Monday, August 20, 2007

The Media are Liars

Here is a classic set up. Hurricanes in the news again, and oil and natural gas are down - with the flippant comment "this too shall pass"

The commercial interests in natural gas are at record levels. The corporations that are actively involved in the production and distribution of natural gas are buying more contracts than they produce. The only reason they would be doing that is if their production might be interrupted. These companies don't pay for overpriced gas unless they foresee miserable weather ahead. So they can buy high, and sell HIGHER!

So as an investor/ speculator it would be prudent to own some underpriced natural gas plays: NBR, ROSE, XTO (didnt recommend since it is actually a conservative investment)

I would change my opinion immediately if the commercial interests change their viewpoint.

As for the market in general, I think this week will be called "Volatile Week Hangover" - meaning things are going to be in a ho-hum trading range.

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