operations. “We can’t lose this opportunity to replicate the low-cost, high-volume model we’ve perfected in India.”

“Africa is seen by the investing community as the last frontier,” said Walter Rossini, who manages $330 million in an India fund at Aletti Gestielle Sgr Spa in Milan. “There is a higher risk, but then there is greater reward if the political situation remains stable over the next 10 years.”

From Bloomberg: Exxon, Chevron's Africa Ambitions Face Risk From State Curbs

2010-10-12T03:37:00.004-04:00

Is this to scare foreign investors or the beginning of something bullish?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-11/exxon-chevron-s-africa-ambitions-at-risk-as-oil-states-assert-authority.html

From

"Ghana blocked Exxon’s $4 billion bid to buy a stake in the country’s Jubilee field from Kosmos Energy LLC this year. Tullow’s plans to start pumping from fields in Uganda with 1 billion barrels of oil have been held up by a tax dispute. Both countries are set to become major oil exporters for the first time as discoveries are put into production. "

to

"Tullow paid Heritage Oil Plc $1.5 billion in July to take full control of two Ugandan blocks, prior to bringing in China National Offshore Oil Corp. and Total SA as partners. Final approval has been held up until the issue of capital gains tax between the Ugandan government and Heritage is resolved.

“We have major investments all over Africa,” said Aidan Heavey, Tullow’s chief executive officer. “The Ghanaian government and the Ugandan government both have very strong legal systems, very strong tax systems. They follow those and we have no problem with it.”

A little nugget I got out of the article is:

“It’s low cost to enter through exploration awards,” said Martin Kelly, the head of sub-Sahara Africa research at Edinburgh, Scotland-based Wood Mackenzie. “There is plenty of interest.” ...

Dana Petroleum Plc, the recent target of a successful $2.9 billion hostile takeover offer by Korea National Oil Corp., said the best way to profit from African oil is to sell any discoveries.

“You don’t necessarily have to go into full development,” CEO Tom Cross said. “The best way to maximize return to shareholders is to explore in these countries, but to produce cash in more politically stable areas.”

Which again leads me to conclude IBI is dirt cheap if , of course, there is truth under what they represent.

Where are the speculators????

Shouldn't this make other Aluminum processors more valuable?

2010-10-11T09:12:00.001-04:00

Mal spokeswoman Andrea Nemeth wasn’t immediately available to comment when called by Bloomberg. The company is Hungary’s only alumina refiner and the country’s second-largest enterprise in the aluminum industry, according to its website. Mal employs 1,100 people in and around the Ajka refinery and exports 80 percent of the alumina it produces, which accounts for 12 percent of the European market, it said.

Vermiculite in Uganda

2010-10-11T04:41:00.001-04:00

Vermiculite production in Uganda to increase farmer access to fertilizer.

http://www.africanagricultureblog.com/2010/01/vermiculite-production-in-uganda-to.html

New website for Gulf

2010-10-08T04:23:00.002-04:00

http://gulfindustrials.com.au/

Not only that it is in bright green which implies "saving the planet one leaf at a time"
So you are going to get enviromental and feel good investors taking a stab at this cheap baby.

So you got to be in the shares before they pop.

The website went from drab blue to bright green so management sees a future here. Or at least higher stock prices which is good for the venturesome.

Why Uganda?

2010-10-08T04:19:00.001-04:00

From http://gulfindustrials.com.au/?page_id=90

Good investment opportunity for mineral wealth – Uganda presents a good investment opportunity in terms of mineral wealth due mainly to three reasons: lack of investment in the past has left most of Uganda under explored leaving large areas of virgin ground untouched; the diversity of Uganda’s geology presents the opportunity for a wide range of possible metallic and non-metallic deposits to be developed; and due to active steps taken recently by the Uganda Government to encourage investment in the country’s mineral sector.

Uganda has a well developed road and rail network connecting it to all surrounding countries, most importantly to the Indian Ocean ports of Mombasa in Kenya and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. The country has a pleasant climate despite its equatorial position largely due to its overall higher altitude. Uganda also received adequate annual rain fall for all its needs.

According to the census of 2002 the population of Uganda was just over 24 million people of which 84% were Christians. School in Uganda is free, and Uganda has one of the highest attendance rates in Africa with over 70% of all children attending classes.

Finally

2010-10-07T10:51:00.002-04:00

Finally gold and silver are performing like they usually do: get you excited then dash your hopes of sudden riches.

Of course, maybe that was in the past and the intraday reversal will reverse again up.

Look at the Ozzie for a good example.

Lets see.

Why invest in Africa (from Jim SInclair)

2010-10-03T12:02:00.002-04:00

This was taken from Jim Sinclair's website www.jsmineset.com
It's very frustraing not presently making windfall profits in the penny stock miners, but frustration won't help you just patience.

Dear CIGAs,

When we were all sitting on the veranda of the office, one leg of the plastic chair I was sitting on collapsed. Now no one can say I do not bend over backwards for CIGAs.

I have travelled from the bush to Mwanza on Lake Victoria and am now on to Dubai, followed then with a 14 hour flight to New York.

It is very hard to leave Tanzania. The sincere respect shown to me there cannot be equalled anywhere.

I spent this morning with the Dar Stock Exchange. It was so thrilling to hear Tanzania in open outcry trading of the companies active here.

In time there will be great profits made with these national exchanges as they become private and Africa grows. For those that doubt this growth, you should have been with me in India in 1985. The idea that the hoards of multi millions in abject and grinding poverty would ever enter a consumer economy appeared then totally impossible. Look at India now.

There are 900,000,000 people in Africa that will build a vibrant consumer industry as has India and other Asian nations.

Africa is rising, of that I assure you.

Asanti Sana,
Jim in Dubai

A speculative bet on Vermiculite

2010-09-29T06:05:00.004-04:00

The best bet besides Apple the past decade was Potash of Saskatchewan. Both corporations made their pot of gold in items that were overlooked but essential to this generation.

One item that may be overlooked going forward is Vermiculite http://www.vermiculite.org/ It is an item that is required to enhance yields in crops and helps provide nutrients for animals.The added kicker is that it is in an area of the world that I believe will be a knockout, Uganda (did anyone really know where Saskatchewan was)

I heard of the item from IBI that owned a great deposit in Uganda, but since sold it to Rio Tinto. Recently, Rio Tinto passed the claim on to a 5 million market cap company in Australia, Gulf Resources. www.gulfresources.com.au/ Gulf appears to have gotten a claim and workable mine at a good price where they can make money and spit off cash flow that is very hard for a junior miner to find.

Rio Tinto, from what I have seen, has a knack for selling great assets at the bottom of markets. The examples I have in mind are: Westmoreland to Laramide (uranium) and Lucky Strike to Hecla Mining (silver) - this is what happens when a multi billion dollar company has lots of debt and lots of differing operations.

So a 5 million market cap company that is hard to purchase with a big deposit of an item in short supply should equal significant gains.
Here is some links on the history of this property:

http://allafrica.com/stories/200704171080.html
Kampala — Mining giant Rio Tinto is set to build a big plant to mine vermiculite in Tororo (eastern Uganda) following its takeover of the business from Canmin Resources of Canada recently.

In December last year, Canmin Resources' mother company IBI of Canada entered into a sales agreement with Rio Tinto. That agreement stipulated that Rio Tinto would take-over the business at the end of March 2007.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRatMTTk8Y4s&refer=africa
Rio Tinto acquired the rights to mine more than 6 million metric tons of vermiculite in Uganda from Canmin Resources Ltd., a unit of Canada's IBI Corp., for $5 million in December 2006. It halted operations on April 1 last year because the plant wasn't able to produce high-quality vermiculite, a mineral used in fireproofing, insulation and potting soil.
The company ``is currently in the process of identifying potential purchasers who will develop the Namekhala project,'' Kastis said. He declined to provide further details.

Rio said at the time of the acquisition of the Ugandan project that it hoped to quadruple production at the mine in eastern Uganda to 20,000 tons a year.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201004130825.html
Mining and processing vermiculite, an ingredient needed to make inorganic fertilisers, is scheduled to start this month in Manafwa district, eastern Uganda.

Experts estimate the vermiculite deposit in Namekhala area in Manafwa to be among the biggest single concentrations of the mineral in the world.

...
The pioneer company that prospected the mineral in 1998 was Canmine Resources Ltd - a subsidiary of IBI Corporation of Canada - which started the mining in 2001.

It later sold its assets in 2007 to Rio Tinto at $5 million, and the latter sold out to Gulf Resources in 2009.

Rio Tinto had drilled over 64 holes for resource definition, pit optimisation and design, and has also done some market research.

Just after the acquisition of the mine last year, Gulf Resources executive chairman Scott Reid said that the resource had one of the largest deposits of coarse grained vermiculite that was well suited to meet the requirements for both local and world markets.

Gulf Resources said that they would invest $500,000 over one year to meet the production target of 2012.

The reasons why we buy speculative stocks

2010-09-16T12:58:00.002-04:00

We don't want to wind up in a dead end job and have no freedon. What holds back a guy from getting ahead is that he doesn't feel he deserves it. Remember you do deserve it. It's that simple.

IBI is now trading below a penny, and market cap is 1.5 million bucks

2010-09-13T08:54:00.003-04:00

Maybe I'm hanging onto straws. Things just don't add up.

