http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-03-26-voa71.cfm
Of course, does that mean it's a bottom? I hate being part of a club that would have me as a member.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
The bold and the profitable
Buy oil?
Buy the market?
SRS should be up $10 to panic. But at least the market isn't down 10%.
These are definitely the days that separates the fair weather trader to the one with conviction.
Buy the market?
SRS should be up $10 to panic. But at least the market isn't down 10%.
These are definitely the days that separates the fair weather trader to the one with conviction.
Short Pimco
The greatest investor since the 70s was Bill Gross. Forget Mr. Buffett and read Gross's book and his monthly letter, he's the man and just as engaging as Mr. Buffett.
But as one man rode the biggest bull market ever, and that was the bond market, with everyone grabbing onto his bootstraps, the time to get off is now before getting trampled on.
Short investment grade bonds (LQD), bondholders are going to be taking some haircuts before redemption. And, again, if anyone has ever read Mr. Graham's book, he specifically asks why limit one's upside when the downside is potentially the same for both shareholders and stakeholders. When you buy an investment bond, you want a rock solid balance sheet that is understandable and not yielding too much over treasuries. The current distortions in price, financial reporting, and vagaries in the economy warrant purchasing for speculative (possibly investment) purposes companies with great business prospects when thing right themselves. And they will, just give it time.
But as one man rode the biggest bull market ever, and that was the bond market, with everyone grabbing onto his bootstraps, the time to get off is now before getting trampled on.
Short investment grade bonds (LQD), bondholders are going to be taking some haircuts before redemption. And, again, if anyone has ever read Mr. Graham's book, he specifically asks why limit one's upside when the downside is potentially the same for both shareholders and stakeholders. When you buy an investment bond, you want a rock solid balance sheet that is understandable and not yielding too much over treasuries. The current distortions in price, financial reporting, and vagaries in the economy warrant purchasing for speculative (possibly investment) purposes companies with great business prospects when thing right themselves. And they will, just give it time.
Would you call people that take his advice, investors? or traders?
"Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.5 percent, indicating the benchmark index for U.S. equities may pare its biggest monthly advance since 1991. Morgan Stanley strategist Jason Todd said investors should sell (ed: didnt even use the word pare) U.S. stocks as earnings keep weakening. The S&P 500’s 21 percent surge since March 9 trimmed its first quarter drop to 9.7 percent."
Talk about timing. Investing is done when things are on sale. They won't be if earnings were splendid. And what are you going to do, keep it in dollars? Aren't they debasing the currency and questioning the role of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Just for my own amusement, I was curious what invest is defined as and it came up in two dictionaries as how I understand trading and investing to be.
According to Webster's dictionary, an investor 1) to commit money in order to earn a financial return (this is how Jason Todd would define it and the public understands as trading) 2) to make use of for future benefits or advantages (this is how the public would define it since down the road, markets should turn around-hopefully sooner than later)
According to Oxford's dictionary, to invest is:• verb 1 put money into financial schemes, shares, or property with the expectation of achieving a profit. 2 devote (time or energy) to an undertaking with the expectation of a worthwhile result. 3 (invest in) informal buy (something) whose usefulness will repay the cost.
Talk about timing. Investing is done when things are on sale. They won't be if earnings were splendid. And what are you going to do, keep it in dollars? Aren't they debasing the currency and questioning the role of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Just for my own amusement, I was curious what invest is defined as and it came up in two dictionaries as how I understand trading and investing to be.
According to Webster's dictionary, an investor 1) to commit money in order to earn a financial return (this is how Jason Todd would define it and the public understands as trading) 2) to make use of for future benefits or advantages (this is how the public would define it since down the road, markets should turn around-hopefully sooner than later)
According to Oxford's dictionary, to invest is:• verb 1 put money into financial schemes, shares, or property with the expectation of achieving a profit. 2 devote (time or energy) to an undertaking with the expectation of a worthwhile result. 3 (invest in) informal buy (something) whose usefulness will repay the cost.
On a weekly basis, the S&P500 is going to 1000
The powerful downtrend was broken and after a possible retracement of 50% from the top of last week, we should encounter another stiff rally up.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
The market is going up another 20%
Looking at some of the stocks that I like and own, I can finally say that ... I'm breaking even. With that in mind, the market can sell off from here, since people want to just break even. And the evidence supports this.
But I want to think that as people break even and sell out, buyers will emerge and move the price high enough to get people back into the market.
Then a sell off can truly begin. This is not based on technicals but on logic.
But I want to think that as people break even and sell out, buyers will emerge and move the price high enough to get people back into the market.
Then a sell off can truly begin. This is not based on technicals but on logic.
What's wrong with my blog?
I appreciate the viewership. If people tell me issues they have or would like any clarification on things please let me know.
It is my uncensored opinion but today my friend mentioned that I was at fault on a few things, but wouldn't elaborate.
Regards
It is my uncensored opinion but today my friend mentioned that I was at fault on a few things, but wouldn't elaborate.
Regards
I wrote this to my friend who wanted to know what I would do for a conservative account
In regards to management fees of mutual funds, I believe you should not worry about it, but whether it has strong management. If there is not strong management then fees matter.
In markets like this, I believe value investing is the way to go…I own the value fund and am looking to own the international value as well. http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/ I also like the Fidelity fund you mentioned, but EWC is similar and an etf so it's more liquid.
I would not rush into buying into anything since the markets are overbought. And all the money you are using will not be needed by you and not cause stress of any kind.
But everytime there is a panic, that is the time to buy at a discount. Since you are saving for the long term, discounts add up. In truth there is no telling what will happen, but a conservative approach should help weather the storm. If I was to have a portfolio that captures the trend of global economies and should stay the course in both an inflationary as well as deflationary scenario…All of them should be equal weight and not bought at once…If had my choice of 1, it would be IOO…the second would be tavfx
1) IOO—100 of the largest global cos.
2) SPY—SP 500 (this is optional)
3) EWJ—Japanese stock market has been bearish for 20 some years, and trading way below book value (this is optional)
4) TAVFX—classic value fund
4a) TAVIX –classic internation value fund (either or Tavfx)
5) FICDX - Fidelity fund encompassing large cap Canadian companies
5a) EWC—Canadian stock market (this sector is optional but since you are Canadian)
Since the world may be going to a basket of currencies, a resource rich and balance sheet strong economy should help diversify ones savings.
1) CYB-Chinese currency (500billion surplus)
2) FXC-Canadian (resource rich)
3) BZF-Brazilean (strongest country in s America)
4) JYF-Japanese (fiscally responsible )
5) FXF-Swiss (the swissie has been a haven in time of trouble)
6) GLD-Gold (the barbaric relic)
ALSO SET ASIDE SOME MONEY FOR SPECULATIVE STOCKS IN AN AREA THAT YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE IN…AS TIME PROGRESSES ONE OR TWO OF THEM MAY PAN OUT FOR YOU…DON’T KNOCK YOUR OWN LIFE EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE IT WILL HELP!!!!!!!!
