Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Why am I invested in uranium mining????

By all rights there should have been a rally in the uranium complex. If subprime and homebuilders could rally with VERY REAL problems and negative growth then surely a growing industry has a right to rally.
BUT
1) Energy as a sector was weak yeasterday as it is today.
2) Japan earthquake with nuclear power very visible in the news. Who wants to own anything related to it, if this nuclear plant has some radioactive fallout? but I do.
3) And look at CCJ nose dive. It has some serious issues.
Like I said before long any uranium miner, short ccj
4) And ultimately Bloomberg mentioned this weekend how oil is going to $100, a clear sign to short the hell out of the commodity. BUT not natural gas which has languished for over a year. XTO is that largest and safest in natural gas.
5) The price of uranium went down $5 since June. But uranium mining companies dont move in lockstep with the price so it is a fallacy of short term traders. Plus long term orders are the same.
The good news
0) Infrastructure companies speciallizing in nuclear power are strong: SGR, GE, MDR, USU
1) CCJ is looking to buy a miner of uranium to cover the short fall it will face with their mine in Canada. Bloomberg covered it earlier in the day but hasn't mentioned it since, because Paladin is down today. It's a rumor but very reasonable. LOOK AT ALCOA!!!! after the ALCAN rumor the stocks went down!!!!! Only to rally 15% (or there abouts)
2) Discount. These companies have very real assets. And very real cash!
3) Areva the largest nuclear co stock is at record highs. ? would that be if this industry is lousy.
4) WARRANTS and OPTIONS if you can buy them. These represent leveraged buying power on these companies. This is more akin to buying a stock at .20 to the dollar.
URZ uranerz got hammered because they are buying assets in Texas. Shareholders seems displeased at a company trying to grow their assets, which to a mining company is all they really can control. A few months ago, no one would believe that URZ would fall below $5. So now you can buy $5 options on URZ at 5cents--1000%buying power.
As the Shadow says "who know what fear lurks in the shadow of men.."
So I'm taking out a flashlight and shining it on the problem.
And as Rothschild was reputed as saying "buy when there's blood on the street."

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