IBI is in control of many prospective gold mines in Uganda.
Has a stake in Uganda's uranium exploration and nuclear aspirations.
Won a lawsuit where they have a stake in a miner that may discover Rare Earth metals.

But the stock is priced for oblivion. Experts agree.

www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3127:experts-laugh-at-ugandas-nuclear-energy-ambitions&catid=38:business&Itemid=68

So if there is a billion dollars under the ground and I put $10,000 of hard earned money and the stock appreciates to a $1 billion price tag, then my selling price would appreciate 66,700%, or net me before taxes of $6,670,000.

Encouraging signs, again, in Uganda

2010-09-07T09:52:00.002-04:00

Essar, Kenya Seek Ugandan Oil to Secure Refinery Supplies

www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-06/essar-kenya-seek-ugandan-oil-to-secure-refinery-supplies.html?cmpid=yhoo

Intel and the world is going wireless, so how can I make a billion dollars so freaking bad?

2010-08-30T04:23:00.003-04:00

This is a penny stock called Mobile Max.
This pdf summarizes their product in a nut-shell

http://www.mobile-mx.com/uploadimages/MobileMax%20client%20Brochure.pdf

They have something that help clients integrate phone numbers. Sounds interesting.
Has only a 10 million market cap.

Believe their focus is on corporations who tend to be spenders on efficiency so lets see.

Revenue is growing so there is demand in this product, but by how much?

This song puts things in perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aRor905cCw&feature=related

This is one investment that may lead to that dream.

Apple is a buy

2010-08-27T11:51:00.001-04:00

I changed my mind. More info to come but Apple is a buy and so is EDU.

Or more like a trade, but as I have learned - stopped being pessimistic!

Missed it

2010-08-15T05:27:00.002-04:00

Reviewing some of my thoughts that I wrote about. Today what has made me upset is missing the complete destruction of education stocks.

Education stocks dropped 50%
While Drug stocks keep paying strong dividends.

I missed the big collapse since I was focused on Europe and banking.
Again, it pays to listen to oneself as well as keep track of the market in a disciplined manner.

Of course, in a perfect world.

Global Telecos are hot

2010-08-13T08:55:00.002-04:00

I don't know why they are going up but it appears to be something to do with high dividend yields and the possibility of charging for internet usage.

Look at:

Verizon and ATT in the US.
NTT in Japan and is expanding. Though most feel a strong Yen will hurt this company, I argue that they will be able to buyout competitors at a good price.
TCL in India was up when the market tanked on Wednesday.

Laramide Resources: Buying for free

2010-07-18T09:07:00.002-04:00

A longtime reader mentioned that Laramide is still expensive. But how?

It has about 60 million pounds of uranium and 67.5 million shares outstanding. Currently, Laramide trades at about 0.82 Canadian Dollars.

Uranium prices are at $41.00 per pound, so the corporation is bid at 2% of the price of uranium. Shouldn't management have value? Shouldn't the money placed hold value? What about Laramide's speculative gambles worldwide?

Keep this in mind when they dilute shares for more financing, at least you'll be a shareholder still.

Australia can tax all they want as well. It doesn't matter at these prices.

Not good news from Uganda, but

2010-07-12T07:22:00.003-04:00

A sad unfortunate attack occurred in the capital of Uganda.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-12/at-least-64-killed-as-bomb-blasts-strike-world-cup-soccer-fans-in-uganda.html

We'll have to follow the progress of this situation from government handling of the matter to the population's response.

Asian Tigers should be dubbed Asian Radiation (work in progress)

2010-06-29T01:45:00.002-04:00

Asia is all over the place the past few weeks in making deals that are tied to the nuclear industry.

1) China and Cameco
2) Japan and India
3) India and Canada
4) Hong Kong and USEC (was in New York Times)

This provides validity on the long term growth of the industry, but not on price appreciation of corporations. But at least one knows if he parks money in the industry that it is a growing and viable one, where in the long run should provide profits for the current risk-taker and investor.

Flag at half staff, Market at half staff

2010-06-28T08:53:00.003-04:00

Another black swan has popped up. The market selloff in the past 30 minutes is attributed to Senator Bird's passing. Or is it because of profit taking from the bets on Friday? Or light volume before NY opens and positioning for the next leg up?

You're not going to make money reading this article. But coal stocks may be overpriced since for his entire career he protected the industry and now may have environmental regulators flood West Virginia.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-robert-byrd-dies-at-92-2010-06-28?dist=beforebell

G20 meeting = Cheap bets

2010-06-25T12:18:00.004-04:00

For some cheap bets before the G20 meeting, there are Bank of America and Banco Santander call options that are very low.

STD's 12.50 call option is trading for 10 cents.
Stratfor, the Geopolitical rag, believes Spain will hang in there.
Maybe there'll be a short squeeze?

Bank of America's 16 call options are for 29 cents so the writers believe the US banks have a better chance of a rally.

Also, the financial regulations coming out of Washington was a drag on prices.

Lets see!

I thought so, concerning Pimco's strategy

2010-06-24T09:24:00.003-04:00

The past 30 years since the nosebleed interest rate levels of the late 70s was one hell of a bull market for bonds that stiffly stopped during the crash of 2008.

It was a credit bust, not a stock market crash. I feel that stocks haven't gone up at all if you figure the Euro appreciation and bond appreciation and that the time for stock ownership is now. Bill Gross is coming out saying the same

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZ4xD1Gxe3XY&pos=10

Of course, Warren Buffett was saying it at the bottom.

Bill Gross has been right for quite sometime. Warren Buffett, presently, has his hand stuck in the cookie jar.

Does this mean that corporations will thrive by not being under the tyranny of interest rates?

Biggest short in 719 years of existence

2010-06-18T06:47:00.005-04:00

The Swiss have just caved in and compromised their independence by signing away the unique feature that gave the Swiss their renown, privacy.

The Swiss are now just another overpriced European destination. While other European nations may leave the Euro, the Swiss are most definitely entering.

What occurred yesterday with the Swiss National Bank is counterintuitive, but easily explained. The Swiss have been trying to keep their Franc from appreciating then just stopped yesterday with the Central banker's comments yesterday. It must be seen in conjuction with the agreement in the US. The US agreement is bearish the Franc, so now the Central bank's job is to keep the Franc from falling. It will, but they are going to slow the process - starting yesterday.

I can't be more specific The Franc has ceased to be.

Buy the EUR/CHF and just keep buying.

You're not going to hear this anywhere else because anyone that is anyone is not going to share this billion dollar trade.

Just like every pundit that I enjoy reading from Nicholas Taleb to Marc Faber to Jim Rogers, from Barrons to Financial Times, didn't mention the Euro short until it was well underway.

The only ones were the ElliottWave group who get it wrong on a daily, but not in years. And a special shout out goes to James Dines on his Dollar call.

Laramide Resources: Company + Management = LT success

2010-06-06T01:51:00.002-04:00

Laramide and its charismatic chariman, Marc Henderson, are inextricably linked together.

He has had several successes and accomplishments in the past decade's resourced boom.

1) Getting Laramide Resources out of bankruptcy (as told to me by him verbally many years ago)
2) Buying Laramide's key asset for $1 million bucks from Rio Tinto
3) Buying Homestake's uranium assets in the US
4) Buying then selling the big silver deposit in Argentina through Aquiline Resources
5) Having a stake in the US's largest area for deposits: Virginia. A location that is similar to the Australian one due to the fact it is a coal mining area and anti-nuclear.
6) Raising a bunch of money to develop and expland the flagship Westmoreland property

The negatives were

1) Where did all the money that he raised go? Now down to $6 million. It's hard to understand reading the reports. I hope not in the executives pockets, but even so he is the type of executive that will put more money in the company if the opportunity is there or in another promising projects.
2) Some of the money in question went into Khan Resources, another great asset but in Mongolia that basically cancelled Khan's right to explore on its property.
3) The Laramide property is on Native land so there was a delay in exploration
4) Australia just announced a mining tax that to the observer would appear to be negative for miners and explorers in Australia

Going forward:
1) Tax or no tax. Laramide is trading with a market cap of $50 million. They have two key untapped mines in the world: Australia and the US. If you need the stuff there will be investments.
2) You can't buy and develop these two deposits for the market cap traded at
3) He's a veteran of the boom bust cycles of commodities so he is a good asset allocator
4) I don't believe that the big miners like BHP and Rio Tinto were caught with their pants down when the mining tax was announced. This was long time coming.
5) Cameco bought a big prospective mine in the land down under and I believe they factored in the risk of 40% tax. It's the cost of doing business.

Is Laramide worth investing in ?
1) If one believes in the growth of nuclear energy without new technology diminishing the demand for new deposits of uranium
2) It's trading below mineral value

Any negatives?
1) The big money have been burned in uranium investments so it may be awhile before valuations are truly worth what they should be. I'm thinking 2016.
2) There may be other better investments out there

On days like this

2010-05-07T00:37:00.001-04:00

KG - Daily Candlesticks

2010-04-25T02:25:00.000-04:00

KG - Daily Candlesticks: "I thought it was a buy in the beginning of April since there was heavy buying. Didn't realize that it was a bet on the FDA announcement that occurred last week. April 9th was the day to short the stock in hindsite, but will this help in the next trade? I do know that the sell off was exacerbated with a sector wide washout. So the question is will it rally? I am going to wait for a trend confirmation...

via StockCharts.com

More Reasons to short Apple

2010-04-15T06:08:00.001-04:00

1) An analyst whose brokerage bought a bunch of cheap puts writes an article how Google or Microsoft are eating into Apple's market share

2) General market selloff

3) China ban rare earth export

4) The crises in Europe or trade spats limit the demand of Apple

5) Again, the iPad will eat into other corners of its business

6) Cheap Chinese knockoff

Cramer vs. Eric

2010-04-08T09:29:00.001-04:00

Cramer is wildly bullish Teva and owns it in his charitable trust. I on the other hand own puts on it.

