Oil is providing a tremendous short opportunity.
They have been producing and producing oil throughout the recession so there is no reason for this glut to go away. Everyone is talking about the Middle East premium, but maybe that's why it's not $30 a barrel. The last time a Democrat was in office was $15 a barrel so keep that in mind.
Traders that shorted gold at $800 way back in the early 80s made a fortune. So did the ones that shorted it after the first spike down. Also, keep in mind that no one even the contrarians are talking of lower oil prices.
The trick is to hold onto your short. I used to say, and it was true, that I got stopped out at THE high of oil. But I know deep down I wouldn't have held on all the way down. The big money is in the long term trend.
4% loss, for 40-80% profit sounds good to me.
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