Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Interesting Fact and the Market Makes No Sense

So trade senseless in the literal meaning of the word. Dont trade with any of your senses but what the cold hard facts say.

Housing weakness is to the extreme and once again lumber is up!
So what is that telling us?

Last week the biggest winning sector was financials and the biggest losing sector was telecom.
But the reality is that financials are in the hole for billions of dollars that telecoms have in the bank and in orders. So that is a discrepancy that possibly will be reversed this week.

Also, in order to trade senseless, you need to capture the trend. And hold on until proven otherwise. That is how the big money is made and why there is no rush to trade. In bear markets, selloffs occur quickly which causes excitement to short at bottoms right before vicious moves up, so when it is clear that it is indeed a bear market one has time to get in on rally days because sell off days tend to be vicious. In bull markets, the move ups aren't usually as pronounced as bear markets so once it is clear the market is on the upswing you can scale in on good days. This is what IBD has discovered and recommend the paper to everyone.

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