Who are you going to trust?

The succesful hedge fund manager cum guru slash author? Or moi?

Anyways, Credit Suisse is tanking (an admitted tangent)

Short Apple, Short Teva

2010-04-07T07:14:00.004-04:00

There's a saying, "Can't keep a good guy down" or I guess in this situation, stock, but call me skeptical.

1) Bernard Baruch made his first million shorting, not buying, the copper mine in its day. I thought my first million in the market would be shorting the copper stocks, but at the moment this appears to be one of those aberrations.

2) Joe Granville has a theory that all parabolic moves must be shorted

3) Apple's products comes in waves then a competitor comes along...

4) The iPad, at its cheaper price, will eat into its computer business

5) The iPad will get cheaper not more expensive...

6) We don't like monopolies and Apple will be no different.

7) Teva sells generic products which in theory should have low markup. There will be competitors.

8) Teva doesn't add value and cycles change and value will be demanded

9) Mr. Buffett has a saying "be fearful when others are greedy"

10) It sounds crazy. But people forget that Apple Co. is not an angel (options backdating and Jobs health) and Teva's legal staff over substance.

In order to make that million, you will need to risk capital that may have been hard to earn and that's the problem. I guess the other problem is the timing of it and previous memories that may have not been so kind (thinking of my Goldman Sachs options).

But as George Patton sums it up "Now, there's one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home, and you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you're sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee, and he asks you, What did you do in the great World War Two? You won't have to say, Well, I shoveled shit in Louisiana. Alright now, you sons of bitches, you know how I feel. I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle anytime, anywhere. That's all.”

This is like Bush declaring war on Iraq

2010-03-22T07:59:00.003-04:00

Oil went from $10 to $144 when the Government printed money. What will the price be for drugs with nationalized health care?

SHORT OIL/ BUY DRUGS
SHORT EDUCATION/ BUY DRUGS

Just not Teva (overpriced) - it's like buying Exxon, no fun in this stock.

If you want to short oil with leverage

2010-03-15T08:38:00.003-04:00

Companies with leverage can be considered great stocks if they would be able to pay off their debt.

The reverse can be said, as well, if they cannot pay their debt, since the company is worthless. And leveraged options would make a killing.

If oil goes down or the inventories are large or if global trade slows then the shippers shares should go down. The more 'ors' the more chances of this occurring.

Im looking at SSW, FRO and some high flyer but can't remember presently.

Marc Faber: Don't Expect Another Crash ... Bernanke Won't Allow it

2010-03-12T09:44:00.003-05:00

As much as I like Mr. Faber, that is what Irving Fisher had to say as well in the 30s. My BS detector is on all alerts.

If there is hyper inflation where will the wealth flow to?

A - F - R - I - C -A

It has always been there in times of trouble.

Long SP500, Short Berkshire Hathaway

2010-03-11T08:28:00.002-05:00

What's interesting about Warren Buffett is how he says one thing as he does another, but not really.

He tells people all over the world that his company may not outperform the SP500 as he dilutes shares of Berkshire by selling to the public and being accepted into the SP500. Usually, a guy touts his company as he sells out.

Who the hell wants to buy shares of Berkshire if the SP500 is a better bet?

Also, Mr. Buffett himself is selling ALL his shares. So what is that telling you?

He is taking his vast wealth and putting it into the Gates Foundation which is putting its eggs into Africa? Shouldn't you?

Charity, shmarity moneys going into Africa and the stocks there are cheap. Just today a client mentioned that highest growth in Middle Class wealth is in South Africa.

Accepting one's lot in life

2010-03-11T02:06:00.001-05:00

A well known child actor at 38 passed away, Corey Haim. As with the current flock of teenage stars, there is envy and jealousy at instant fame. But the star in the center of attention sometimes can handle the pressure of fame and others cannot. He unfortunately could not.

I found this poem apropo as an eulogy:

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate.
Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure.
It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us.
We ask ourselves, "Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented,
fabulous?"
Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God.
Your playing small doesn't serve the world.
There's nothing enlightened about shrinking so that
other people won't feel insecure around you.
We are all meant to shine, as children do.
We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us.
It's not just in some of us; it's in everyone.
And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give
other people permission to do the same.
As we're liberated from our own fear,
our presence automatically liberates others.
~Marianne Williamson

Shorting Oil - 81.98 stop

2010-03-09T06:48:00.005-05:00

Oil is providing a tremendous short opportunity.

They have been producing and producing oil throughout the recession so there is no reason for this glut to go away. Everyone is talking about the Middle East premium, but maybe that's why it's not $30 a barrel. The last time a Democrat was in office was $15 a barrel so keep that in mind.

Traders that shorted gold at $800 way back in the early 80s made a fortune. So did the ones that shorted it after the first spike down. Also, keep in mind that no one even the contrarians are talking of lower oil prices.

The trick is to hold onto your short. I used to say, and it was true, that I got stopped out at THE high of oil. But I know deep down I wouldn't have held on all the way down. The big money is in the long term trend.

4% loss, for 40-80% profit sounds good to me.

IBI HAS NEW WEBSITE

2010-03-08T07:00:00.001-05:00

IBI HAS NEW UPDATED WEBSITE www.ibinvest.com
PLEASE GO AND READ UP ON THE COMPANY AND THE PROSPECTS THE COUNTRY OF UGANDA HAS TO OFFER.

Fri Morning- Feb 19th - Update

2010-02-19T09:14:00.002-05:00

Today is options expiration day. So no trading allowed, at least for the day. What is funny is that:
1) Gold doesn't seem to want to go down
2) The Dollar still needs to breakdown some currency, but doesn't appear to have the strength
3) Europe still hasn't decided on Greece
4) Market volume light on this run-up
5) Fed raising rates
6) Options expiration, with a boatload of puts going to expire

Monday will begin a clean slate. Expecting a sell off into the close (who wants to own something where Europe may derail it by bumbling the Greece crisis) and a big down Monday or Tuesday of next week. If not, well then...

Feb 12-Friday-Market Update

2010-02-12T06:45:00.002-05:00

Market update-
My hunch is that unlike 2008, the market will be pushing up the US dollar alongside Gold.

The Dow went from 10700 to about 9900 back to around 10100. In the meantime, we investors are worried about the state of Europe as well as the state governments in the US. Now China is coming out contracting liquidity, which corresponds with the Feds earlier announcemnt.

So what appears to be happening is that governments are throwing down the gauntlet on inflation, or what they define it as in order to create deflation. But this is only temporary, as most would not be able to handle it for any extended period of time, which is why the money will be moving into gold, not into Euros nor US Dollars. Remember 1 ounce absorbs $1,050 dollars.

Stops are key. What is strange is that my stops are similar.
S&P500 1040
Gold 1044

Nuclear Energy Update

2010-01-31T23:18:00.004-05:00

There was a lag after President Obama's push during his State of the Union speach concerning nuclear energy, but the sector finally showed some life on Friday; in particular, Usec and Shaw Group.

This can have bullish long term implications. Traders or investors are initially going after the low hanging fruit, but as Mr. Dines, the original uranium bug, asks, "but where are they going to get all that uranium from?"

The S&P500 is on a sell signal

2010-01-31T14:29:00.003-05:00

The SP500 broke its uptrend but has done it before when breaking the heavy downtrendlines drawn below. There is key support at bottom of its selloff last week. The first resistance level is 1100, then 1150, and finally 1250. So the SP500 is on a sell signal, but it is too soon to say that we are in bearish territory. The yearly trend has been up so don't fight the trend, but of course we can pause and step back.

Jan 29 - Fri - Stats

2010-01-31T01:13:00.002-05:00

Didn't publish on Thursday but kept notes. Not sure if my readers enjoy the statistics but clear ideas of where markets are going with stats and figures to back up my market calls.

Markets were down again today and unlike the past nine months, we are experiencing sell offs after market strength.

NYSE had increasing advancers and declining decliners which also corresponded with the large pickup of volume. But, the top 100 issues had broadbased pickup of volume and on the downside. What I have been noticing is that market reversals tend to have higher volume days. Citigroup was up today and may have officially bottomed.

NASDAQ had 3 billion shares traded today, the highest since I have been keeping tabs. The declining volume really picked up. The volume in the top 100 was large. New highs picked up a bit from 31 to 38.

Diary-There is panic and everyone expects a 50% plunge. But the panic happened at higher levels without gaps and there were still buyers out there. Also, I finally think what we are seeing is the end of the short squeeze and now the value of equities, bonds, and the future economy will be based on expected future returns as opposed to market technicalities.

Out

2010-01-29T07:23:00.004-05:00

of market. Don't like the action. But things may change and righten themselves. Whatever you do, don't trade today. Of course, who's to stop you so place tight stops.

The US GDP numbers are coming out and Greece may have some rude awakenings this weekend.