In markets like this, I believe value investing is the way to go…I own the value fund and am looking to own the international value as well. http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/ I also like the Fidelity fund you mentioned, but EWC is similar and an etf so it's more liquid.
I would not rush into buying into anything since the markets are overbought. And all the money you are using will not be needed by you and not cause stress of any kind.
But everytime there is a panic, that is the time to buy at a discount. Since you are saving for the long term, discounts add up. In truth there is no telling what will happen, but a conservative approach should help weather the storm. If I was to have a portfolio that captures the trend of global economies and should stay the course in both an inflationary as well as deflationary scenario…All of them should be equal weight and not bought at once…If had my choice of 1, it would be IOO…the second would be tavfx
1) IOO—100 of the largest global cos.
2) SPY—SP 500 (this is optional)
3) EWJ—Japanese stock market has been bearish for 20 some years, and trading way below book value (this is optional)
4) TAVFX—classic value fund
4a) TAVIX –classic internation value fund (either or Tavfx)
5) FICDX - Fidelity fund encompassing large cap Canadian companies
5a) EWC—Canadian stock market (this sector is optional but since you are Canadian)
Since the world may be going to a basket of currencies, a resource rich and balance sheet strong economy should help diversify ones savings.
1) CYB-Chinese currency (500billion surplus)
2) FXC-Canadian (resource rich)
3) BZF-Brazilean (strongest country in s America)
4) JYF-Japanese (fiscally responsible )
5) FXF-Swiss (the swissie has been a haven in time of trouble)
6) GLD-Gold (the barbaric relic)
ALSO SET ASIDE SOME MONEY FOR SPECULATIVE STOCKS IN AN AREA THAT YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE IN…AS TIME PROGRESSES ONE OR TWO OF THEM MAY PAN OUT FOR YOU…DON’T KNOCK YOUR OWN LIFE EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE IT WILL HELP!!!!!!!!
Missing the boat
I read a few months ago in Old School Investing about ValueVision which was and, I assume, is a value play. But as Mr. Buffett would term it: it's "cigar butt" investing.
On the other hand there are other ways of measuring value and, as such, tend to appreciate and continue doing so longer than people think possible. Today, I am thinking about BeyondCommerce.
While everyone is focused on the new billionaire from Harvard, Mark Zuckerberg, and his social networking site and pouring or investing hundreds of millions into it and like competitors, people are missing the David in all this: BeyondCommerce and its social networking site, Boomj.
It has started from a small base, but actually is focused on making money, not burning it. And the CEO has succesfully started several companies and managed a billion dollar one. While others flock for scraps of success, I'm grabbing hold tight to success.
My only concern is that it will be a ClearWire, which as of yet, hasn't really outperformed or lived up to the expectations of that wonderful CEO, Mr. McGraw. But the idea of bartering and community style businesses intrigue me and may to others as well.
On the other hand there are other ways of measuring value and, as such, tend to appreciate and continue doing so longer than people think possible. Today, I am thinking about BeyondCommerce.
While everyone is focused on the new billionaire from Harvard, Mark Zuckerberg, and his social networking site and pouring or investing hundreds of millions into it and like competitors, people are missing the David in all this: BeyondCommerce and its social networking site, Boomj.
It has started from a small base, but actually is focused on making money, not burning it. And the CEO has succesfully started several companies and managed a billion dollar one. While others flock for scraps of success, I'm grabbing hold tight to success.
My only concern is that it will be a ClearWire, which as of yet, hasn't really outperformed or lived up to the expectations of that wonderful CEO, Mr. McGraw. But the idea of bartering and community style businesses intrigue me and may to others as well.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Things don't add up
1+1=2
1) The financials were weak in yesterday's rally
2) Commercial real estate was down early, but closed up.
3) Gold acting very strong in a seasonally weak period
4) Short squeezes, like the one that happened with Porsche, are quick and painful which appears to be the case with short sellers presently. I shorted Apple at about 84 and is now 105 - I mean how high can it go? (famous last words) Of course, I hedge with Cisco, but it has been a laggard until yesterday.
My new theory about bull and bear markets is simply that bull markets go up roughly with periods of spikes while bear markets begin by subtle sell offs then collapses. So the next leg down should be as quick as it goes up. Why? Because everyone that is getting in on this market rally figures that they can get out before the next guy as the market sells off. Which I believe is why the market keeps rallying.
No one believes this rally, still, so it probably can go much higher, but that doesn't mean hedging is inappropriate, but MORE important. TO reduce volatility and have insurance if the sell off begins again in earnest.
1) The financials were weak in yesterday's rally
2) Commercial real estate was down early, but closed up.
3) Gold acting very strong in a seasonally weak period
4) Short squeezes, like the one that happened with Porsche, are quick and painful which appears to be the case with short sellers presently. I shorted Apple at about 84 and is now 105 - I mean how high can it go? (famous last words) Of course, I hedge with Cisco, but it has been a laggard until yesterday.
My new theory about bull and bear markets is simply that bull markets go up roughly with periods of spikes while bear markets begin by subtle sell offs then collapses. So the next leg down should be as quick as it goes up. Why? Because everyone that is getting in on this market rally figures that they can get out before the next guy as the market sells off. Which I believe is why the market keeps rallying.
No one believes this rally, still, so it probably can go much higher, but that doesn't mean hedging is inappropriate, but MORE important. TO reduce volatility and have insurance if the sell off begins again in earnest.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
I'm confused
on my buy gold signal since that goes along the lines of what Cramer likes. But I call them like I feel them, or is that see them?
The beginning of legalization of marijuana
Obama got elected by the youth and this is what the youth wants.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090326/pl_politico/20526
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090326/pl_politico/20526
Significance of yesterday
The Treasury secretary of the US mentioned his openness to a Chinese proposal to a more basket oriented global currency. This in effect puts into question the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world. Additionally, it puts to bed the charade of a strong dollar policy. Of course, Mr. Geithner switched gears when the dollar dropped heavily after those shocking and downright unAmerican words.
Treasuries sold off since down the road investors know not what yield would compensate them for holding US dollars. The top appears in, concerning this market. Asset market (and anything not nailed down) valuations are also put into question.
As currencies bounce around, one thing stayed consistent and that was gold. Though I hesitate, I believe it is a screaming buy.
Treasuries sold off since down the road investors know not what yield would compensate them for holding US dollars. The top appears in, concerning this market. Asset market (and anything not nailed down) valuations are also put into question.
As currencies bounce around, one thing stayed consistent and that was gold. Though I hesitate, I believe it is a screaming buy.
Reynolds of America
won a law suit yesterday and the stock was up alongside Lorillard and Universal Corp, but no Altria.
Is that a discrepancy?
