Sunday, July 29, 2007

Speculative and Long Term Portfolio Update

My speculative play is to short oil. If my theory holds, then oil and gold will go down with the stock market. And just look at natural gas as an energy market that can't find an uptick. It seems to me that on Friday, people were out of the stock market and into oil; instead of going into cash. Like the stock market, oil may be having last spurts of new highs before selling off in kind. It is speculative, since I'm shorting the strongest commodity.

Long term portfolio. These investment should show profit, like water boiling in a pot - not when you are looking at it, but when you least expect it.

1) FXY - Japanese yen to play the end of the carry trend, decreased global liquidity, and market turmoil

2) FXS - Swiss Franc. Was also used in the carry trade. And has the reputation as the highest quality paper, but is not back by gold anymore.

2) GLD - Currency upheaval signaled by the Fed lowering rates to avert deflationary spiral.

Asia is the place to invest. Not Europe nor Britain. They have similar problems that the US has concerning real estate and leverage. And the carry trade was used to buy European currency, not the other way around. So forget Euros and Pounds.

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