Monday, December 22, 2008

Logic

CEG, at one time, was trading at $120 a share, and fell as low as 15. Berkshire Hathaway offered, I believe, 28 for the company. But determined to stay independent, CEG sold 50% of its nuclear business to EDF. And the company's share went back down to about 22.

I bring this up concerning logic and longer term perspectives.
1) EDF already had a big stake in the company, so not only is it knowlegable of the company it is now more deeply entwined in CEG's business.
2) CEG's shares sold off due to liquidity issues. By having both Berkshire and EDF interested in the company would imply to me that they are fundamentally cheap. And liquidity issues are not currently a concern.
3) Hedge funds, and now there is talk of commercial real estate developers, can now access loans from the FED, so why can't something essential as power?
4) Hugo Chavez was quoted recently in his want to nationalize a new mall, I believe, in Caracas because it take up too much space in a limited area, which can better be used as a school or hospital. Once again proving that most commercial real estate properties are, in essence, not essential.

CEG is up today and I don't think we will see the low set this year, in this stock in the year ahead and the several ensuing ones as well.

And on a similar note, NRG is trading below EXC bid for the company. Both NRG and CEG are in the nuclear power business, and while cheap, the efforts by three big players in utilities for these assets show their expectations of future results. So these two issues should prove to be excellent investments as the years roll by and my hair gets greyer.

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