Jan 28 - Wed - Stats

2010-01-27T22:57:00.003-05:00

DJIA +10236.16 DJT +4034.39 DJU -385.45

Market Internals

NYSE-Advancing issues are making lower highs: 2382,1768, and now 1527. Declining issues were at 1553. Highs are fast diminishing at 49. New lows increased to 14. Volume picked up which is a good sign on this reversal day to 1,292,603,174. Increasing volume picked up to 726,224,334 which was the highest since last Tuesday. But down volume was higher than the last up day on Monday at 552,175,540. Top 100 actively traded stocks-#1, Citigroup, 558,180,694. #5, JP Morgan, 66,315,095. #10, Cemex, 49,148,231. #50, Banco Bradesco, 16,081,499. #100, Baker Hughes with two up days in a row at 9,655,181. What's going on? Notes-President Obama gave a State of Union after the market closed so traders and investors may have paused until afterwards to start making commitments.

NASDAQ

Jan 27 - Wed- Betting List

2010-01-26T23:11:00.002-05:00

ALL BETS HELD UNTIL FURTHER POSTING.

1) SIRIUS, SIRI, 0.71

2) ALLLIED CAPITAL, ALD, 4.37

3) DEARBORN BANCORP, DEAR, 1.90

Jan 26 - Tues - Stats

2010-01-26T22:45:00.002-05:00

DJIA (10194.29) DJT (4014.55) DJU +387.60

Market Internals-
NYSE-1106 stocks moved up and 1965 stocks moved down. 75 mad new highs and 9 made new lows. It gets worse: higher activity at 1,1,24,449,935. Up volume was 45% less than yesterday at 343,750,600. Down volume was significantly higher as well at 768,801,005. Top 100 shares traded-#1, Citigroup at 457,667,768. #2, Regions Financial, 67,535,373. #10, Weatherford, 43,801,027. #50, Baker Hughes, 14,177,570. #100, Duke Energy, a utility that had heavy selling the previous week, 8,480,589 and up today. Notes-Financials are weak and steel makers weaker. But not private equity, Allied Capital was up. Money flowing out of financials? and into its investors?

NASDAQ-862 shares managed to be up today with 1771 declining shares. 35 made new highs and 21 made new lows. Activity picked up to 2,361,260,823. Volume was healthier for bid up shares at 1,024,237,027, but that may have been early activity as the 1,282,955,493 shares came in and swamped the buyers. Top 100 shares traded-#2, Microsoft, 66,640,894. #5, Cisco, 55,314,942. When it was going up, it was in the 45m range. #10, Etrade, 40,622,891. #50, instead of JBLU, we get UAUA today at 9,175,652. #100, a Southeastern bank, Whitney Holdings, at 4,090,302. Notes- Midwestern banks sold off today, at least the active ones, but DEAR, a Detroit based bank was up. It fits the thesis that the Midwest has bottomed and a new economic upcycle is in play there. SIRIUS was up as well.

Diary-Except for some gambling stocks, the market is in the DONT BUY category.

Jan 25 - Monday - Stats

2010-01-25T23:32:00.002-05:00

DJIA 10,196.86 DJT 4025.38 DJU 386.14

Market Internal:
NYSE-1768 advancers and 1299 decliners. The highs didn't pick up steam with 77 and new lows held steady at 6. 1,051,436,808 shares traded hands. 615,818,100 were marked up and 423,810,758 were marked down. Top 100 actively traded shares-#1, Citigroup at 497,132,591. #5, JP Morgan, 56,573,901. #10, Sprint at 37,139,477. #50, Genworth Financial, 13,125,702. #100, CVS Pharmacy at 7,404,019. Notes-Market was light. Not much to work with. Sprint may finally be setting up for a move north.

NASDAQ-1296 advancers and an abyssmal 1343 decliners. The same with 34 highs and 11 lows. I am confused because the internal stats for the previous day were good. 2,134,358,319 traded hands. 1,330,552,105 on the upside and 786,909,756 on the downside. Top 100 shares traded-#1, Intel, 173,764,600. #5, Applied Material, 39,766,200. #10, Dell?, that big cap hasn't show up for awhile with 26,820,334. #50, Jet Blue, 8,320,638. #100, AEZS, not sure what they do, 4,051,486. Notes-Biotechs where are they? Not sure today.

Diary-I stood frozen by the computer wanting to liquidate my positions on a hunch. But I spent too much time building a portfolio. At the end of the day, I am pleased. The same goes with reading the market and not predicting. The future is a gamble so we are playing odds and ones that are vastly in our favor.

IBI update

2010-01-24T04:30:00.002-05:00

IBI's affiliate Grey Crown resources in which it has its gold holding will be going public through a merger-like acquisition with a Sereno Capital. They are executing on what they say, but it takes time. Hopefully, they will get their website operating so there will be more visibility.

Jan 22 - Fri - Stats

2010-01-23T22:58:00.005-05:00

The market was down heavy for the third day in a row. Like 2008 and the beginning of 2009 there was no uptick in sight, because of fear, but this time of the political kind.

DJIA -10172.98 DJT -4005.08 DJU-383.99

MARKET INTERNALS
NYSE-The advancers became increasingly paltry this week and ended with 559. 2530 declined and only 80 made new highs with a slight increase of new lows at 6. Activity did pick up today at 1,489,617,782 (keep in mind, last Friday had less volume at 1,407 million shares traded). Uptick volume was 161,475,230 and downtick volume was 1,299,730,682. Top 100 shares traded-#1, Citigroup, 654,003,227. #5, JP Morgan Chase at 106,625,183. #10, Sprint, 55,696,937. #50, Alcatel Lucent, 17,848,958. #100, Coca Cola, 11,775,504. Notes-The volume for the top 5 were very high, but compared to yesterday the other top 100 volume were lower. So possible discrepancy in volume may show demand next week in the majority of issues.

NASDAQ-The advancers increased from yesterday to 704 and the decliners decreased to 1954. But highs plunged more than 40% to 42 with an increase in lows to 15. Total activity was about the same as yesterday, 2,817,623,439. What is concerning is the up volume as advancing issues increased, the volume decreased to 445,032,043. Does that mean only smart money took a shot here? Down tick volume picked up to 2,355,273,980. Top 100 shares traded - #1, Intel, 116,277,434. #5, Applied Material, 48,104,411. #10, Apple, 31,427,972. #50, Broadcom, 11,167,267. #100, Brigham Exploration, 5,179,335. Notes-Like the NYSE the top 5 were heavily traded as the rest traded slighly less than yesterday.

Diary-Midwestern banks were up or relatively strong. Again, my intuition says that whatever the Democrats will do, they will be funneling money to the industrial heartland. Stocks are on sale; especially on the Nasdaq. Even if this is the next leg down don't short the market, it happens too quickly. Be a shareholder, even if it is for one day. For instance, AMD, it has had appreciation this year of over 400%, but can only go down 100% if it does go bust but will it? It has debt, but also a billion dollar payout from Intel. Intel doesn't want it to go broke or it will face additional anti-trust legislation. As I tell my friends, remember Apple was bailed out by Microsoft in the last bear market.

Jan 21 - Thurs - Stats

2010-01-21T21:33:00.003-05:00

The markets declined for the second day today. The DJIA 10389.88 DJT 4093.82 DJU 393.81. The dollar stayed strong, but didn't surge today. The Yen was the champ while gold turned to lead.

Market Internals-
NYSE-As the week progresses, less stocks are advancing. Only 641 were up today while 2428 were clearly down. But the 52 wk highs pickrd up with 174 of them and only 4 lows. Activity was high at 1,501,017,996. A meager 195,091,226 shares pushed advancers up while 1,292,313,470 shares were pushed down today. The down volume is higher than the total activity for the past two weeks in the down. Either this signifies the end or the beginning of more to come. 100 most active shares-#1, Citigroup with a huge turnover of 959,980,395. President Obama's words were heard loud and clear in the issue. #2, General Electric, 99,095,935. #10, Sprint, 67,994,996. #50, Weatherford, 19,623,412 and up on the day. #100,Duke, 11,874,592, a utility. Aren't utilities suppossed not to be actively traded? Notes- SNV KEY DAL LUV BAC were up today so people saw some safe places to park cash. Heavy volume but it doesn't appear to be panic but changing of portfolios. Citigroup on the other hand will be interesting to watch.

NASDAQ-The decline on this exchange stayed steady from yesterday, but did not get any worse and in some cases improved. 660 shares declined and 1978 declined (only 30 more shares than yesterday). There was an increase of new highs to 94 with only 10 lows. Activity was large at 2,877,807,556. But that was not all to the downside. Volume for advancing shares actually increased by 300,000,000 shares to 910,592,132. Decling volume was 1,934,714,955. The top 100 shares traded-#1, Intel, 13,508,621. #5, Huntington Bancshares and up for the day, 63,920,115. #10, Sirius, 37,339,386. Please note Sirius was in the top10 3 days in a row with price neutral, up on heavy volume, and down on light volume for it. #50, Vodaphone, 11,614,525. #100, 5,115,371. Notes-CPWR is a buy or at least looks to go higher.

Diary-The markets are weak and dollar up. But why can't the market be up along with the dollar? Especially companies that make their money in dollars not in foreign exchange. Airlines, banks, and the Nasdaq were very strong today showing great relative strength.