Is that a discrepancy?
Pharma
I have been noticing Teva and Mylan getting sued a lot for patent infringement. I am not clear if it is because I am reading the financial news more often or the trend for generics is over.
But I do know that it is clearly a time for mergers and acquisitions in the pharma industry. And probably a good time to buy some.
They pay on average, 5% dividend. What's there to hate?
My list is 1) AMGN 2) MATK (at book value) 3) KG 4) BIIB 5) SNY (some news on diversification in food products) 6) BMY (buy out candidate though nothing has happened)
But I do know that it is clearly a time for mergers and acquisitions in the pharma industry. And probably a good time to buy some.
They pay on average, 5% dividend. What's there to hate?
My list is 1) AMGN 2) MATK (at book value) 3) KG 4) BIIB 5) SNY (some news on diversification in food products) 6) BMY (buy out candidate though nothing has happened)
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Buy the Peso
I have no idea if it will go lower but the International Herald Tribune had a wonderful editiorial on the benefits of Mexico and I tend to agree.
Plus this book by Don Winslow opened my eye to currency shenanigans down south and believe this is one of those times.
And for that matter as currencies go up, buy the Brazilian Real. Also pays out a nice yield.
Plus this book by Don Winslow opened my eye to currency shenanigans down south and believe this is one of those times.
And for that matter as currencies go up, buy the Brazilian Real. Also pays out a nice yield.
My friend was cited in the Daily Reckoning
a site that made me bullish gold back when it was $400 an ounce and Bill Bonner kept pounding the table saying get in because this is it.
Please read it and meditate on the implications....
Kurt Vonnegut said it best "and so it goes..."
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-lint-age/2009/01/19/
Please read it and meditate on the implications....
Kurt Vonnegut said it best "and so it goes..."
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-lint-age/2009/01/19/
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
"The rally has been rather disappointing..."
These are the words of Marc Faber concerning long term treasuries...
I mean a $300billion buyout of bonds should imply a huge bond rally but the implication of not rallying shows the appearance of exhaustion and loss of upside momentum.
So for those who don't believe a word a politician says...
Short treasuries
I mean a $300billion buyout of bonds should imply a huge bond rally but the implication of not rallying shows the appearance of exhaustion and loss of upside momentum.
So for those who don't believe a word a politician says...
Short treasuries
If the theory of the market rally
is for the Treasury to defend the bond market and not the US dollar then why was the price of bonds down today?
About -0.87%
It appears to be a short squeeze. And the news concerning the macro economic picture is very confusing for me. It's very important to keep an eye out for reversals and buying cheap insurance against another market sell off. Even if the market will continue its bullish streak, a 50% retracement of the 20% rise may be in order.
I like JPM puts way out of the money.
About -0.87%
It appears to be a short squeeze. And the news concerning the macro economic picture is very confusing for me. It's very important to keep an eye out for reversals and buying cheap insurance against another market sell off. Even if the market will continue its bullish streak, a 50% retracement of the 20% rise may be in order.
I like JPM puts way out of the money.
Monday, March 23, 2009
JAVA was down today
after the 100% upmove last week concerning IBM takeover rumors and because there was no takeover announced this weekend as traders had plenty of other stocks to push around.
JAVA was a buy today. And if one measures retained earnings as a key measure of book value, I would say research and development for a tech company is the same thing ala Philip Fisher, a name not bandied around a lot nowadays.
JAVA was a buy today. And if one measures retained earnings as a key measure of book value, I would say research and development for a tech company is the same thing ala Philip Fisher, a name not bandied around a lot nowadays.
Late night drinks with old friends
I met a new friend of mine at a local bar in Tel Aviv on Saturday and I had a hard time not talking about the stock market and where the world is heading too. When my friends from NYC came by to have a couple drinks with us, I had nothing to say but to buy gold.
My Israeli friend was non plussed by the situation and told me that this will be a non financial conversation which is fine but what to talk about? Also, he implied the shallowness of my focus and called into question what the hell I spend most of my time doing. I believe there is truth to this matter since I do get obsessed about certain things to the detriment of other items that are important to anyone's life. But at the end of the night, he was trying to convince the New Yorker to buy gold while I was talking to his wife about life and starting all over.
Flashforward to today where I am walking on Dizengoff admiring the beautiful girls, stopping in every book shop, but not picking up any new clothes for spring nor striking up conversations with any eligible girl; instead I'm always accosted by people who need charity.
I guess I always focus on what's important or the loftier things in life or what the price of coffee is in Brazil, but the truth is it's the simple things in life I crave and afraid of getting...like happiness? satisfaction? success?
My Israeli friend was non plussed by the situation and told me that this will be a non financial conversation which is fine but what to talk about? Also, he implied the shallowness of my focus and called into question what the hell I spend most of my time doing. I believe there is truth to this matter since I do get obsessed about certain things to the detriment of other items that are important to anyone's life. But at the end of the night, he was trying to convince the New Yorker to buy gold while I was talking to his wife about life and starting all over.
Flashforward to today where I am walking on Dizengoff admiring the beautiful girls, stopping in every book shop, but not picking up any new clothes for spring nor striking up conversations with any eligible girl; instead I'm always accosted by people who need charity.
I guess I always focus on what's important or the loftier things in life or what the price of coffee is in Brazil, but the truth is it's the simple things in life I crave and afraid of getting...like happiness? satisfaction? success?
The Obama era stocks
So far I have found three unrecognized trends that the Obamas' are spearheading and believe it will catch on:
1) Health food (Michelle is keen on organic): WFMI or UNFI
2) Men's wear: MW or JOSB
3) Internet advertisement backed with person to person contact (in the Economist this week, there was a side article about how Obama is continuing his online campaigning with a human touch): BYOC (Beyond Commerce, a penny stock with 19mln market cap, but led by a man who ran a billion dollar company: yes, 1,000,000,000 - that's 9 zeroes)
1) Health food (Michelle is keen on organic): WFMI or UNFI
2) Men's wear: MW or JOSB
3) Internet advertisement backed with person to person contact (in the Economist this week, there was a side article about how Obama is continuing his online campaigning with a human touch): BYOC (Beyond Commerce, a penny stock with 19mln market cap, but led by a man who ran a billion dollar company: yes, 1,000,000,000 - that's 9 zeroes)
Pulled the trigger
on Citigroup since I was up on it and want to focus more on other companies with better balance sheets.
What spooked me is an article in Bloomberg concerning the idea being floated around stuffing bond holders with lower payout or share issuance. This did not come into the equation when I was bullish Citigroup.
Presently, I am more focused on GE. If Citigroup is strong, surely GE is stronger. And don't call me Shirley!
What spooked me is an article in Bloomberg concerning the idea being floated around stuffing bond holders with lower payout or share issuance. This did not come into the equation when I was bullish Citigroup.
