AGM--AND I WARN YOU!!!!! THIS STOCK CAN GO UNDER ANY TIME. BANKRUPT. KAPUT. AND LOSE ALL MONEY INVESTED. THIS IS A GAMBLE. COMPLETE. ABSOLUTE. YET I BELIEVE THEIR IS GREAT POTENTIAL IF THEY ARE ABLE TO STAY SOLVENT. MY FRIEND LIKENED IT TO A PAIR OF 6s IN POKER WHEN YOU ARE PLAYING WITH 8 OTHER PEOPLE. THE ODDS SAY YOU CAN WIN BUT NOT OVERWHELMINGLY. I DISAGREE WHICH IS WHY I AM SHARING THIS WITH YOU, MY LOYAL READERS WHOEVER THAT MAY BE...
AGM, this could be a cyclical low, in a long term bull market in agriculture.
I am studying the financials but it is going to take some time.
Here are the facts as I see them:
1) The stock moves currently along with WM. But they are not related.
2) Most of the institutions that owned the stock had to dump it due to their own financial issues
3) But, lets say they start building wind power units throughout rural areas.
Ag stays at an elevated level due to ethanol and worldwide consumption, then I would say we have a winner here.
Or railroads and power plants start to expand, it will be in rural areas. NIMBY applies.
It will raise real estate prices in a deflationary time. Limited supply, increased demand.
4) They loan to a special niche and really missed the bull market in debt. More like Mobile home communities, always a demand
5) Their all time high was a couple of years ago. Ag real estate bull market may be in infancy unlike raging prices in subprime areas.
6) They are allowed to borrow at lower rates.
7) Their financials are horrible due to debt being wildly more than their assets and the credit market is in disarray, it is the only time to get a discount.
8) They could go under but at 50mln mkt cap and over a billion in loans is what I like to call a cheap option. Low trading volume as well.
9) Additionally, most investors cannot buy stocks at such low market caps. Nor would they want to.
10) It gives us a leg up on the future.
11) 48 people work for the company so low fixed costs!!!!
12) Additionally, if they are solvent, they will begin to pay dividends again.
13) SLM and AGM have not gone broke!!! FNM FRE did. I think that is bullish. The financial bankruptcies have occurred like they did with Enron and Worldcom, and before them the tech ones. Now there will be a period of sloshing but when you least expect it BANG! asset appreciation.
14) Berkshire purchased a big stake in Goldman Sachs which appears to me that the bottoming process has started.
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