NASDAQ-

Jan 20-Wed-Stats

2010-01-20T22:29:00.002-05:00

Markets-DJIA -10603.15 DJT -4148.53 DJU -399.56

Market Internals-
NYSE-Last week's selloff is still in play. After yesterday's rally, we had another selloff. 811 issues advanced with 2,257 selling off. From 316 highs on Tues, we managed only 156 new highs. But only 2 shares managed to make 52 wk lows. Activity picked up by 20m shares to 1,055,872,099. 233,721,300 shares advanced with 813,147,320. Top 100 shares traded-#1, Citigroup, at 478,497,184. #5, Wells Fargo, 75,704,680. #10, Alcoa, again, with shares increasing by 1m on a down day, to 35,655,347. #50, Coach, the handbag retailer, 15,018,842. #100, SuperValu, 8,691,459. Notes- After posting bad earnings report, Krogers and the rest of the grocery store sector are rallying nicely. Financials stayed strong as well. Healthcare stocks sold off more along the lines of profit taking.

NASDAQ-723 advanced on 1948 declines. 76 managed to make new highs while lows doubled from yesterday to 8. There was heavier activity in the Nasdaq as volume increased over 10% 2,351,892,514 changed hands. 608,803,240 on the upside and 1,721,295,454 on the downside. Tope 100 shares traded - #1, not Intel and not Microsoft, but Sirius which had a flat day yesterday. Today was up big with 145,571,986. #5, Micron, 42,198,335. #10, Schwab, 28,242,712. #50, Broadcom 9,519,730. #100, PMC Sierra, 4,729,786. Notes-ACAS and other speculative financials stayed strong.

Diary-I believe I need my head to be clear. The dollar rallied and the market has been up a lot. So think taking money off the table to gradually reload on positions may be prudent. Energy sold off but not the natural gas producers which may be related to Williams Co. Groceries stayed strong today.

Jan 19-Tues-Market Stats

2010-01-19T22:36:00.004-05:00

Markets-Global Dow (2025.83) SP500 1150.23 DJIA 10725.43 DJT 4201.70 DJU 403.88

Interest Rates- 2yr 0.88% 10yr-3.7%

Key Prices-EUR/USD 1.4302 USD/JPY 91.13 Gold 1140 Oil 79.02

On Balance Volume-DJIA CLX U d D u DJT CLX U d D u DJU CLX U d D u
0 2 - 1 - 2 - 0 0 2 - 0 - 2 - 0 +2 3 - 0 - 0 - 1

DJ Global 50 CLX U d D u DJ Composite CLX U d D u
+2 4 - 2 - 0 - 0 +2 7 - 1 - 4 -1
Market Internals:
NYSE-2382 shares advanced back after the onslaught on Friday. 700 still were down on the day. 316 made new highs on 6 lows for the day. 1,030,561,710 shares changed hand. 864,507,310 on the upside and 151,647,760 on the downside. No one could buy anything on a discount today. Top 100 most actively traded-#1, Citigroup at 807,259,955. Maybe it has turned a corner. #5, Ford at 65,881,237. #10, Alcoa at 34,423,538. #50, Bank of America Senior Notes, 13,950,839. Top and bottom of this were IBM and Tyco. #100, US Airways. Notes-Everything did well. Volume was not as heavy as it was on Friday and we had a vacation on Monday. Lets see if there is any follow through. I think Citigroup is worth taking a shot at. Healthcare companies had +1.00 moves, and are overbought. Should we chase thise sector? Or are there better investments?

NASDAQ- 1879 advanced on 785 decliners. 149 made new highs and 4 made new lows. Total activity was respectable at 2,045,298,701. 1,570,282,038 shares were marked up while only 448,082,170 were on sale. Top 100 most actively traded- #1, Intel, 84,494,126. Semiconductors cam back to life today. #5, CSCO, 37,542,964. For some reason it likes the fifth spot. 37m then would signify true demand for CSCO shares. #10, Sirius, 19,975,970, the price stayed the same. This issue sorely needs a catalyst to move. #50, Electronic Arts, 7,651,865. Would love to buy but don't know how to value it. #100, Altera, 4,577,553. Notes-Semis came back to life.

Diary-The big caps surged today catching traders off guard. We need to see follow through, if not, then this was a sucker's rally. I am pleased the market stayed up and didn't have intra-day swings. Again, US Steel was up and not Alcoa. Airlines were up but sold off into the close. Don't know what that means but AYR looks good and on 50 day moving average.

Ugandan Update

2010-01-17T09:31:00.003-05:00

Heritage Oil has agreed to be bought out by Tullow Oil Plc for $1.5 billion. Heritage's main operation is in Uganda, a rather quiet place outside the realm of most foreign investors. Tullow won the bid after outbidding Eni SpA so there were some heavy hitters trying to establish roots down here.

Rio Tinto has been sniffing around in the other commodities Uganda has to offer as they bought one item from IBI in the Vermiculite sector.

The ultimate penny stock is located there with a lot to offer if they are indeed legitimate, IBI (http://www.ibinvest.com/); currently trading at a penny.

They have, according to the company, the cream of the land in regards to gold and uranium and a wildly speculative upshot with rare earth elements.

Time will tell but I am aiming for the type of percentage gains that made Guma Aguiar a billionaire. The problem is: how much of one's net worth can you put into a company like this. I believe setting aside a little at a time so you can forget about ever owning it. Unless of course, you start participating in the company's activities by active research which reduces the risk and maximizes the comfort zone, which is important for a big position.

Fri Jan 15 Stats

2010-01-16T15:48:00.002-05:00

Markets Down: Global Dow 2019.33 SP500 1136.03 DJIA 10609.65 DJT 4180.79 DJU 398.07

Interest Rates Down: 2yr-0.87% 10yr-3.676%

Key monetary signals: Today strong dollar rally. EUR/USD 1.4387 USD/JPY 90.74 Gold 1130.70 Oil 77.95

Market Internals:
NYSE- 936 advance on 2134 declining issues though 195 shares managed to make new highs with 5 making new lows. Daily activity picked up at 1,407,892,789. Up volume was a measly 246,422,810 with down volume near a 5:1 advantage at 1,153,806,148. People needed a discount today in order to buy. Top 100 activity-Citigroup picked up volume at 539,785,917. #5, Pfizer with 76,623,352 and up on the day. #10, Verizon, along with telecos, having a vicious selloff, with 43,748,648 shares demanding a discount. #50, Petroleo Brasileiro, the Brazilian energy giant, up on a heavy oil selloff day at 14,126,281. #100, Kinross Gold at 8,594,952. Notes- Gold, steel, telecom and energy sold off. Airlines did as well, but they have much more appreciation potential since investors have less confidence in the sector. Next week will reveal what will transpire. Need time to study.

NASDAQ-677 advanced on options expiration as 1962 declined. 96 highs were recorded today as well as 5 lows. Volume was larger than the past week with 2,637,776,054 changing hands. 554,008,154 shares had markup while 2,044,742,551 were marked down. Top 100 most actively traded-Intel with a huge 198,003,744 led the charge. Obvious profit taking and shows the amount of long term devotion to the behemoth. #5, Etrade Financial at 63,470,347. This one missed the 2009 party. #10, Applied Materials at 36,022,004. #50, Electronic Arts at 9,530,385. #100, Windstream at 4,749,059 and another telecommunication company that suffered today.

Diary-I don't trade options expiration day but look for discounts today. Airlines are consolidating gains. Oil sell off could signify something more significant, so will natural gas suffer? Pharmaceuticals held strong, see BMY and PFE. ETFC may be a winner here.

Thursday Jan 14 Stats

2010-01-14T22:06:00.002-05:00

Markets: Global Dow 2040.25 SP500 1148.46 DJIA 10710.55 DJT 4230.91 DJU 399.56

Key Prices: EUR/USD 1.4423 USD/JPY 91.09 Gold 1140.4 Oil 78.88

Interest Rates: 2yr-0.923% 10yr-3.742%

Market Internals
NYSE: 1723 advanced as 1300 sold off today. Yesterdays rally didn't have a lot of enthusiasm going into today with volume at 888,370,586 on today's session. But 52wk highs increased again at 295 with only 1 low. Volume on higher prices was 486,215,110 with 390,067,376 on lower prices. Top 100 equities traded-#1, Citigroup with a very light 274,242,338 which means shares were broadly traded today. #5, General Electric at 57,373,204. Its shares surged at the beginning of the years so heavy volume is consolidating move. #10, JP Morgan at 37,947,141. #50, an Italian bank that goes by the name Itau Unibanco Holdings SA at 11,465,122. So 1,5,10,50 are all financials. #100 Forest Oil, on a surge, at 7,658,132. Notes-at #2 was Sprint with a big percentage move down, for some reason it cannot break $4. The hidden driver is their WiMax technology. Went down along with teleco sector, but that can change. Warrants watching. 3 airlines had heavy volume and were up. Eastman Kodak had a follow through day on heavy volume, bullish. MGM has had amazing moves up on heavy volume but today was down a trifle on less volume.