Presently, I am more focused on GE. If Citigroup is strong, surely GE is stronger. And don't call me Shirley!
When things are tough
bad things happen. An unfortunate event with a FedEx airplane in Japan occurred this morning and these events tend to snowball. Please be patient with this company since there is able and visible management with a business that is hard to replicate and in demand 24/7.
This quote
was taken from the blog coffeemessiah.blogspot.com and is true about democracy and capitalism. Humans need to grow and learn...it's in our dna.
To exist is to change
to change is to mature
to mature is to go on
creating oneself endlessly.
Henri Berqson
French Philosopher
1859 - 1941
To exist is to change
to change is to mature
to mature is to go on
creating oneself endlessly.
Henri Berqson
French Philosopher
1859 - 1941
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Makes No Cents
1) Oil was up again on Friday but the drillers were down and have not broken out as of yet(?).
2) Gold was down but not the miners.
3) Silver was up but not PAAS and SSRI
4) Financials were down, but not C
5) The price of U.TO (proxy for uranium price) was up but Mega Uranium had a big sell off
Disparities abound. And disparities will always exist. But not for long.
2) Gold was down but not the miners.
3) Silver was up but not PAAS and SSRI
4) Financials were down, but not C
5) The price of U.TO (proxy for uranium price) was up but Mega Uranium had a big sell off
Disparities abound. And disparities will always exist. But not for long.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Commercial Real Estate
was a laggard during this fabulous run up we had in the market. It would appear that a continuation of the downward motion may accelerate as the market sells off its overbought condition.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
FedEx misses earnings
But they still made earnings. And if someone out there actually invests and doesn't trade then earnings divided by book is what you are earning and that percentage is greater than keeping it in the bank. Additionally, you are getting those earnings below the recognized value of the company so then one needs to divide earnings by share price which in this case is $1.26/43.05 (last night's close)=2.9% and that is only 3rd quarter earnings.
From a great writer - Samuel Beckett
The question of bad economic news with a nice, stiff market rally is best summed up by this famed writer whose letters were just published.
"Miss Costello said to me: 'You haven't a good word to say for anyone but the failures.' I thought it was quite the nicest thing anyone had said to me for a long time."
In short, honesty is the best policy and the market is reflecting that.
"Miss Costello said to me: 'You haven't a good word to say for anyone but the failures.' I thought it was quite the nicest thing anyone had said to me for a long time."
In short, honesty is the best policy and the market is reflecting that.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
If
the market can actually go up today would be very encouraging.
One small little hint is that Citi is up at the open. Of course, that can change.
One small little hint is that Citi is up at the open. Of course, that can change.
Follow up to the Pounded Pound
The Pound is attempting a double bottom. It is not in worst shape than other countries. Additionally, Gordon Brown is on the way out, as is his liberal party. This may indeed be the only country of late which will have a conservative government in power (this concept was brought up to me by my friend). The UK has faced rocky roads before and this is no different.
Though some might sing "Anarchy in the UK" it's not going to happen.
Though some might sing "Anarchy in the UK" it's not going to happen.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
What's the Scor?
comScore keeps statistics on internet use. I liken this to the early days of ratings agencies because at the end of the day, advertisers and businessmen need to know where the eyeballs and pockets are going to in the virtual world.
Armed with a passion for statistics and showing up to work and trading below book value is a worthy place to park ones money.
Yes, there are many competitors, but that is business...
But as Woody Allen says, "90% of show business is just showing up."
Armed with a passion for statistics and showing up to work and trading below book value is a worthy place to park ones money.
Yes, there are many competitors, but that is business...
But as Woody Allen says, "90% of show business is just showing up."
Monday, March 16, 2009
At what point in time
can you buy FedEx below book value?
I'm looking at ValueLine and don't see that ever in its statistical study.
I'm looking at ValueLine and don't see that ever in its statistical study.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Something smells phony
As this market set up for a vicious rally I noticed a few things of which none has occurred!
1) Barney Frank spread the word that the uptick rule is being reconsidered.
2) Mr. Pandit and Mr. Lewis claiming 2 months of record profits, excluding this and that, and gee just two months...lets see some annual or semi annual profits!
3) Mr. Immelt saying that GE has the fortitude to withstand Armageddon (granted I don't want this to happen).
4) F successful negotiations with the UAW and GM declining an additional 2 billion of aid.
The timing appears to be orchestrated to have maximum effect in squeezing the short sellers. But that doesn't mean this rally isn't sustainable.
1) Barney Frank spread the word that the uptick rule is being reconsidered.
2) Mr. Pandit and Mr. Lewis claiming 2 months of record profits, excluding this and that, and gee just two months...lets see some annual or semi annual profits!
3) Mr. Immelt saying that GE has the fortitude to withstand Armageddon (granted I don't want this to happen).
4) F successful negotiations with the UAW and GM declining an additional 2 billion of aid.
The timing appears to be orchestrated to have maximum effect in squeezing the short sellers. But that doesn't mean this rally isn't sustainable.
The Economist a more reputable source of information
and definitely better written has come out in support of legalizing drugs.
The stats, background, and historical perspective the magazine provides is truly a worthwhile read and the amount of sentences I underlined is truly astonishing.
The US spends $40 billion a year on drug reinforcement and yet as far as I can see it doesn't work except for catching Coolio's crack habit. (I remember that I read, I believe, in Rolling Stone magazine about 10 years ago how Coolio mentioned that he "cracked" his drug habit by being alone in the forest or some sort like that) Additionally, the incarceration of drug addicts creates a negative loop that prevents them from advancing in society and what would have happened if President Obama was caught in his early days? Like the concept of banruptcy where a man can start over, this should occur with drug users; many of whom are kids who really don't know better. An amusing side note is that having family support to some is like being locked up.
Fear shouldn't be the rule of the day, but understanding what is occurring in the world now! The black market is almost like an invisible government with money, guns, and organization and to some degrees is treated like gold is to monetary stability-not relevant. Lets face the fact that we can burden ourselves with a war that has gone on longer and killed more people than Iraq and Afghanistan and cost more money.
And getting back to fundamentals, the US was founded on tobacco growers. The constitution was written on hemp. If one is truly a value investor and understands what people want then buy fearlessly companies that sell an item that for at least a moment in a persons day, he is at peace with himself. Tobacco may be unhealthy but so is 1000:1 leveraged balance sheets which causes downfalls of governments, but where is the outrage?
I believe Altria is a play on the possible legalization though drug companies may be the winner as they will be able to tweak the drugs. Though Universal Corp would benefit as it is the provider of tobacco leaf and could easily set aside land for the cultivation of hemp.
So when the world wakes up: GOLD, NUCLEAR, TOBACCO will be the winners. Human nature doesn't change, but governments do.
The stats, background, and historical perspective the magazine provides is truly a worthwhile read and the amount of sentences I underlined is truly astonishing.
