Friday, March 27, 2009

Things don't add up

1+1=2

1) The financials were weak in yesterday's rally
2) Commercial real estate was down early, but closed up.
3) Gold acting very strong in a seasonally weak period
4) Short squeezes, like the one that happened with Porsche, are quick and painful which appears to be the case with short sellers presently. I shorted Apple at about 84 and is now 105 - I mean how high can it go? (famous last words) Of course, I hedge with Cisco, but it has been a laggard until yesterday.

My new theory about bull and bear markets is simply that bull markets go up roughly with periods of spikes while bear markets begin by subtle sell offs then collapses. So the next leg down should be as quick as it goes up. Why? Because everyone that is getting in on this market rally figures that they can get out before the next guy as the market sells off. Which I believe is why the market keeps rallying.

No one believes this rally, still, so it probably can go much higher, but that doesn't mean hedging is inappropriate, but MORE important. TO reduce volatility and have insurance if the sell off begins again in earnest.

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