NASDAQ: The exchange had healthier internals than the NYSE today as 1539 advanced and 1082 declines with 143 making new highs and 2 making new lows. A steady 2,254,170,010 turnover occurred with 1,285,717,083 shares bid up and 943,086,432 bid down. Top 100 shares traded-Intel with a heavy (earnings announcement) share count at 151,178,218. #5, Cisco with 52,303,150 and a follow through day. Investors want this stock. #10, Applied Material at 26,922,711. #50, Citizens Republic Bancshares at 8,911,313. Can it go to a buck? #100, Amgen at 4,668,852. The pattern so far Up, had big down day, rallied back 45%, down today, then... Notes-MRNA , a big gainer yesterday, sold off. A speculative buy on dip comes into play. ACAS went from 3 to near 4 very quickly. If bought the expectation should be at least another buck or two by the end of the year.

DIARY-Options expiration tomorrow. So the key here is to look for some simple purchases out of the public's eye. Midwestern financials did well today. Microsoft has a lot of upside. People sold GOOG and bought BIDU, why not MSFT?

Chrysler CEO statement

2010-01-13T23:15:00.002-05:00

Chrysler CEO made a statement today to strike fear into people's hearts concerning the entire auto industry by saying that the world supply of cars outpace demand. At least that is what I understand as I look on Yahoo!

I believe that is an obvious statement and as the famous technician Joe Granville says, "If it's obvious it's obviously wrong." The fact of the matter is that the world supply of yesterdays cars is probably true but not the ones that customers and governments want in the future.

Please look back 4-5 years ago and see what the media was talking about concerning the record surplus of corn and how it will never go up in value. The same can be said about platinum and palladium at about the same time where the argument was that recycling will provide for all our demand.

In sum, auto companies are back and back big. The last decade saw steel behemoths arise from the furnace stronger than ever and now after GM's bankruptcy, like LTVs before, a new environment will pave the way for some amazing progress. Don't believe me? Then who would you believe: the words of a CEO in an industry notorious for bad management and even worst public statements or the market who has bid up Ford stock from a buck to over 12? James Dines keeps hammering home that the market is a barometer of the future. If that's the case...

Things are looking up!

Wed Jan 13 Stats

2010-01-13T22:09:00.002-05:00

Market Indices: Global Dow 2041.03 SP500 1145.68 DJ30 10680 DJT 4226.74 DJU 401.59

Key prices: EUR/USD 1.4541 USD/JPY 91.65 Gold 1143 Oil 79.79

Yields: 2yr-0.964% 10yr-3.793%

Market Internals:
NYSE-A complete reversal today with a large demand for issues today. 2234 issues advanced and only 824 declined. Unfortunately, the 52 week highs didn't correlate with only 217 making new highs and 2 making new lows. The other negative was that the volume was lower than yesterday at 970,285,780. 706,026,000 shares were bid up and 256,341,850 shares were bid down. Concerning top 100 most active shares-Citigroup, like yesterday, had lower volume at 409,971,980. Pfizer was 5 at 59,514,392. JP Morgan was 10 with 39,609,026. The 50th was a preferred share of Bank of America, BACS, at 12,046,574. 49 was PBR, the Brazilian energy giant, and 51 was Altria. Ending the list was Occidental Petroleum (OXY) who bought Phibro from Smith Barney trading at 7,360,234. Notes-Airlines started to move again. EastmanKodak was up on large volume. Its consolidation is over. Unless there is an antitrust matter, I cannot see how EK won't be bought out

NASDAQ-This index was the champ today. 1802 advancing issues overwhelming the 838 decliners. 107 issues made new highs and only 8 made new lows. The key was the turnover which is picking up at 2,318,359,919. Shares that were bid up outnumbered the shares on sales over 3:1. Up volume was 1,798,011,035 and Down volume was 491,123,244. Concerning top 100 most active shares-Intel led at 71,386,580 (beginning of semi- rally?) Csco at 5 with huge volume and price movement for it at 43,619,245 (usually sells off after pessimistic guidance by CEO) and rounding out the top 10 is MDRNA (biotech company) with 29,477,685. Broadcom was 9,831,461 in fiftieth place. And Ener1 (battery) at 4,614,713. Notes-ACAS was up 13% with large volume of 14,292,193. Financials are healthy if a financial company such as this is showing life. Biotechs came to life so lets see if there is some momentum there.

DIARY-Continental Airlines was a leader when I bought it but DAL and the others are playing catch up, but patience appears to start being rewarded as they started surge higher: AYR and GLS firms that supply credit for purchasing aircrafts have started strong bullish moves. Dabbled in natural gas stocks like ROSE and HERO.

TUESDAY Jan 11 stats

2010-01-12T22:36:00.003-05:00

Key markets: Global Dow 2027.37 SP500 1136.22 DJ30 10627 DJT 4203.53 DJT 398.28

Interest rates: 2yr - 0.907% 10yr - 3.717%

Price signals: EUR/USD 1.4472 USD/JPY 91.04 Gold 1129.1 Oil 79.90

Market Internals:
NYSE - 864 shares advanced in the midst of 2203 declining shares. Over 22% of the advancing shares made new highs and only 1 new lows. Activity picked up at 1,097,137,275. Though new highs were made, the up volume was tepid at 199,612,800 with surging down volume at 888,843,175. Notes-Citigroup was the most active stock, but considerably lower than usual at 469,818,289. General Electric was fifth at 64,607,886. Wells Fargo at 10 with 39,795,219. Caterpillar faced some profit takers at fiftieth place with 13,561,879. And the Gold bears were out today taking down precious metals and their respective shares like Newmont at 100th place with 8,457,933 traded. Altria was in 39th place today with a heavy 15,306,221. Alcoa sold off today, but not US Steel. Steel and copper are infrastructure plays while aluminum doesn't seem to be considered in the same mold. Also, with Citigroup volume lower, does that mean this was a broad based distribution day?

NASDAQ: This market totally underwhelmed today. 736 advanced and 1912 declined. Only 83 could make new highs as 6 made new lows. Total activity was heavier in today's session at 2,368,327,908. 581,972,901 shares were bid up, but 1,767,656,386 shares had to be sold today at a discount. There was 3:1 ratio for markdowns today. Notes-Intel led the shares traded at 69,948,472. YRCW with all its debt burdens and fears of bankruptcy surprised the market on the upside with heavy buying at 58,190,624. Cisco topped out the tenth place at 35,766,390. A semiconductor, ONNN, was in 50th place with 8,592,608 traded. An energy producer, again, ended the top 100, Delta Petroleum with 4,763,596 traded.

DIARY ENTRY FOR WEDNESDAY: NEXM was traded heavily today and may have some potential like EXXI and MMR late last week. YRCW rally bodes well, possibly, for WABASH a trailer manufacturer. My biotech call was not good for a day trade but believe either today or tomorrow the rally should continue. Grocery stores ralllied after SuperValu (and Tesco in UK) mentioned encouraging news. Dollar rally start again?

Alcoa isn't Apple or Amazon or Freeport for that matter

2010-01-12T07:13:00.003-05:00

After a move from 14 to 17, did anyone realistically expect Alcoa to shoot higher without profit taking? The economy is in the duldrums and, still, people don't realize the market is not going up because of fundamentals. Alcoa, like PG yesterday, could rally from the ugly open.

Alcoa has more of a monopoly than X, WOR, AKS, ATI, - three stocks that got away from me so why shouldn't it go higher?

Jan 10 stats

2010-01-11T22:41:00.010-05:00

Key Indices: DJIA 10663.99 DJT 4262.86 DJU 400.47 SP500 1146.98 Global Dow 2045.47

Treasuries: 2yr 0.94% 10yr 3.82%

Key price signals: EUR/USD 1.4487 USD/JPY 92.12 Gold 1149.50 Oil 81.70

Market Internals:
NYSE - 1786 issues advanced while 1261 declined. A large 523 stocks made new highs while 1 made new lows. Activity was 967,192,265. It took 572,380,940 shares to keep the market up and 379,737,405 shares sold off. Citigroup was the most active at 473,569,210, Alcoa was five at 75,731,883 and Sprint (breaking 4) at 32,249,174. Number 50 was the options play, Altria, at 11,911,052. And 100th, again, was American Express at 7,395,985. Diary: They say the Dow30 is the last to top out and appears to be the strongest currently as CAT and CVX popped. The DJ Utilities strengthened on a so-so day on rising industrial production? or simply higher energy prices? McMoran Exploration, energy, popped and a tell was EXXI activity on Friday. Earnings season started today and options expiration is on Friday so hard to make any decisions.

NASDAQ: Had a negative day with 1299 advancing issues but 1344 decliners. 211 made highs and 3 made lows, but volume was heavier on the downside: 961,018,443 shares were bid up and 1,048,521,618 were bid down. Total activity was 2,077,897,960. Microsoft led the session at 68,737,598. Energy XXI was fifth at 35,844,851 (following up Friday's move) and Micron at ten with 29,100,538. JetBlue was 50th at 7,162,658. Intuit was 100th at 4,011,641. Diary - I saw a lot of red today and believe people are hedging their bets as there will be much volatility in the days ahead. Cheap financials are moving: ACAS, PRS, HBAN, SNV

Altria options the ultimate gamble

2010-01-11T16:02:00.002-05:00

The January 2010 option called at $21 for MO is priced at a penny.
So for $1 you control $2,100. 20:1 leverage
Currently the price is $20.35 and needs to move $0.65 to show a profit, a 3.2% move.
The reason the option is cheap is that MO is not a very volatile stock and has moved up already. But as seen during the week, the volume is very heavy. A weird options expiry day could happen.