The US spends $40 billion a year on drug reinforcement and yet as far as I can see it doesn't work except for catching Coolio's crack habit. (I remember that I read, I believe, in Rolling Stone magazine about 10 years ago how Coolio mentioned that he "cracked" his drug habit by being alone in the forest or some sort like that) Additionally, the incarceration of drug addicts creates a negative loop that prevents them from advancing in society and what would have happened if President Obama was caught in his early days? Like the concept of banruptcy where a man can start over, this should occur with drug users; many of whom are kids who really don't know better. An amusing side note is that having family support to some is like being locked up.
Fear shouldn't be the rule of the day, but understanding what is occurring in the world now! The black market is almost like an invisible government with money, guns, and organization and to some degrees is treated like gold is to monetary stability-not relevant. Lets face the fact that we can burden ourselves with a war that has gone on longer and killed more people than Iraq and Afghanistan and cost more money.
And getting back to fundamentals, the US was founded on tobacco growers. The constitution was written on hemp. If one is truly a value investor and understands what people want then buy fearlessly companies that sell an item that for at least a moment in a persons day, he is at peace with himself. Tobacco may be unhealthy but so is 1000:1 leveraged balance sheets which causes downfalls of governments, but where is the outrage?
I believe Altria is a play on the possible legalization though drug companies may be the winner as they will be able to tweak the drugs. Though Universal Corp would benefit as it is the provider of tobacco leaf and could easily set aside land for the cultivation of hemp.
So when the world wakes up: GOLD, NUCLEAR, TOBACCO will be the winners. Human nature doesn't change, but governments do.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Printing Carbon Credits Plays and
it just doesn't add up as to why they are selling off the way they are. Can't people look at the big picture here?
USEC has the risk that its new centrifuge won't work but they are still the only show in town concerning enriched uranium.
NRG and EXC and CEG are nuclear utility plays with a heavy debt load. That doesn't equate to bankruptcy since savvy investors can see a little further ahead than a year and anticipate the demand for carbon free utilities.
Although CLH and SRCL are waste recyclers in a specialized industry, VE and WMI are leaders in waste management and a crucial player in the reduction of waste and its carbon emissions.
ORA is a company that specializes in the cleanest and least likely to leave a footprint energy - geothermal and has production throughout the globe, Kenya was the latest.
All of these have tremendous cash flow and should be bought for the long term...it will be like printing money ala FED...
USEC has the risk that its new centrifuge won't work but they are still the only show in town concerning enriched uranium.
NRG and EXC and CEG are nuclear utility plays with a heavy debt load. That doesn't equate to bankruptcy since savvy investors can see a little further ahead than a year and anticipate the demand for carbon free utilities.
Although CLH and SRCL are waste recyclers in a specialized industry, VE and WMI are leaders in waste management and a crucial player in the reduction of waste and its carbon emissions.
ORA is a company that specializes in the cleanest and least likely to leave a footprint energy - geothermal and has production throughout the globe, Kenya was the latest.
All of these have tremendous cash flow and should be bought for the long term...it will be like printing money ala FED...
BUY CRUDE and the POUND
Oil is consolidating its strong surge and is ready for a move higher.
As for the Pound, I believe the Pound has what you call a double bottom. Place the stop 8% below the 52 week low. Wherever it finally winds up, it should have a nice rally.
As for the Pound, I believe the Pound has what you call a double bottom. Place the stop 8% below the 52 week low. Wherever it finally winds up, it should have a nice rally.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
A mining rally in the uranium sector?
Cameco had a huge rights offering and the stock has actually stayed strong after the news while selling off before.
I think people are expecting them to make some timely purchases but the small cap companies aren't appreciating on this. Is this a discrepancy?
It won't be if this actually occurs!
I think people are expecting them to make some timely purchases but the small cap companies aren't appreciating on this. Is this a discrepancy?
It won't be if this actually occurs!
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
I'm American
and have made scoffish remarks concerning the French and Europe in general but it's like rooting for your team and booing the opponent. But now the opponent has joined our side - capitalism.
The fact remains that the French are doing something right in business. Everywhere I read, Sarkozy is making deals and pushing for bigger slices for French companies.
1) Areva is signing contracts where the US should be, concerning nuclear plants.
2) Total is building new oil pipelines where others, due to political constraints, fear to go.
3) Veolia has the game plan right with a portfolio of water, waste, energy, and a fat dividend.
Barring a global conflict, shareholders throughout the globe will be rewarded, as the big guns realize that Sarkozy is a capitalist with a good looking wife.
The fact remains that the French are doing something right in business. Everywhere I read, Sarkozy is making deals and pushing for bigger slices for French companies.
1) Areva is signing contracts where the US should be, concerning nuclear plants.
2) Total is building new oil pipelines where others, due to political constraints, fear to go.
3) Veolia has the game plan right with a portfolio of water, waste, energy, and a fat dividend.
Barring a global conflict, shareholders throughout the globe will be rewarded, as the big guns realize that Sarkozy is a capitalist with a good looking wife.
Waste Management
The Economist about a week ago had a great insert on waste management throughout the world and I am sold on it, but it appears the market is not so believe it is a good buy.
Today, even with possible dividend cut, VE looks good as does the stalwart WMI.
Today, even with possible dividend cut, VE looks good as does the stalwart WMI.
Mr. Pandit's key line from his memo
...and where we are today, including our full commitment to our global network and presence in over 100 countries, which is our key competitive differentiator
If the world is not going to hell, then you have to own it - even if it is for trading purposes.
If the world is not going to hell, then you have to own it - even if it is for trading purposes.
Citi is up 20% .Now it just has to go up 400%
Still the trend is down so fade the open, sell the dogs, and buy, as Smiegle says, "my precious."
Like Gold---long term
Like Oil---supply is limited
Like time and state of mind---not enough of it with such depressing state of affairs
and anything else you like, for me it's stocks.
So far today deserves a
:)
Like Gold---long term
Like Oil---supply is limited
Like time and state of mind---not enough of it with such depressing state of affairs
and anything else you like, for me it's stocks.
So far today deserves a
:)
Carl Icahn has a good streak
with biotech companies such as Imclone (granted it's the only one I can think of but I am extrapolating) so why not Biogen (BIIB)? Stop is 52 week low.
Goofball Investing vs. Looking at the Situation & Understanding history
Wal Mart is down on union fears which is valid since the last decade we experienced a backlash to Wal Mart's style of business, but that would imply all businesses that have profited at the unions expense will reverse.
Kroger's which has been a staple for over a 100 years is trading with a PE less than 10 and a healthy union agreement. Kroger's faced the US economy throughout the turbulent 20th century and will do so now. So while investors bought Wal Mart they should have been buying Krogers.
