Market Down 150 pnts (from all time hights)

People are guilty or hesitant when things are on uncharted territories. There are good reasons to be out of this market, yet there are good reasons to be in the market.
The one reason I would say to stay out of the market is if you have no conviction.

Everyday there is a sell off like this, everyone thinks this is the end to the party. But is that an honest rationalization?

Here is my playbook on the market. First, there has been record low volatility so the market can still go up but in a more choppy way. So volatility is possibly back. But even today, how can one call straight down, volatile? It's a one direction market. Which I guess goes back to the strong convictions category-there are super bulls and super bears but the weak-kneed are just treading water.

Everything this year is tied to the dollar and it's weakness. 1) The FED can lower rates and if they do, BUY commodities and foreign currency in a big way. The dollar WILL collapse and possibly 30yr bonds as well. 2) If the FED keeps rates the same, the companies with primarily domestic business will suffer from consumer weakness and one should hold off from any purchases or BUY puts on the market.

The question to my mind is "what is the FED's role in the global marketplace?" Is it primarily to keep unemployment at low levels at which point they will need to lower rates. Or is it to maintain the dollar as the reserve currency? If that is the case rates will stay the same and they will let the market revalue asset markets.

My money is on keeping rates the same. I really can't see the US sticking the world with an unstable MidEast and a wobbly US dollar that could result in sky high inflation.

Remember can the US really export more with a collapsing dollar? The majority of its production is outside the country and our production capacity is the same as it was in in the 1920s!!!! And is the Fed benevolent? Dwight Eisenhower, before we knew him as IKE, was sent in to squash a peaceful protest of disenfranchised individuals outside the White House in the 30s.

But it is an exciting time to see what we have read in our history books turns out to repeat itself, or not.