Weekly Update

2010-01-11T03:52:00.003-05:00

This is my first weekly update and will try to fine tune this as with my blog. It is very time consuming so please bare with me. Any comments, of course, will be appreciated.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY
DJIA NA /10573/10550/10618
DJT 4147/ 4135.75/ 4222.26
DJU 398.6/396.61/396.31
Global Dow NA/NA/2023.32/2046.99
EUR/USD na/1.4304/1.4314/1.4528
USD/JPY 92.29/93.16/92.18
GOLD 1129.70/1123.90/1155.70
OIL NA/82.39/NA/83.40

NYSE
advancing shares 1860/1826/1882/1858
declining shares 1210/1219/1186/1183
52wk highs 401/451/342/381
52wk lows 0/ 1/ 3/ 4
total volume na/ 1,11,811,976/ 1,193,769,108/ 994,749,061
up volume na/ 782,821,896/ 811,935,428/ 474,519,120
down volume na/ 368,212,250/ 375,209,610/ 511,977,341

NASDAQ
advancing shares 1188/1192/1562/1666
declining shares 1495/1469/1103/973
52wk highs 206/185/118/163
52wk lows 7/ 7/ 4 4
total volume 2,367,862,960/ 2,253,342,098/ 2,279,057,834/ 2,145,393,756
up volume 1,266,813,466/ 1,041,653,165/ 1,218,747,421/ 1,517,069,795
down volume 1,022,629,226/ - / 1,032,121,576/ 556,538,153

DIARY
Volume became lighter as the week progressed. The Nasdaq's internals improved but the NYSE's worsened. Judging from Friday's activity, I believe that biotech had something to do with Nasdaq's movements.

Jan 8 Stats

2010-01-10T22:29:00.004-05:00

Stock Indices: DJIA 10618 DJT 4222.26 DJU 396.31 SP500 1144.98 Global Dow 2046.99

Yields: 2yr 0.976 10yr 3.836, equates with a corporate P/E of over 25

Key prices: EUR/USD 1.4528 USD/JPY 92.18 Gold 1155.7 Oil 83.40

Market Stats:

NYSE: 1858 stocks advanced while 1183 declined. Of that, 382 made new highs and only 4 made new lows. The activity today was 994,749,061. Advancing stocks were done on shares and 511,977,341 declining issues were heavily sold with 474,519,120 share sold. NOTES: Citigroup led the active stocks today at 623,650,518. The 5th was Motorola at 75,143,724. The 10th was ATT at 27,633,500. Finance had 5 spots in the top 10. The 50th was Alcatel Lucent. And the 100th was El Paso at 7,026,252. Finance and telecommunications were active today. Finance and airlines had a selloff day. Believe this is the market digesting the breakouts. Telecos are going to be in play now. Also, energy and metal stocks started to perk traders interest: X AA and EP. The market has really liked X and AA, but EP may have its shot now. Lastly, MO moved up in the active list on an up day. So, the $20 level can be support for it and its large dividend.

NASDAQ: 1666 stocks advanced while 973 declined. Of that, 163 made new highs and just 4 made new lows. The activity today was 2,145,393,756. Today, people wanted to by tech companies on 2,145,393,756 shares. Volume on the upside was 3:1. 1,517,069,795 shares were purchased on rising shares and 556,538,153 were sold on declining issues. NOTES: Cyclacel Pharm was the heaviest traded on the Nasdaq at 78,732,013. The fifth was Applied Material at 41,212,021. Palm was 10th at 28,349,279. The 50th was Energy XXI at 9,033,361. The 100th was Hercules Offshore at 4,285,492. Microsoft, like Citigroup, is a very active issue and is setting up for a move to $35. Several penny stock biotechs were active today. From my observations, that would mean the market may consolidate while taking a chance on healthcare. Also, Huntington Bancshare which has been heavily traded was yet again in the top 10, at #9, trading with 29,858,135 shares. Semiconductors were moving so National Semiconductor and Taiwan Semiconductor may start to move as well. A financial that went up and broke $3 was American Capital (ACAS). Several energy related companies moved. The 99th was a popular one, Joy Global at 4,328,139. Hercules Offshore is a great speculative stock to trade due to its $10 trading range.

Jan 7 Stats

2010-01-07T23:54:00.003-05:00

Market Prices: Global Dow 2023.32 DJIA 10550 DJT 4135.75 DJU 396.61 S&P500 1141.69

Key Price Signals: EUR/USD 1.4314 USD/JPY 93.16 Gold 1123.90 Oil 93.16

NYSE: 1882 issues advanced while 1186 declined. Of that, 342 made new highs while 3 made lows. Total activity was 1,193,769,108. Demand was on the upside at 811,935,428 shares and 375,209,610 on the downside. Citigroup was the most active with 671,506,458. Altria the 50th actively traded at 14,983,392 (and finally over 20). At the bottom, is American Express at 8,981,628 making the trading day a financial sandwich.

NASDAQ: 1562 issues advanced while 1103 declined. Of that, 118 made new highs while 4 made lows. Total activity was 2,279,057,834. Demand was on the upside at 1,218,747,421 and 1,032,121,576 on the downside. A Midwestern bank starts off the active list: Huntington Bancshare at 77,082,232. A semi conductor in the middle, XILINX, at 9,250,700 and rounding out the top 100 is JDS Uniphase at 4,910,766.

Diary: Financials of all stripes are starting to maintain momentum. Airlines rallied again. Techs sold off. But today, the Nasdaq internals are aligned with NYSE so pare trade exited.

Jan 6 Stats

2010-01-07T07:28:00.006-05:00

US Indices: DJIA 10573 DJT 4147 DJU 398.6 SP500 1137.14

Key prices: EUR/USD 1.4304 USD/YEN 92.29 Gold 1129.7 Oil 82.39

NYSE: 1826 issues advanced while 1219 declined. Out of the advancers, 451 made new highs while only 1 out of the 1192 made a new low. Volume was 1,113,811,976: the upside with 782,821,896 and 368,212,250 on the downside. Citigroup was the most active issue at 673,256,058. The 50th was Corning at 13,449,136. The 100th is LSI Corp. at 8,847,556 .

NASDAQ: 1192 issues advanced while 1469 declined. Out of the advancers, 185 made new highs while only 7 made lows. Volume was 2,253,342,098: the upside was 1,041,653,165 and 2,253,342,098 on the downside. MESA (bankrupt) was the most active at 64,323,827. The 50th was STEC at 8,447,788. The 100th was Cadence at 4,317,638.

Speculative battery companies in play: ABAT, CBAT, AONE, XIDE
Also, the Nasdaq is breaking down. Yesterday had more declining issues and today has more downside volume. Airlines had a retreat, but believe by next week we are going to see yet another lift off. DAL and GLS were up.

Jan 5 Stats

2010-01-06T06:48:00.003-05:00

NYSE: 1860 advancers/1210 decliners out of that 401 highs/0 lows on 1,192,541,785 traded (824,073,895 up/361,557,470 down)

NASDAQ: 1188/1495 206/7 2,367,862,960 (1,266,813,446/1,022,629,226)

What I see by these stats is that declining issues outnumbered advancers in the Nasdaq. A possible new spread going long SP500 or DJ30 and short Nasdaq may work now.

Airlines are soaring

2010-01-05T15:51:00.003-05:00

My theme is that even with all the delays caused by snow storms and attempted terrorist attacks people still need to travel; additionally, the service provided by the carriers was very professional from my personal experience.

1) Genesis Lease was on Jim Cramer's show so many years ago, but it may have finally bottomed. If the cash flow can keep steady this one will pay a hefy dividend.

2) Today the airlines are not giving anyone a chance to get in so you can either wait or nibble on one. I was hemming and hawing trying to find a laggard, but I am tired of trading the wrong stocks so I am sticking with the market leader today, CAL. I bought near its top.

For some interesting economic and investing ideas, please go to

2010-01-02T13:37:00.003-05:00

please go to http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com

December 31st Stats

2010-01-01T01:34:00.002-05:00

SP500 1115.10
DJIA 10428 DJT 4099.63 DJU 398.01

up/down issues 52 high/low up/down/total volume
NYSE: 1014/2021 176/2 124,200,723 / 546,522,920 / 679,849,943
NASDAQ: 1013/1712 99/12 275,945,386 / 947,280,280 / 1,237,821,519

Airline stocks are subtly up. Even with the bad news surrounding the sector, it would appear that they may be setting up for a surprising move up.

HPQ is down over 2%. Buy on dip?

2010 Resolution

2009-12-29T18:03:00.002-05:00

1) Play the market only if you have a proven advantage.

2) Be patient; especially on down days. Remember why you got into the position in the first place.

3) Have expectations and stick to them.

4) Trust, but verify

5) It's never too late to start. Don't be afraid of buying a stock at a 52 week high. The hard work of looking for a proven winner has already been done for you.

6) For value investors, buy a value oriented fund like Third Avenue Management.

7) Take a week off. This isn't gambling.

8) If you want to gamble go to the casino.

HUNT BROTHERS/ XTO/ EXXON MOBIL

2009-12-14T10:12:00.002-05:00

LAST YEAR BEFORE NATURAL GAS JUST FLAT-OUT PLUNGED, THE HUNT BROTHERS SOLD OUT THEIR FAMILY BUSINESS TO XTO WHO HAD TO BORROW TO BUY THE COMPANY.