US Steel operates with a union and a healthy relationship and has been around since J. Piermont Morgan merged his steel operations with Andrew Carnegie's, again over 100 years ago. Another centarian, AK Steel, formerly the first adapter of scrap steel (I believe) known as Armco, operates with a union, albeit not always on such great terms. Nucor, which every Tom Dick and Harry flocks to, has become what it is from not having a union like Wal Mart. Don't read the balance, but understand the trend!
Short Nucor till the cows come home, and buy Steel. Nucor, like Apple, have seen their better days. And short any other company that is union free and made outlandish profits as a result. One can even short Wal Mart since the stop would ultimately be its 52wk high.
Of course, Nucor could be bought out, but I would say the indicator would be they sell off their scrap brokerage, David Joseph. That was by far a lousy purchase which we have seen several cash flow rich companies to have done only a year ago. Look at what Dow Chemical is stuck with now!
Long Kroger/Short Wal Mart
Long US Steel/ Short Nucor
Kroger's which has been a staple for over a 100 years is trading with a PE less than 10 and a healthy union agreement. Kroger's faced the US economy throughout the turbulent 20th century and will do so now. So while investors bought Wal Mart they should have been buying Krogers.
US Steel operates with a union and a healthy relationship and has been around since J. Piermont Morgan merged his steel operations with Andrew Carnegie's, again over 100 years ago. Another centarian, AK Steel, formerly the first adapter of scrap steel (I believe) known as Armco, operates with a union, albeit not always on such great terms. Nucor, which every Tom Dick and Harry flocks to, has become what it is from not having a union like Wal Mart. Don't read the balance, but understand the trend!
Short Nucor till the cows come home, and buy Steel. Nucor, like Apple, have seen their better days. And short any other company that is union free and made outlandish profits as a result. One can even short Wal Mart since the stop would ultimately be its 52wk high.
Of course, Nucor could be bought out, but I would say the indicator would be they sell off their scrap brokerage, David Joseph. That was by far a lousy purchase which we have seen several cash flow rich companies to have done only a year ago. Look at what Dow Chemical is stuck with now!
Long Kroger/Short Wal Mart
Long US Steel/ Short Nucor
Friday, March 6, 2009
Shotgun marriages--
Obviously bankrupt autos and failing mega banks and quite possibly large looming refinancing are the culprit for this shenanigan.
1) Could GM, F, Chrysler form a national auto company? could a foreign auto firm buy them out?
2) Could Citigroup be bought out like Bear Stearns?
3) Could GE be telling the (business) truth?
4) Are the unemployment numbers the worst?
We'll see. Stay tuned!
1) Could GM, F, Chrysler form a national auto company? could a foreign auto firm buy them out?
2) Could Citigroup be bought out like Bear Stearns?
3) Could GE be telling the (business) truth?
4) Are the unemployment numbers the worst?
We'll see. Stay tuned!
Luck of the IRish
As St. Paddy's day is coming up, the 17th of this month, go out have a beer and buy that cheap stock Ingersoll-Rand (IR).
They are moving their headquarters from Bermuda to Ireland and again shows the leadership of the company who employ US citizens but also watch their cost basis by moving to areas that protect shareholder wealth.
Unfortunately, Berkshire Hathaway owns it and I have been noticing that anytime a value investor of note buys a dog it stays that way for quite awhile, but when you least expect it this stock may double in price while getting paid a dividend.
There is tremendous moat in this company and growth in air conditioning if we can start building up that hot area called Africa. But first we got to kick out that tyrant in Sudan.
St. Patrick was known for converting the heathens to God abiding citizens in Ireland, PEACEFULLY, so why can't we do that in Africa?
They are moving their headquarters from Bermuda to Ireland and again shows the leadership of the company who employ US citizens but also watch their cost basis by moving to areas that protect shareholder wealth.
Unfortunately, Berkshire Hathaway owns it and I have been noticing that anytime a value investor of note buys a dog it stays that way for quite awhile, but when you least expect it this stock may double in price while getting paid a dividend.
There is tremendous moat in this company and growth in air conditioning if we can start building up that hot area called Africa. But first we got to kick out that tyrant in Sudan.
St. Patrick was known for converting the heathens to God abiding citizens in Ireland, PEACEFULLY, so why can't we do that in Africa?
Thursday, March 5, 2009
What the market needs is spinach
Pluto is bashing Popeye and Olive Oil is frantic. Where is the spinach going to come from. Liquidity seems shot. Investors have given up hope. GM is broke.
Hard to say, but it always happens, at the last moment, or in the waning minutes of any given episode, Popeye gets that spinach and saves the day.
Buy???????
Hard to say, but it always happens, at the last moment, or in the waning minutes of any given episode, Popeye gets that spinach and saves the day.
Buy???????
Classic Big-Cap mistake
VocalTec's biggest shareholder, Cisco, sold back its shares to the company. I believe, like all market bottoms, it was time to increase its stake; especially since it was trading below value. Instead, it's rumored that Cisco is looking to buy VMware. Since shareholders don't know any better they dumped more VocalTec shares into the market.
What I believe you are seeing is the case for Cisco to take a tax writeoff as opposed to profiting from the immense opportunity that VocalTec may yet poise.
Remember the big mining companies sold world class mining properties to juniors when commodity prices were greatly depressed-this could be another example of that in the tech world.
Lets see where it goes from here!
What I believe you are seeing is the case for Cisco to take a tax writeoff as opposed to profiting from the immense opportunity that VocalTec may yet poise.
Remember the big mining companies sold world class mining properties to juniors when commodity prices were greatly depressed-this could be another example of that in the tech world.
Lets see where it goes from here!
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Flowers (FLWS) vs iPods (AAPL)
This past generation was trained to download music and videos, post profiles, read the news and share stuff via the web and even auction stuff off, but as time passed someone came along to offer it at rock bottom prices, or as the Beatles sung "the best things in life are free..."
But you cannot do that with flowers. Who really likes the fake kind?
In the heart of the depression, 1931, flowers were in demand as evidence by my favorite Chaplin film City Lights concerning Chaplin's love of a flower girl.
Before people were trained to buy diamonds, they bought flowers. Louis XIV was obsessed with them and are still a great draw in the Versaille.
And as spring is coming, and the air becomes pleasant with budding trees, birds chirping and young lovers hearts beating, say it with flowers. FLWS
But you cannot do that with flowers. Who really likes the fake kind?
In the heart of the depression, 1931, flowers were in demand as evidence by my favorite Chaplin film City Lights concerning Chaplin's love of a flower girl.
Before people were trained to buy diamonds, they bought flowers. Louis XIV was obsessed with them and are still a great draw in the Versaille.
And as spring is coming, and the air becomes pleasant with budding trees, birds chirping and young lovers hearts beating, say it with flowers. FLWS
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
More thoughts from my friend Aaron who has been very right concerning the trend....Please read!
I hope everything is finding you well.
With this market taking a steep 4% drop today across the board, I decided it was time to share my market view today.
First, I want to start off by stating my positions as follows:
US Equities: Bearish
-Caveat: Market is quite oversold; I would not take big short positions if any at all.
--US Equities are headed for 5000 Dow and S&P 500 to 500. I view this as a conservative forecast that does not take into consideration any sovereign credit defaults or other major events, such as massive global nationalization programs.
International Equities: Bearish
-Caveat: Likely markets are more oversold than US markets.
US Treasuries: Bullish Short-Term Maturities, Neutral Long-Term Maturities
-Prefer to be short-term, which is either 3-month or less TBills. Longer term maturities, such as 5-, 10-, and 30-year, will likely perform well if there is a significant rally due to deflation. The deflation/inflation dynamic is clearly favoring deflation, but the unequivocally massive fiscal stimulus plan and aggressive expansion of monetary policy the Federal Reserve have put in place a ticking inflation time bomb. High-yield savings account and certificate of deposits of 1 year or less may eke out a better return than treasuries. However, keep in mind FDIC insurance limits, etc.
Foreign Exchange Spot:
-Extreme Bearish: Russian Ruble
-Bearish: EUR, GBP, NZD, and AUD
-Bullish: USD, CHF, and JPY
-Neutral: CAD
--Currencies on my bearish list are quite oversold, however, non-leverage to mildly leveraged positions in EUR and GBP are worthwhile, because they will likely go parity. The EUR also has a possibility of breaking up due to weak economies pushing the currency hard against the wall. A break-up of the EUR would also contain major downside event risk that would domino into other markets.
--Currencies on my bullish list, specifically CHF and JPY, are better buys now than before as they have sold off making them 2 great currencies to create a basket with the USD when shorting weaker currencies.
--CAD has the ability to be a stronger currency due to it's banking sector being one of the strongest in the world due to its relatively ultra conservative balance sheet. However, commodity prices are likely hampering its ability to appreciate.
Commodities:
-Oil: Bearish (Short-Term); Bullish (Long-Term)
-Gold: Bearish (See 400 dlrs/ounce)
-Softs: Bullish (Long-Term)
--Long-term bullish as it may be the best inflation hedge down the road. Shorting US Treasuries may be fruitless if they are artificially kept down by the Federal Reserve. However, there are two ways to play this one. One is to very slowly build a position, or the other is to wait and buy later in the year. Commodity prices still are being pulled down to deflation and struggling economies.
A couple of interesting market movements that I witnessed.
1.) VIX- an index that measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500 -jumped 14% percent to 52.65. For historical perspective, I recall that VIX was in the low 10s when I was trading options in 2006-2007. We have seen the 80s last year, and it's quite possible we will continue to have levels in the range of 40 to 60. This quite simply means that buying put options to protect against further losses is no longer cheap. And, if people cannot afford to buy them economically, selling their shares may be the next best thing, which will likely further the sell off that began today.
2.) Twelve (12)-Month US Treasury Bills ticked down about 0.06% to 0.64%. Why care about short-term cash rates? These last couple of weeks we saw the market start to show some improvements. Typically, these improvements have been due to short-sellers closing positions, which drives the prices up. In this particular case, the 12-month Treasury Bill started to improve its interest rate to 0.70% from 0.60%, which indicates money is coming off the sidelines to buy cheap stocks. However, the reversal is illustrating that buyers were burned by their eagerness to come in too early. In order to really consider buying stocks, one would have to see cash rates rise in yield to over 1% on a 12-month maturity, and it would have to come with economic improvements.
3.) There are number of fundamental stories that have hit the wire.
A.) AIG, the big insurance conglomerate, is proving itself a thorn in the side of the Fed and Treasury. $30 billion dollars of more financial aid is going to be required to float this sinking ship as it took one of the biggest losses in history ($.42/share).
B.) Citigroup is still fighting off nationalization rumors as its shares continue to plunge (1.20/share).
C.) Fannie Mae, now under conservatorship, continue to eke out major losses like $25 billion.
D.) About 5 to 6 banks in the Federal Home Loan Bank system, a government agency setup to provide discount loans to commercial banks, have taken steep losses. As a system, they have collectively lost about $300 million in the 4th quarter. See Friday's Wall Street Journal for more details. Most of these losses stem from private label mortgage securities that are now being classed as impaired assets. These losses potentially make it a target for conservatorship like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and impair its ability to issue debt cheaply in order to provide discount loans. The banks hit hardest are those loaning in districts like California, Florida, and other hard hit states. What's important in this story is that so many lending institutions rely fairly heavily on this system for liquidity at cheaper rates. However, it's important to note that the Federal Reserve has stepped in quite a bit as a competitor. Does the story matter? Only, if it's bailed out to tune of tax payer dough and more debt issuance.
E.) "Consumers put aside 2.9 percent of their disposable income in 2008’s fourth quarter, the most since early 2002, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. Deutsche Bank AG economists led by Peter Hooper say savings may reach 9 percent within two years after falling to zero in the third quarter of 2006" (Bloomberg). This is important, because the US has fueled its growth through the consumer. For the US to snap out of a recession, a new driver of growth will have to show up at the door, or consumers will have to regain their confidence. Until then, this could be the biggest problem for the US Economy. So getting long the stock market really requires a thesis that can explain how this economy turns itself around. The major deleveraging at work here, the inability to get good credit terms, etc. will also impede a fast snap back in the markets.
More importantly to think about, China has grown through the US consumer buying its cheap products. China has bought massive amounts of US Treasuries in this exchange. Note, Hillary Clinton is literally begging China to continue buying our debt. A sudden reluctance could cause sharp increases in US Treasury rates, which is why being in short-term maturities is a much safer play. We could see 22% interest like the late 70s and early 80s out of the Carter administration.
F.) Why short the EURO and Pound? The EURO suffers from not acting fast enough on its monetary policy front, that is they did not lower rates as fast as the US did, and they may have to take much more drastic actions as a consequence. They also have a number of weak countries within the union that require bailouts. And, there is risk the currency could fail in its efforts to be a unionized currency. Deutsche Marks anyone? There are also eastern european countries that are interwoven into the European economies. A sovereign default can spark a cascading event.
The Pound has suffered losses on its late to the rate decrease party. British Central Bankers are poised to lower their overnight lending rates to 0.5%- nearly matching US Central Bank's 0.25% rate -as well as engage in quantitative easing. As a smaller economy, the perceived vulnerabilities have lent the US Dollar as the reserve currency and flight to quality currency of choice. British has suffered just as catastrophic bank losses, bank runs, and threats of bank nationalization semi and full.