THE HUNT BROTHERS WERE THE SMART MONEY. XTO STILL HASN'T HIT ITS ALL TIME HIGH AS NATURAL GAS IS LOW.

EXXON ISN'T WAITING. IT BOUGHT XTO, NOT AN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY COMPANY, IN EXPECTATIONS OF PROFITS IN THE NATURAL GAS SECTOR.

EXXON IS SMART MONEY. THEY BOUGHT CHEAP IN THE DEPTHS OF A NATURAL GAS GLUT.

Raising rates to slow currency depreciation

2009-12-14T08:55:00.000-05:00

The candidate is the Australian dollar. Has it topped? Lets see.

THAKSIN SHINAWATRA: FORMER PRIME MINISTER AND SUCCESFUL BUSINESMAN IN THAILAND

2009-12-10T09:26:00.003-05:00

HE INVESTS IN UGANDA.

PER INTERVIEW IN THE ECONOMIST:

Are you doing business outside Thailand?
Yes. I do gold mining in Uganda. I start to get a licence. We’re not [doing] direct investment in production. We do exploration company. We set up company there. We have offshore company here for oil and gas.

UNLESS I'M NOT SEEING SOMETHING, IBI HAS A CHANCE OF GOING FROM $2.88 MILLION TO $30 BILLION (30 million ounce resource).

A MIND-NUMBING 1,000,000% GAIN

They will probably be bought out way before then, but a fraction of that percentage gain won't be that bad.

MAGY--Follow up, it doubled in price from 1 cent to 2

2009-12-06T10:06:00.003-05:00

Insiders to the social network for tweens backed the truck up in buying. The stock doubled and has heavy volume trading currently. A complete lottery ticket, but what tilts it into the speculators court is the insider buying. But for speculators in the stock market you need patience something that that is not favored in Las Vegas.

Speculate with broad strokes.

What do you think of this quote concerning trading

2009-12-03T04:15:00.003-05:00

Remember, trading isn't about understanding what's true, but understanding what most other traders are thinking.

A friend said this, but I strongly disagree with this quote. It is that mentality that won't get you ahead in trading. Of course, you can have a feeling what the herd will do. But you got to have a little bit of back bone and make a decision based on supply and demand. This is the only way of thinking that will separate this form of activity to gambling, in the form of say poker. If you want to play poker, play. But if you want to participate in the financial markets, think big! It may be a gamble, but it will surely be rewarding.

Is this gold and silver rally for real?

2009-12-03T02:24:00.004-05:00

The sceptism is holding back the breakout in gold in the marketplace, yet allowing a stealth market, until it dawns on the public about the implications of precious metals breaking out. Granted, if this is for real, everything with gold or mining in its name will be going up in magnitudes, but I believe there will be some solid investments as well. Two I bought with hesitation, since the last time I bought one, GROW, I had to sit and wait as it went from 12 to 4 then righ back up. Frank Holmes, the CEO, has been buying it up in small increments.

1) GLRE--GREENLIGHT CAPITAL REINSURANCE: My friend mentioned it because it is David Einhorn's version of Berkshire Hathaway. The catch is that the reinsurance company gives its money to Einhorn's company to manage so there is 2% gone for management (not done with Berkshire) and 20% gone concerning profits. But the 7 PE and the equity trading at 1.5 book value makes me overlook the costs because Im see the profitable opportunities that lie ahead. Additionally, Value Line is quite bullish as well.

2) GROW--Now it is, according to Yahoo finance, about 6times book value. But when gold was lower than this and gold stocks were in vogue, GROW pushed into the 30s area. So why can't it now? Frank Holmes plain spoken manner concerning why one should own gold should make him a household name and a household mutual fund as well. Their assets under management could be lit up and match PIMCO when the gold market finally peaks. Also with the potential of blowout appreciation in the items that GROW invests in, their assets under management could balloon and have the company earn record profits.

For your consideration...

If the S&P500 could sing

2009-11-27T04:26:00.001-05:00

Look at what's happened to me, I can't believe it myself.
Suddenly I'm up on top of the world, It should've been somebody else.
Believe it or not, I'm walking on air.
I never thought I could feel so free-.
Flying away on a wing and a prayer.
Who could it be?
Believe it or not it's just me.
It's like a light of a new day-,
It came from out of the blue.
Breaking me out of the spell I was in,
Making all of my wishes come true-. B
elieve it or not, I'm walking on air.
I never thought I could feel so free-.
Flying away on a wing and a prayer. Who could it be?
Believe it or not it's just me.

By Mike Post from Greatest American Hero

Hedge: Long LAYN Short CAT

2009-11-20T03:45:00.002-05:00

LAYN is in the mining business, like CAT is, by selling machinery. It has a better balance sheet than CAT does (less leverage) and provides more, I believe, machinery to the gold mining industry. So I believe it's a great hedge; especially with the thought that it may be bought out by a behemoth like CAT. It is also a play on the rising price of precious metals.

10% SHORT

2009-11-19T08:08:00.001-05:00

I think Caterpillar (CAT) can sell off 10%. The risk is its 52wk high. The market is bullish but some more than others, hence the word hedge. This is a great stock to short I believe.

Buy penny stock gold mining companies

2009-11-10T08:21:00.004-05:00

I think Jim Sinclair is correct and that people will be hunting for big speculative plays. If gold is here to stay, then the year 2000 for high techs will be chump change as gold mining companies will be considered, in an early stage, as financial institutions were once. 1-10,000% should be the peak on them.

If that is an exagerration then please review the year 2000 bubble where high tech companies with virtually nothing jumped from$1 to $300 per share.

Lets see.

Of course, the dollar and financial confidence may crash and that is something I do not want. But a bull market in inflation plays appears to be the long term trend currently.

CDE should be a $200 stock.

SP500 on sale again

2009-10-29T03:42:00.002-04:00

Buy the S&P500 on yesterday's panic day. There should be some type of rally. But if not, then get out with a 2-3% stop. Can it really drop again, that quickly?

10069 high to 9737 current price on the Dow is a 332 point sell off and remember that the last down day for the general market was an up day for the Dow, due to IBM's strong earnings performace.

Short Gambling?

2009-10-28T05:29:00.002-04:00

LVS, MGM, and WYNN have had impressive runs. This is a long shot but one of them may go broke, so why not way out of the money puts?

$5-10 bets may be a 10 bagger (1000% gains).

What to do

2009-10-19T12:06:00.000-04:00

The market is up so should one worry about a correction? Yes. But one can reduce the worry by buying stocks that are undervalued. As Mr. Dines, the newsletter writer, often comments: "Drink upstream from the herd"

As to today, let the market settle. There should a clear trend late today or tomorrow.

Of course, by then I will be going down the aisle and definitely not have the financial market in mind the rest of the week.

What to do today

2009-10-16T09:01:00.001-04:00

Nothing.

1) Earnings season with a lot of headline dissapointments
2) Options expiration

Enjoy the weekend!

What to do after making 100% profit

2009-10-09T05:01:00.003-04:00

My friend emailed me that he patiently waited and made 100% on his Hecla position and now asked me what to do after taking half off the table. He explicitly mentioned that he wants to put it into other cheapo companies.

Since he has a precious metal mining company we need to diversify into other cheap stocks in other sectors.

Here are some suggestions:

Battery: CBAK or XIDE
Teleco: VG
Defense: TATTF
Private equity: ACAS
Transport: YRCW
Medical: CRY or CXM
Energy: DEJ
Retail: MFGD

Uranium Miners popped yesterday

2009-10-08T07:51:00.003-04:00

LOOK AT :

CAMECO /DENISON /EQUINOX /CONTINENTAL PRECIOUS /LARAMIDE AND UEX

LOOK AT :

MEGA BELOW A $1 BUT UNDERSTAND THEY ISSUED MORE SHARES WHEN THEY FELT IT OPPORTUNE. MORE CASH EQUALS MORE PROFITS AND LESS PROFIT SHARING WITH FOREIGN COMPANIES

Vonage

2009-10-08T07:50:00.001-04:00

vonage went from $0.50 to $2.00 very quickly and will most likely keep popping since they have a viable technology.

This is a penny stock that has a clear trend in site.

UP!

Money4Gold Holdings, Inc - - This is an IBD100 waiting to happen

2009-10-08T02:32:00.003-04:00

Currently MFGD is a 23 cent stock that can easily surpass a dollar. Please go to their website for what they are all about http://www.mygoldenvelope.com/

Essentially, they buy scrap gold trhough advertising on television and the web. So what are the catalysts for a big upward move?

1) People formally value it at >$1
2) Insiders are buying
3) They are expanding and advertise in multiple languages
4) Easy to understand business
5) Big volume spike
6) This will be the ultimate stock as gold goes bonanza

Downside:
1) The insiders milk the company and the stock is basically a ponzi scam.
2) Advertising, which is done by an insider, expenses get out of hand
3) People sell their gold locally, not via web, but understand that QVC and Home Shopping Network made no sense at first either.
4) Can one justify a 30 million market cap going to $300 million?

LETS SEE!

As to Gold...

2009-10-07T04:13:00.002-04:00

I would like to think that if gold is going to go higher it would be now.
Buy whatever you want and it should be higher in a very short while.

I really like CDE, HL, AUY. Miners.
And LAYN. Equipment provider. Appears to have a good balance sheet.