G.) Pay caps and government bailouts. Catch-22! While banks that take money should be required to cap excessive pay, the top producers will take their relationships else where. And, the bank falls flat. What do you do? If the bank's going to fall flat, why bail it out in the first place. And, this is fundamentally the problem in the marketplace. Investors are fearful of the current administration attempting bank nationalization. There is no investor confident in the banking sector as long as this remains in the air. Even Ben Bernanke does not have the ability to put the kibosh on this one, i.e. he might just fall in line like a good soldier. And without a proper banking system that is efficient and savvy, business becomes just a little bit more expensive. And, if it is politicized, more confidence will be zapped.
---Bottomline: The fundamental condition is still weak. And, this recent stock market drop is more evidence investors are losing confidence in the market. And, it is my contention that the broad market indices will have pared off at least 40% by late in the year if not sooner. I would look to the 4th quarter of 2009 to re-assess where the market is and where it can go. At the moment, cheap stocks are just getting cheaper.
Monday, March 2, 2009
NYT and LGF
New York Times is trying to stay relevant and some of their current articles are wonderful works of journalism or maybe it's because it's the only thing in English and newsprint that I read; either way they had a great article about people still going to movies. In fact, movie attendance has surprised all analysts in how well it is going. Lionsgate, besides being the only pure play, actually has niche films and profitable ones at that. So watch this one though I cannot, currently, see it going up 1000% so as a result I did the next best thing and bought the convertibles on it paying around 5.5%. Ownership has Marc Cuban, Carl Icahn, and the producer of Saw and it is fair to say shareholder equity is treasured in a firm such as this; additionally, management picks projects that make money and are not done for vanity reasons.
A MOVIE MADE BY MY FRIEND--WORTH A WATCH!!!
Hello all!
My short film "Abingdon" from 2007 was just selected as Film of the Day on an Australian online film site:
http://www.portablefilmfestival.com/
It's 8 minutes long and free to watch. Please take a look! I would love to hear your reactions.
"Abingdon" was essentially a 48 hour film -- we set out to burn some leftover 35mm stock (short ends from
"The Good Shepherd") with no real plan and no script, and shot it all in a little over a day. A lot of people worked really
hard to put something fun and spontaneous together, and this is the result.
Already "Abingdon" has screened in a dozen film festivals, it was nominated for an Akira Kurosawa Memorial Award
(along with only 20 other shorts), and I recently received an inexplicable and random myspace message from someone
who had seen the movie in a New Mexico film class and wanted the ending explained...
Thank you to everyone who put their time and effort into making this project. Here is a chance to see and support
it online.
Best,
Lucas
My short film "Abingdon" from 2007 was just selected as Film of the Day on an Australian online film site:
http://www.portablefilmfestival.com/
It's 8 minutes long and free to watch. Please take a look! I would love to hear your reactions.
"Abingdon" was essentially a 48 hour film -- we set out to burn some leftover 35mm stock (short ends from
"The Good Shepherd") with no real plan and no script, and shot it all in a little over a day. A lot of people worked really
hard to put something fun and spontaneous together, and this is the result.
Already "Abingdon" has screened in a dozen film festivals, it was nominated for an Akira Kurosawa Memorial Award
(along with only 20 other shorts), and I recently received an inexplicable and random myspace message from someone
who had seen the movie in a New Mexico film class and wanted the ending explained...
Thank you to everyone who put their time and effort into making this project. Here is a chance to see and support
it online.
Best,
Lucas
Trade and Panic if you must but here is the secret to making long term wealth!!!!
Even if the market continues selling off, I firmly am convinced that these sales levels are buying opportunities of a lifetime. Take your time buying them since this recession may take awhile and remember three things to do when buying these companies:
1) Buy below YOUR (not printed) estimated value....and only if you expect to make 1000% on it, which can come out to be 20% annualized, if you calculate the holding period.
2) Buy if the product is fundamental to a society, like a commodity related product, or one that is unique, established and hard to replicate.
3) You must follow what management has done and will do to safeguard the wealth for shareholders.
1) Buy below YOUR (not printed) estimated value....and only if you expect to make 1000% on it, which can come out to be 20% annualized, if you calculate the holding period.
2) Buy if the product is fundamental to a society, like a commodity related product, or one that is unique, established and hard to replicate.
3) You must follow what management has done and will do to safeguard the wealth for shareholders.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
3 Solutions that I currently see to bail out the US
1) We go Marshall Plan into Africa and rebuild with the UN's support; unlike our confusingly unclear manner in Iraq
2) We mandate that all cars need to be scrapped and only hybrids and electric cars can be owned. That is what you call stimulating demand in a healthy manner.
3) Blame someone--don't like this option since it isn't positive and usually leads to negative feed back.
2) We mandate that all cars need to be scrapped and only hybrids and electric cars can be owned. That is what you call stimulating demand in a healthy manner.
3) Blame someone--don't like this option since it isn't positive and usually leads to negative feed back.
Follow up to Quest Capital (QCC)
Take a look at Quest's whopping dividend (fluctuates between 15-20%). The company provides mortgages up north in Canada and this weekend's IHT talked about Toronto real estate and how it has not cratered as much as in the US.
This bodes well, possibly, for QCC which is geographically diverse, but focused mostly in Canada.
The negative would be the share issuance to provide "ample liquidity" which I didn't believe they needed in the first place.
This bodes well, possibly, for QCC which is geographically diverse, but focused mostly in Canada.
The negative would be the share issuance to provide "ample liquidity" which I didn't believe they needed in the first place.
Follow up to the now $1.48 Citigroup
Yesterday, I was inclined to sell Citigroup out of fear that I am going to hold a $0.40 stock in the near future, but today in the IHT there was a paragraph concerning them that has me pause on this decision.
Instead of paying out dividends to preferred shareholders such as the US and Singapore government, as well as Prince Alwaheed, they are going to convert their shares to common, which is dilutive, but Citigroup still has 1 trillion dollars in assets compared to a market cap of only 9 billion dollars (I took it from Yahoo and realize that this market cap is up in the air to dilution factors). On a leverage basis, as a shareholder, I get 9:1 on my money, which may work against me, but even Mr. Buffett yesterday mentioned how companies such as Citi are eating up the competition with their cheap access to funds.
I would like to see a nice broad market pop so I can get out of the shares, but I don't believe it is wise to liquidate a company that as things improve should benefit immensely from an economic turnaround; just one has to wait awhile on this one.
Instead of paying out dividends to preferred shareholders such as the US and Singapore government, as well as Prince Alwaheed, they are going to convert their shares to common, which is dilutive, but Citigroup still has 1 trillion dollars in assets compared to a market cap of only 9 billion dollars (I took it from Yahoo and realize that this market cap is up in the air to dilution factors). On a leverage basis, as a shareholder, I get 9:1 on my money, which may work against me, but even Mr. Buffett yesterday mentioned how companies such as Citi are eating up the competition with their cheap access to funds.
I would like to see a nice broad market pop so I can get out of the shares, but I don't believe it is wise to liquidate a company that as things improve should benefit immensely from an economic turnaround; just one has to wait awhile on this one.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
